Posted on 05/21/2020 4:39:12 AM PDT by Rennes Templar
New York (CNN Business)The economy has gone from President Donald Trump's greatest political asset to perhaps his biggest weakness.
Unemployment is spiking at an unprecedented rate. Consumer spending is vanishing. And GDP is collapsing. History shows that dreadful economic trends like these spell doom for sitting presidents seeking reelection.
The coronavirus recession will cause Trump to suffer a "historic defeat" in November, a national election model released Wednesday by Oxford Economics predicted.
The model, which uses unemployment, disposable income and inflation to forecast election results, predicts that Trump will lose in a landslide, capturing just 35% of the popular vote. That's a sharp reversal from the model's pre-crisis prediction that Trump would win about 55% of the vote. And it would be the worst performance for an incumbent in a century.
"It would take nothing short of an economic miracle for pocketbooks to favor Trump," Oxford Economics wrote in the report, adding that the economy will be a "nearly insurmountable obstacle for Trump come November."
The model has correctly predicted the popular vote in every election since 1948 other than 1968 and 1976 (although two candidates lost the popular vote but won the presidency in that span, including George W. Bush in 2000 and Donald Trump in 2016).
(Excerpt) Read more at ntknetwork.com ...
I'm curious. Serious question: just what makes them think their model - obviously based on previous election cycles - has anything to do with the current situation? The media likes to toss around the term "unprecedented" - in fact we heard that just about weekly during bammy's reign of criminality. Apparently everything right down to a black man blowing his nose in the Oval Office was "unprecedented!" but I digress.
Seriously, yes a lot of numbers and economic indicators are way off, skewed beyond all reason or experience. But it is all artificial - we did it to ourselves voluntarily. (forget most of the shutdown orders, probably none of them would stand up to review in terms of being Constitutional). So a model based on past experience is in completely uncharted waters here. I'm not saying the model is useless, I'm saying it is worse than that.
Not only are there problems with trying to model something that's never happened before, they are trying to look into a future that is entirely unpredictable. Does anyone believe any economist or politician knows to any degree of certainty what the economy is going to look like in 2 months? 4 months? 5 months? If someone says yes to that - check your wallet, they've got a bridge to sell too. The only people who might say they know what it'll look like are leftist democrats - they are very intentionally trying to keep the economy down. They are the ones trying to keep draconian lock-downs in place. They are deliberately hurting their economies and their citizens in order to try to wrest control from President Trump. President Trump wants to "Make America Great Again" and the leftists and democrats are perfectly happy to keep America down in an attempt to gain power.
CNN = Caca News Network. All the fake news that’s unfit to broadcast. Hardly a bit of truth but all the lies for leftist freak consumption.
Proudly serving 99% lies for 40 years because we know how gullible you are. Tune in today so we can tell you what to think and teach you how to hate everything to the right of Karl Marx.
May the propaganda be with you for another 40!
These models are bogus. Try modeling a pandemic. It has never been done before and given the problems of models for deaths during this pandemic highly suspect. I would expect this junk from CNN. How the public views this whole thing is hard to determine. What this is really all about is who the voters think can bring us out of this Funk. My bet is on Trump.
Without the DNC general election vote fraud machine in action, democrats would lose more than half their elected positions.
Horse hockey.
Trump’s the only one who can bring it back. The hate America, leftist/commie/dem/socialist/fascist/lib filth would rather it stays where it is.
NOTHING from CNN is believable!!
Based on the Iowa model of taking months to count votes.
This isn’t front page news. The “model” is trash. It’s already been debunked and was posted yesterday.
No reasonable American is voting for a man with dementia
Biden is leading in national polls
Rational thinking is presently irrelevant
1. It’s not a true economic downturn, most of the unemployed are temporaraly furloughed due to the virus. This outdated model fails to take that into account, instead focusing in raw numbers. So due to circumstances, things are not as black and white simplistic as the model suggests.
2. The basic economic fundamentals are still good, with Blue states the hardest hit economically due to the lockdowns imposed by overreacting governers. Remove the lockdowns and employment numbers will start to shoot back up, and there’s growing pressure on those states to do so.
3. Most swing voters know the virus caused the economic downturn, and not the policies of the President.
Trump’s leadership is the only thing keeping our bucket of rusty bolts afloat.
“Biden is leading in national polls”
Fortunately not in the swing states.
Complacency is dangerous and not justified.
CNN no doubt using the Imperial model.
Again.
>>snicker<<
“You can’t beat somebody with NOBODY. “
Of course, so who will the democraps introduce at their August convention?
Their poll gave results they didn’t like, so they tweaked a model to get the story that they wanted.
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