Posted on 11/02/2020 5:50:51 AM PST by SpeedyInTexas
You are correct, sir. The mountain is less high.
I think there is a lot of empirical evidence that the turnout spread Tuesday between Republicans and Democrats will be wider then 2016 due to China virus. But tomorrow we will see.
General Election: Trump vs. Biden vs. Jorgensen vs. Hawkins IBD/TIPP
Biden 49, Trump 46, Jorgensen 2, Hawkins 1 Biden +3
Yup, I’m a Nevadan.What Ralston, and everyone else, have no fix on are the crossovers versus 2016. Covid drastically changed Nevada’s economic situation. Is a Hispanic, put out of his casino job by the Covid shutdown, still going to vote D though that is his paty affiliation? Also, I assume Rs know this is a do or literally die election. So I think it is right on the razor’s edge.
It’s fun to slice and dice these numbers, but without knowing how many crossovers there are, it’s hard to say where we stand.
That said, based on the numbers coming into today, assuming Trump and Biden are splitting all NPV 50-50, if Trump is getting only 3% more party crossovers than Biden (e.g., if Trump is getting 10% of Dems and Biden getting 7% of GOP, or if Trump is getting 8% of Dems and Biden is getting 5% of GOP), Trump is ALREADY AHEAD (unless crossovers are tiny - below 5%).
This is true. We always assume baseline or worst-case scenario here.
Sumter Reps now at 82% turnout. I expect them to hit 90% turnout by tomorrow.
I see there’s also a Minimum Wage Increase on the ballot in Florida
Could this cause a unfavorable shift in independents?
yep good stuff
I made the mistake of reading a few replies to that thread.
Several replies alluded to Don Jr. and cocaine use. I only use right-leaning sources for my news, so I don’t know anything about Don Jr. & cocaine.
Any Freepers heard these rumors? Any veracity to these rumors? Or just more disinformation?
Did Don Jr do cocaine? I would imagine a trust fund kid of the 1990s probably did cocaine.
Is he a coke head? He doesn’t seem to be.
I don’t like his girlfriend...but I don’t think he is a horrible, drug addled, fool. He wouldn’t be able to run the business he did if he was a mess.
“So far, 66.2% of all registered Florida Democrats have voted, as well as 65.8% of registered Republicans and 51.5% of no-party-affiliated voters.”
“Heading into Election, 72% of Miami-Dade Republicans have already voted, compared to 64% of Miami-Dade Democrats and 56% of no-party-affiliated voters.”
Statewide slightly higher turnout by Ds so far. Miami- More Rs. 72%! Come on 90%!
Leftists accuse Donald and Don, Jr of being cocaine addicts all the time.
2:08 update as expected DEMS mail in increased last hour
+62- 928 = D +865
+101 - 316 = D +316
+72 - 665 = D +665
or 615 per 20 min update
so far today including yesterdays Miami-dade and Sarasota dumps
Dems up + 444 IPEV ( Rep started in the hole after Miami/dade dump but will end up net +)
dems up 7362 mail ins
net DEMS up +7806
overall Dems up 112,492
3:08 better last HR FOR REPS
+65- 195 D +130
+109 - 80 R +29
+38 -11 R + 27
dems only gained an average of 25 per update
surprised to see an NBC article saying that Trump will win.
Don’t think he’ll be working there much longer
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/biden-leading-trump-2020-polls-expect-election-day-be-repeat-ncna1245282
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.