Posted on 09/08/2020 5:16:46 AM PDT by Kaslin
It has been said that numbers never lie, but statistics do. A political poll is a relative handful of numbers statistically analyzed and adjusted to yield, hopefully, simple results. On their best days, polls are educated guesses. On bad days, polls are outright lies. The Real Clear Politics National Poll Average has both.
For a poll to be reasonably accurate, it needs a relatively large sample size, a good model reflective of the electorate, and it should include only those people likely to vote, AKA likely voters. The voter model is much more important than either of the other two issues. Get this wrong, and you can get a really skewed result.
One of the basic elements of a voter model is party affiliation. This Gallup party affiliation poll shows that most voters claim to be independents, and those claiming to be either Republicans or Democrats are pretty evenly split. If you average the numbers for 2020, you find that 28.5% claim to be Republicans and 29.7% are Democrats, a gap of just over 1 percentage point. In June 2020, a Pew Research survey found party affiliation at 33% Democrat, 29% Republican, with 34% identifying as independents. There are many other things involved in a voter model, such as age, sex, ethnicity, turnout, etc., but the point is, no national voter model should have a gap in party affiliation between Republicans and Democrats greater than about 3–4% and probably less.
Now let's look at the oft cited Real Clear Politics National Poll Average, shown below, which has Joe Biden at 7.1 percentage points over Donald Trump. Is this an accurate reflection of the presidential race? Probably not.
(Excerpt) Read more at americanthinker.com ...
President Hillary was always way up in the polls.
If you believe Real Clear Politics, you deserved to be conned. RCP Founder Tom Bevan is on WGN Radio in Chicago every week. Bevan is a Democrat operative. Real Clear Politics tries to sell the BS that they are neutral, but in reality, RCP is no better than CNN.
Hillary was up by 10, too.
No Republican presidential candidate has led in 50 years at this point. Polls are faked to raise money for dems.
He might up by more than that! ~sarc Biden needs to be handed a BINGO card. Not the nations nuclear codes.
It all part of the suppress the Republican turnout effort. Happens every time.
If polls showed Biden behind, then it would be less credible in the minds of the Sheeple that Biden actually won the vote.
Biden’s up only 7 on average in the polls, not 10.
If Biden only wins nationally by 3-4 percentage points, Trump still has a good chance to be re-elected thanks to the electoral college. So really if the race tightens another 4 pp in the next few weeks before people start voting it would be tied.
Problem is that convention bounces tend to fade.
They will continue to show Biden ahead or very close so they can justify the results after the ballot harvesting/cheating
Great graphic. I saved it.
He just might be, given all the vote fraud the Dems are setting up this time.
There are real polls and polls intended for consumption by the great unwashed
these were the final poll numbers. they had all tightened up at the end to save face... do you get an equal value you need to look at the phone numbers in early September and compare.
That was done on voice text so just follow the jist LOL
Polls are supposed to adjust for difference in the population.
What is one being conned out of? It’s just a poll.
I don’t even know why they are posted anymore
Polls are often faked by the media, too, in the interest of dollars. Election seasons are their bonanza. Candidates must pay for their advertising up front, and at full rate, so media outlets have a strong motive to keep the races looking close, so both sides keep buying and buying up until Election Day.
The author is mixing his metaphors. The metaphors are, Figures never lie but liars often figure and there 3 kinds of lies: lies; damned lies; and statistics.
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