Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Trump will lose in a landslide because of the economy, new election model predicts
CNN ^ | May 21, 2020

Posted on 05/21/2020 4:39:12 AM PDT by Rennes Templar

New York (CNN Business)The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.

Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.

The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.

The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.

"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."

The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).

(Excerpt) Read more at ntknetwork.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: ballotharvesting; cnn; duplicate; economy; electionfraud; fakenews; poll; votefrauddatabase; voteharvesting
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-118 next last
To: Rennes Templar
The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide...

I'm curious. Serious question: just what makes them think their model - obviously based on previous election cycles - has anything to do with the current situation? The media likes to toss around the term "unprecedented" - in fact we heard that just about weekly during bammy's reign of criminality. Apparently everything right down to a black man blowing his nose in the Oval Office was "unprecedented!" but I digress.

Seriously, yes a lot of numbers and economic indicators are way off, skewed beyond all reason or experience. But it is all artificial - we did it to ourselves voluntarily. (forget most of the shutdown orders, probably none of them would stand up to review in terms of being Constitutional). So a model based on past experience is in completely uncharted waters here. I'm not saying the model is useless, I'm saying it is worse than that.

Not only are there problems with trying to model something that's never happened before, they are trying to look into a future that is entirely unpredictable. Does anyone believe any economist or politician knows to any degree of certainty what the economy is going to look like in 2 months? 4 months? 5 months? If someone says yes to that - check your wallet, they've got a bridge to sell too. The only people who might say they know what it'll look like are leftist democrats - they are very intentionally trying to keep the economy down. They are the ones trying to keep draconian lock-downs in place. They are deliberately hurting their economies and their citizens in order to try to wrest control from President Trump. President Trump wants to "Make America Great Again" and the leftists and democrats are perfectly happy to keep America down in an attempt to gain power.

61 posted on 05/21/2020 5:39:17 AM PDT by ThunderSleeps
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

CNN = Caca News Network. All the fake news that’s unfit to broadcast. Hardly a bit of truth but all the lies for leftist freak consumption.

Proudly serving 99% lies for 40 years because we know how gullible you are. Tune in today so we can tell you what to think and teach you how to hate everything to the right of Karl Marx.

May the propaganda be with you for another 40!


62 posted on 05/21/2020 5:42:36 AM PDT by Boomer (Dems can't think; they can only 'emote')
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

These models are bogus. Try modeling a pandemic. It has never been done before and given the problems of models for deaths during this pandemic highly suspect. I would expect this junk from CNN. How the public views this whole thing is hard to determine. What this is really all about is who the voters think can bring us out of this Funk. My bet is on Trump.


63 posted on 05/21/2020 5:44:33 AM PDT by Destroyer Sailor (Revenge is a dish best served cold)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: laconic
This was followed by Republican wins in formerly Dem held congressional seats in Calif and Wisconsin, and the R sweep of the city council, Dem for 20 years, in Staunton, VA this week.

Without the DNC general election vote fraud machine in action, democrats would lose more than half their elected positions.

64 posted on 05/21/2020 5:45:06 AM PDT by Go Gordon (I gave my dog Grady a last name - Trump - because he loves tweets.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

Horse hockey.


65 posted on 05/21/2020 5:46:43 AM PDT by Eric in the Ozarks (Baseball players, gangsters and musicians are remembered. But journalists are forgotten.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

Trump’s the only one who can bring it back. The hate America, leftist/commie/dem/socialist/fascist/lib filth would rather it stays where it is.


66 posted on 05/21/2020 5:51:15 AM PDT by Carriage Hill (A society grows great when old men plant trees, in whose shade they know they will never sit.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: dontreadthis

NOTHING from CNN is believable!!


67 posted on 05/21/2020 5:52:48 AM PDT by bantam
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Adder

Based on the Iowa model of taking months to count votes.


68 posted on 05/21/2020 5:55:02 AM PDT by cnsmom
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

This isn’t front page news. The “model” is trash. It’s already been debunked and was posted yesterday.


69 posted on 05/21/2020 5:57:37 AM PDT by TexasGurl24
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

No reasonable American is voting for a man with dementia


70 posted on 05/21/2020 5:59:58 AM PDT by italianquaker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: italianquaker

Biden is leading in national polls

Rational thinking is presently irrelevant


71 posted on 05/21/2020 6:01:15 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 70 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

1. It’s not a true economic downturn, most of the unemployed are temporaraly furloughed due to the virus. This outdated model fails to take that into account, instead focusing in raw numbers. So due to circumstances, things are not as black and white simplistic as the model suggests.

2. The basic economic fundamentals are still good, with Blue states the hardest hit economically due to the lockdowns imposed by overreacting governers. Remove the lockdowns and employment numbers will start to shoot back up, and there’s growing pressure on those states to do so.

3. Most swing voters know the virus caused the economic downturn, and not the policies of the President.


72 posted on 05/21/2020 6:04:46 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

Trump’s leadership is the only thing keeping our bucket of rusty bolts afloat.


73 posted on 05/21/2020 6:06:37 AM PDT by Kirkwood (Follow your Inner Trump)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: bert

“Biden is leading in national polls”

Fortunately not in the swing states.


74 posted on 05/21/2020 6:06:57 AM PDT by ScottfromNJ
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 71 | View Replies]

To: ScottfromNJ

Complacency is dangerous and not justified.


75 posted on 05/21/2020 6:09:45 AM PDT by bert ( (KE. NP. N.C. +12) Progressives are existential American enemies)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 74 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

CNN no doubt using the Imperial model.

Again.

>>snicker<<


76 posted on 05/21/2020 6:10:05 AM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Gnome1949

“You can’t beat somebody with NOBODY. “

Of course, so who will the democraps introduce at their August convention?


77 posted on 05/21/2020 6:14:30 AM PDT by CodeToad (Arm Up! They Have!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 34 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

78 posted on 05/21/2020 6:17:21 AM PDT by Jeff Chandler (BLACK LIVES MAGA)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Rennes Templar

Their poll gave results they didn’t like, so they tweaked a model to get the story that they wanted.


79 posted on 05/21/2020 6:17:27 AM PDT by Pollster1 ("Governments derive their just powers from the consent of the governed")
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Jeff Chandler

80 posted on 05/21/2020 6:23:09 AM PDT by Magnum44 (My comprehensive terrorism plan: Hunt them down and kill them.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 78 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first previous 1-20 ... 41-6061-8081-100101-118 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson