Posted on 09/15/2020 6:43:32 AM PDT by nwrep
Note: This is a poll by Scott Rasmussen, separate from and not aligned with Rasmussen Reports. The poll uses a highly optimistic turnout model assuming a 36-37 R-D split, which is the most favorable Republican model of any pollsters, assuming near parity with Dems.
The key findings:
Out of 941 likely voters polled, 48% said they would vote for Biden, while 43% would choose Trump. The president has lost one percentage point since a similar poll roughly two weeks ago, while Biden's share of the likely vote has remained the same.
"GOP voters seem more engaged and more likely to turn out. However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points). Biden has a modest lead among Independents."
The survey of 1,200 Registered Voters was conducted by Rasmussen using a mixed-mode approach from September 10-12. The sample included 941 Likely Voters, defined as those who say they are “definitely going to vote” or “very likely to vote” and who know how they will vote. The Likely Voter sample was 36% Republican, 37% Democrat and 27% Independent.
the rest of the country is not North Carolina. It’s pretty obvious we’re losing Pennsylvania.
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What?
Yawn.....
On October 18 RCP had Trump down 46.2 to 39.1.
7.1 POINTS.
These threads are totally useless. Go VOTE.
Yep, meaningless unless it’s broken down by state.
How is it obvious?
I call BS on all the propaganda below.
However, Biden has a bigger lead within his party (82 points) than Trump does in his (75 points).
Yeah right!!!
What a collection of Debbie Downers on this tread.
Yep.
I’m bookmarking.
Ping.
It’s the lesser of two evils.
Biden will not survive one debate with Trump, much less four.
Avoiding the debates by testing positive & having COVID symptoms might make him look weak to some, but debating Trump will make him look senile to everyone.
People jump from burning buildings, because there is a 1% chance they will survive the fall vs a 0% chance they will survive the fire.
If Biden debates, there is a 0% chance he will be elected. Avoiding the debates reduces his chances, but not to zero.
Well, if this is accurate and not more propaganda, we are ultimately going to have to settle this the old fashion way, just as the Left currently intends should Trump pull it out.
Lefties will be going door to door filling the ballots out for them and bringing them to the mailbox.
They do if the current administration is the only one actually standing for law and order.
You can determine the states that Biden is behind, but close, by listing the states Biden has been campaigning in recently.
The Biden campaign would prefer Biden not hit the road at all. The fact that he is on the road is a desperation move for those states.
Wisconsin, Minnesota, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan.
All these states are in play.
This poll is from Scott Rasmussen. It has no connection with the daily Rasmussen Reports polls.
However, the Rasmussen Reports head to head polls consistently show Trump getting 6-8% less than his Rasmussen Reports approval number. For example if his approval is 51% in Rasmussen Reports, he gets 44% against Biden in Rasmussen Reports. People just don’t vote to throw out a President who they think is doing a good job.
The only apparent explanation is that some people are willing to say they approve of Trump’s performance, but they don’t want to say they’ll vote for him.
Actually they are not working
The problem is we are relying on polling that is broken and biased
Do you think I believe this poll more then any other fake news poll out there?
He claims he polled more republicans and has Trump losing by 5 points and has 23 point drop in republican approval rating from only 914 participants. Big freakin deal
Trump has this in the bag
Here is why
Trump has the working man vote, the union vote is behind Trump
Trump has the small business vote
Trump has the white male vote
Trump will have the suburban female vote, it takes them forever to make of their minds
Trump has improved with black and Latino voters
Biden has the lazy slob vote, they always vote ‘rat
Biden has the black female vote
Biden has the college university woke vote, but they usually don’t vote cause, you know parties, beer, sex, smoking weed get in the way.
Biden has a coalition of gay/muslim/trans votes that don’t matter outside solid blue cities or states
Negatives on Trump
Coronavirus, this is a negative even though he did not create it and tried what he could to stop it, he even redesigned our failed Obama/Biden Testing system that wasn’t designed to handle a pandemic like this. However this is a negative because it happened on his watch.
Riots, even though this is a local police matter, which the president has no authority over, the public will blame him for it
Twitter, his twitter feed scares the crap out of white suburban moms
Fake News, they will write anything and it doesn’t even matter if it is true. Expect more hit pieces till the election, usually one or two a week. Fake news will do everything they can to cover for Biden, including letting him to read off a teleprompter to answer question pre approved by the campaign
Trump hires, he has hired a lot of people, he really didn’t know by the recommendation of GOPee types who hate his guts, John Bolton, Mattis, not firing Comey on day one, Sessions, Rosenwessel etc. All these people made Trump look like a fool for trusting them in the first place.
Biden Negatives
Health/Mental issues, he is very frail and has no idea where he is. This is evident even when the fake news tries to cover it up.
No campaign message, he is running a John Kerry campaign of I am not Trump and thinks that is all he has to do to win. No policies, at least, none that he knows about, will be discussed. He even rehashed the “Joementum” banner from Joe Lieberman’s primary races (he lost of course). Which is just weird.
