Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
Trump voters lie to pole takers or are not reachable. Another pole which means nothing.
Another poll has Trump doing poorly with the 65 and over crowd. I’m a senior and most people in my age group don’t answer phone calls from those they don’t know. They get lots of span/scam calls and are suspicious of those that they don’t know. And if they do answer and find it’s a pollster, they think its just someone who wants to find out personal info about them so they can try to sell them something, and they hang up.
Thanks for the question. In that case, Trump will win the PV, and also the EV comfortably. But I think it is unlikely they will all go to Trump. We may still have some twists and turns until the election, so we will have to see.
No one wants to hear it but we’re behind. Yes, a lot of Americans are this ignorant. They see a virus, riots, temporary unemployment, and they say maybe the other guy will do better. We know the “other guy” is an idiot leading a Marxist party, but the voters we’re talking about don’t understand that. If they did, democrats would never win.
The Trump campaign is committing two deadly mistakes. They went dark on ads when Biden has been using an ad blitz to rehabilitate his image.
And Trump’s campaign isn’t sufficiently attacking Biden. You have to make him an unacceptable alternative.
I’m afraid this new campaign chair is missing the boat.
Yes the economy is important and they’re buying tv now with ads on the economy. But they’ve allowed Biden to escape from a lot of negatives, especially corruption with Hunter. Meanwhile Biden is totally negative against Trump, with the tiniest veneer of positive.
This is the other reason Biden is in the basement. He has a lead.
As demographics change, Democrat voters love to elect worthless dopes like Biden. (Frank Lautenberg).
This isn’t the first campaign to lose by letting their opponent define them during the Summer.
The purpose of these “polls” is to try to set up the narrative when Trump wins that not all the votes were counted.
YouTube also allows viewers to skip Republican ads after a few seconds, but generally forces you to watch Democrat ads of 15 seconds or less all the way through. The in-kind contributions by Google to the DNC are hitting an all-time high in value this cycle.
In 2020 Trump is facing a pandemic for which people are trying to blame him, lots of unemployed people (caused by State govt shutdowns but for which he will get blamed...it happens...), a weaponized MSM, an opponent suffering from dementia with handlers who rarely let him come out to campaign, and yuge rioting etc.
Oh, and fraud.
People still love Trump. But he needs more votes than in 2016. Yes, Biden has weak support, but people who walk around thinking Trump will win by a landslide and it'll be a cakewalk and bad polling numbers are due to undersampling and silent Trump support MAY be right. But let's not be ignorant of reality and headwinds. No other Republican ever faced this onslaught.
Will change after the first debate if there is one.
I can answer that, crowds mean very little.
Thanks for the comment. I wish that were true, but I suspect this "hidden" vote is much less, around 1%, not 5-15%. It is actually more likely that Biden has a silent, unenthusiastic majority supporting him..
President Hillary believed the polls.
Enthusiasm doesn’t matter when every single registered Democrat will somehow manage to “vote” - even if they never get off the couch. This election will be all about the counting - and whether or not fraudulent ballots can be adequately identified and excluded.
Meanwhile, our great leader maintains his 51% approval rating today on Rasmussen’s daily tracker.
3 Debates
Thanks for the question. This election will forever decide the importance of rallies as a proxy for popular support. If Biden wins, we will have to humbly acknowledge that he, not Trump, had a "silent majority."
Scott left Rasmussen Reports in 2013. He wasn’t there in 2016, when they said their polling was the most accurate.
Over sampling college educated again. Weighting it for more working class is how polls should be.
I’m supposed to believe this when the Democrat candidate is non-functional and can hardly leave his basement?
He should be able to address it.
- Faustus said Trump didn’t mislead the public.
- When he started calling for travel bans, the lefties objected, called him xenophobic.
- Dems were telling everyone to go out and enjoy the Chinese New Year.
- Dems and Fauci were saying there is nothing to worry about from this virus well into February.
- Cuomo sent sick people back to nursing homes where tens of thousands died.
- Projections about deaths were in the millions. Would Trump have been “honest” with the American people if he told them millions were going to die?
Trying to stick this on Trump is like mass power of suggestion.
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