More shocking numbers from...New Mexico. Yes, New Mexico is in play.

CNN & TargetSmart | October 30, 2020 | bort

[bort]

Folks, the Democrats have set themselves up for the biggest ***-whipping since 1988. Want some more evidence that the media polls are wrong? Check out New Mexico, where roughly half of all registered voters have already voted:

2020 NM early vote data from TargetSmart:

Non-college whites: 41.5% of all early voters

College-educated whites: 24.9% of all early voters.

Non-white vote: 34.6% (vs. 66.4% white)

2016 comparison from NM exit polling per CNN:

Non-college whites: 21%

College-educated whites: 29%

Non-white vote: 51% (vs. 49% white).

Translation: Trump's base is turning out in huge numbers, and the leftist base of college-educated Millennials and liberal Hispanics is not showing up. The polls that are showing leads for Biden are way over-sampling "suburban women" and grossly under-sampling working-class white voters. Folks, this is with HALF of New Mexico's 2016 vote total in. The demographics of the ACTUAL voters who are showing up are incredibly pro-Trump.

Our dopey media still has not picked up on the story of this election: the surge of white, working-class voters all around the country in places like Nevada, SW Florida, Arizona, Colorado, Virginia, etc. This is REAL DATA. That's why The Freeper Decision Desk Crew (Speedy,Ravi,LS,Coop,byecomey and others) keep harping on REAL DATA vs. polls. It's also why we keep harping on DEMOGRAPHICS.

If these NM demographic numbers stay anywhere close to where they presently are, Trump and the down-ballot will win. FYI, most of these NM voters voted BEFORE Biden's "I'm going to phase out oil" debate comments, which will hurt him more in oil-rich NM.

[plushaye]

Interesting. I really hope NM tips red.

I was watching a Real American Politics video about Biden’s comments phasing out oil & gas and fracking. He said there are mainly 3 states whose economies would crash: TX, PA and NM. I was surprised to learn that 3/4 of the NM economy is based on oil & gas. So yes, it would be against the best interests of voters in these states to vote Biden.

I heard from a friend in the Canadian province of Alberta who works in a big oil & gas company which has a lot of projects in the US. The company is bracing for the impacts of a possible Biden administration and has been laying off already. This is really serious stuff for those in the oil & gas business.

[ripnbang]

I think NV, NM and MN are part of Trump’s strategy for a “firewall”, so to speak, in case NC, PA, MI or WI go blue this time, or “expanding the map”, if not.

[tiki]

I guess I shouldn’t be so inclusive, many, especially the diabetic, mid to elderly hispanics and they don’t wear masks because most of them don’t go anywhere.

[tiki]

Our diocese opened for car masses the weeks after Easter and the churches opened up not too long after that and remain open. Many Protestant churches have remained closed the whole time.

[dangus]

>> 4) I don’t understand how there is “no relation” between 2016 exit poll data and current data about who has actually voted? <<

I mean that there is LITERALLY no relation. Exit poll data is based on people who voted on Election Day (and then statistically adjusted by demographics, actual results, etc.); current data, of course, excludes Election-Day data. They’re mutually exclusive, let alone not predictors of each other.

>> 2) TargetSmart uses raw data, voter file info, commercial data banks, to collect voter information. As to college/non-college and race, I trust their numbers. I don’t necessarily trust their voter “models.” <<

Nope. Real data does not include any of the Demographic data TargetSmart uses. They are attempting to model turnout. The only data I can imagine being valid are geography, registration (in the states where that is known) and (in some states) race. You can look at 2018 to see how badly they botched things.

>> 3) A huge portion of the electorate has voted in NM (50% of all registered NM voters). Unless the Dems are holding their hispancic/Millennial base in reserve for Election Day, they are in trouble. <<

That’s what is very hopeful. Supposedly, Democrats were going to turn out HUGE in early voting and Republicans would dominate in Election-Day voting, but early voting is very strong for Republicans.

[Kay]

Thanks.

2 families (friends) moved to Nevada this year from California. Solid conservatives. 4 more votes for Trump.

[bray]

With the virus there are no Dems out harvesting votes. The old folk homes are closed too.

[enumerated]

“Someone on Fox last night...”

Yes, I think it was Robert Cahaly, founder of Trafalgar. He said that young people watching the debates concluded that the Democrats are the party of lockdowns - they are angry - they want everything to go back to normal - safely - but otherwise back to normal.

Trump is promising no more lockdowns, and according to this guy, young people like the sound of it.

Very encouraging, if true.

[CedarDave]

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[rktman]

Looking at the attendees at the peaceful protest gatherings that PDJT appears at sure looks like some 25-55 youngsters showing up. Oh to be 55 again. But that means I’d probably still have to be working. Never mind.

[wardaddy]

The most Latino state.....I hope it’s true

It’s actually the most Amerindian state too they just don’t identify that way

Se hablan Español

[MayflowerMadam]

“I love not being able to understand a word anyone says to me.”

And they’re especially helpful when you’re trying to understand your masked doctor when he’s giving you important information. I just nod my head, go home, and call his P.A. who will explain in un-garbled words.

[shelterguy]

Been there, done that.

[Crusher138]

I live in Rio Rancho. I have seen many Trump signs but very few Biden. Down the hill in Corrales (a very hippy dippy place) it is about 50/50.

Our Governor has kept the state in lockdown for far too long. People are ticked off.

I will not be surprised if New Mexico goes Red.

[CedarDave]

Our Governor has kept the state in lockdown for far too long. People are ticked off.

Rush was just saying that there are indications that a lot of young people are pissed off that they can't get on with their lives and are/will vote for Trump because the Dems don't promise anything but more lockdowns. Biden has said he expects masks to be needed through the end of 2021. The more the Dems promise more of the same the more young voters will pull the lever for Trump.

[LegendHasIt]

Sadly, In NM, it doesn’t much matter who votes, but who counts the votes.

[willk]

We went to the peaceful protest in Minden, Nv. We were surprised by all the young college age people there.

[bray]

It looks like our area is going to be voting over 90% Repub and Independent. If that is statewide look out.

[rktman]

Good. Hip and knee keep me from walking too far. We have some friends that went. There is hope.

[CedarDave]

Sadly, In NM, it doesn’t much matter who votes, but who counts the votes.

Actually, I think that time is mostly past here in New Mexico, except maybe for the absentee ballots, but even there a ballot had to be requested by the voter (and both parties sent out notices to apply for one). I expect the Pubs will check to make sure they are countered properly (they just got a win on drop boxes for absentee votes - they can't be outside and subject to tampering).

I voted in person yesterday during the early voting period. Of course this is a Pub area (no Dem candidates for many races), but all ballots are paper, marked with a permanent marker, and put in an optical reader. Ballots issued have to match check-in numbers and if there is a question on a malfunctioning machine, they can be pulled and countered by hand. However, there have to be enough Pub poll watchers to prevent fraud and that can be a problem in the solid Dem area of northern New Mexico.