Hiding in the Basement, visibility is always good for candidates, it is how the public can relate, see them and realize they are real actual people, Hillary did this as well in 2016 and even ignored states that turned out to be important. Hiding Joe isn’t a winning strategy.
Puppet, The man will be a puppet for Jill Biden, Hunter Biden, the Biden family, China, Wall Street and anyone else, he won’t be cognitive to say no, I will not do that, he will sign anything and everything that Jill tells him to do. I also believe he will be in there until he is voted out or passes on. Jill Biden is not going to relinquish her power to Kamala. Hunter is also going to need as much time as possible to make as many deals setting the Biden family up to be powerful and extremely wealthy, think Clinton Foundation type of scams
Trump Positives
Economy, even though the left is trying to blame Trump for the downturn, the American Public still give Trump a higher approval rating on the economy and believe he can turn it around (again).
Record, Trump has an insane record of accomplishments like no other president in recent memory, his foreign policy is America First, and is a great message. His willingness to end foreign wars is a giant plus and resonates well even with some old school liberals (not the rabid freaks who don’t care because they are rich and spoiled and would never go to war anyways)
Democrats yep, one of Trump’s biggest positives is driving democrats nuts and making them look like fools. The problem is the Democrats still think this the 1950’s and we can’t just click on a video and see what they said just 2 weeks ago.
Fake News, even though I made this a negative, but Fake News helps Trump because 4 years of “getting Trump” has turned Trump into Teflon, nothing sticks to him, the woodward attacks are petty and most people are ignoring it. And will go away in a few days
Vast active support from supporters, Trump rallies, Trump parades, boat parades, M A G A song by Ricky Rebel, Trump draws a crowd everywhere he goes, people love him, he is positive and show our country in a good light. Everyone discounts this stuff but it does help, a large active group of supporters is better then a dozen supporters who are taking naps in the audience. Ever watch a Biden rally, the very few he did, his supporters look like they were falling asleep. Not that exciting. Can’t build support for man who is boring.
Demographics are in Trump’s favor, he is building more support in groups the democrats traditionally owned and took for granted, labor, blacks, Latinos, Jews, However Trump is losing support in white suburban moms, white college aged women and seniors. I believe the lost of support in seniors because of the virus and they don’t blame democrats for trying to kill them off, instead they blame the man at the top who didn’t put sick people in with senior population in nursing homes. This might end up costing Trump the election if this doesn’t turn around.
Biden Positives
Barack Obama, he is a rock star in dem circles and he was Obama’s right hand man. Rich woke spoiled privileged white youths love him and will follow him while he calls them racists and bigots, they eat this stuff up. However black males have shown distrust in Obama and more and more believe he is a fraud and did nothing for Black Americans, more are starting to blame Obama for racial tensions and fanning the flames of racism.
Bernie Sanders, every college ages commie loves this old fool. Bernie is the best loser, when he loses, he just gives up easy and let the other side, who cheated him, have it. He surrenders easier then France. But the left love him because hey, young people were kids who loved Santa Clause, and Bernie wants to give away free stuff just like Santa did. However give them a decade or so to grow up and mature and realize that Bernie is a giant fake just like Santa Clause was.
New Media, Biden’s biggest asset is the news media, they will cover everything for him, take ques from his campaign, only asked pre approved question while hiding a teleprompter so he can read his answers.
Social Media companies, Twatter, Fakebook, Instaturd, DikDok, Gaggle, Banana, Microturd etc will be 100% in for Biden and will do whatever they can to suppress Trump supporters and conservatives.
Universities/Public Education will be all in for Biden and will use their campuses to impose indoctrination, I mean “education”
Hollyweird, no doubt they will bash Trump and praise Biden and do what they have always done, shill for leftist causes because it makes themselves feel good with out having to do actually real work for those causes. Why donate 10 million dollars to homeless shelters when you can advocate the government to do that same thing and you get the credit for being a “good person” while everyone else flips the bill for your wonderful “ideas”. That is pretty much Hollywood today
I'd expect Trump to get as huge bump if he destroys Biden in the debates.
Michael Cohen will make an appearance and come up with dozens of new Trump allegations. And the debates would be focused on that garbage and not what really matters. Biden will just have to not crap himself and he will be declared the winner.
The debates are a scam and will be used as a platform to trash Trump with whatever garbage they can come up with that day. All new allegations, will be false of course, but the media doesn’t care about that.
He can't even answer softball questions from reporters without a teleprompter.
Rasmussen Reports (not affiliated with Scott Rasmussen) has Trump at 51% approval today. There is no way he'd lose if that is accurate.
If Biden wins, we will have to humbly acknowledge that he, not Trump, had a “silent majority.”
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And that acknowledgement will be at the point of a literal (or perhaps figurative) gun.
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