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Inaccurate Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns
The Federalist ^ | March 25, 2020 | Madeline Osburn

Posted on 03/25/2020 4:09:57 AM PDT by Kaslin

How a handful of Democratic activists created alarming, but bogus data sets to scare local and state officials into making rash, economy-killing mandates.


As U.S. state and local officials halt the economy and quarantine their communities over the Wuhan virus crisis, one would hope our leaders were making such major decisions based on well-sourced data and statistical analysis. That is not the case.

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is “built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling.”

An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to “flatten the curve.” But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.

When Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced a shelter-in-place order on Dallas County Sunday, he displayed COVID Act Now graphs with predictive outcomes after three months if certain drastic measures are taken. The NBC Dallas affiliate also embedded the COVID Act Now models in their story on the mandate.

The headline of an NBC Oregon affiliate featured COVID Act Now data, and a headline blaring, “Coronavirus model sees Oregon hospitals overwhelmed by mid-April.” Both The Oregonian and The East Oregonian also published stories featuring the widely shared data predicting a “point of no return.”

(Excerpt) Read more at thefederalist.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Editorial; News/Current Events; US: Oregon; US: Texas
KEYWORDS: agitprop; coronavirus; covid19; covidactnow; democrats; demonrats; economy; hysteria; illadvised; imperialcollege; lockdowns; media; model; neilferguson; oregon; quarantine; science; state; texas; unitedkingdom; wuhanvirus
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To: bert

“The phenomena is asymptotic extrapolation

Aggregating isolated numbers and creating a general condition creates a false picture”

In other words, garbage in, garbage out?


61 posted on 03/25/2020 6:32:59 AM PDT by billyboy15
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To: Zhang Fei

I only have 3 (2 1/2 really since 1 of those is valved) N95 masks left over from years ago. Haven’t used them yet, but having so few i want to be careful not to damage them. Heating them in the oven still sounds like the way to go.


62 posted on 03/25/2020 6:34:49 AM PDT by FreedomForce
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To: goldstategop

Dr. John Campbell has morphed into a right fear merchant too. Why they aren’t flooding the space with HCQ and then letting the results come in is telling.

This is an OP.


63 posted on 03/25/2020 6:36:25 AM PDT by RinaseaofDs
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To: Zhang Fei

330 million masks (which could be per day) puts a big strain on the medical supply lines that are already strained. The government would have to procure and supply the masks as well, because I know such items are hard to get in my area right now.

Regarding your tag line, I once had a 76 Grand Le Mans. Mine had the inboard-outboard motor! I often called it my “land yacht”.


64 posted on 03/25/2020 6:43:12 AM PDT by MortMan (Shouldn't "palindrome" read the same forward and backward?)
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To: goldstategop
True-but remember, under the law, all businesses have to meet their ‘due diligence’ obligations .

Down the road, if we can think that far, no business owner or concern wants to be sued for ignoring or overlooking their duty to employees or the public in general.

They're stuck in that lawyers trap, so they can't afford to be casual about reports of a ‘pandemic.

65 posted on 03/25/2020 6:43:14 AM PDT by SMARTY ("Nobility is defined by the demands it makes on us - by obligations, not by rights".)
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To: Montaignes Cat

Never underestimate the absolute ignorance of the American Sheeple.


66 posted on 03/25/2020 6:52:30 AM PDT by JayAr36 (The worthless dispicable party must be destroyed)
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To: Kaslin
The man behind the projections is refusing to make his code public.

Dangerous charlatan.

67 posted on 03/25/2020 6:59:58 AM PDT by NobleFree ("law is often but the tyrant's will, and always so when it violates the right of an individual")
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To: SanchoP

And both have been correct for quite some time now.


68 posted on 03/25/2020 8:13:09 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (We are governed by the consent of the governed and we are fools for allowing it.)
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To: Zhang Fei

Oh but face masks are only effective for medical workers. You don’t know how to fit them properly or something. They only help to prevent the spread of the virus from infected people.

Do the people saying these things actually believe them, are they that stupid or do they think we are all stupid enough to believe them?

I’ve heard enough lies, half-truths and misleading statements made to last a life time during this mess.


69 posted on 03/25/2020 8:16:23 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (We are governed by the consent of the governed and we are fools for allowing it.)
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To: Kaslin

That guy presenting the model is chinese?

Instant credibility right?


70 posted on 03/25/2020 8:17:26 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (We are governed by the consent of the governed and we are fools for allowing it.)
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To: goldstategop

If Obama was still President ( God forbid ) NOTHING WOULD HAVE BEEN SHUT DOWN.


71 posted on 03/25/2020 8:19:27 AM PDT by central_va (I won't be reconstructed and I do not give a damn....)
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Comment #72 Removed by Moderator

To: AppyPappy

I won’t pile on the correction.

Is that expressed as a % of the entire population?


73 posted on 03/25/2020 8:26:25 AM PDT by Sequoyah101 (We are governed by the consent of the governed and we are fools for allowing it.)
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To: wastoute
It has been known for almost a millennia that quarantine is the most (and until recently only) effective thing you can do. In the past the reason to act quickly to an epidemic was because if you failed to your neighbor would swoop in and take everything while you were on your back. Quarantine has been a military maneuver more than anything else, historically.

Also historically, a quarantine was of a ship, or a person, place, or area, known to have a contagious vector. It was never just a complete shutdown of society everywhere, especially in places that were contagion-free.
74 posted on 03/25/2020 8:39:14 AM PDT by Svartalfiar
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To: Svartalfiar

There hasn’t been a pandemic like this in a century. Everything is unprecedented. So much so the word becomes meaningless. “Novel” covers it. The sun coming up this morning was unprecedented.


75 posted on 03/25/2020 8:40:56 AM PDT by wastoute (Government cannot redistribute wealth. Government can only redistribute poverty.)
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To: Kaslin

Houston and Dallas are on Stay at Home orders, until April 3rd.

Gov Abbott won’t issue state wide, since MOST counties have no cases.....at this time.


76 posted on 03/25/2020 8:42:21 AM PDT by Jane Long (Praise God, from whom ALL blessings flow.)
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To: Buckeye McFrog
When the “experts” first came to him on this they were pitching mortality rates of 4 to 5 percent. Faced with those staggering numbers of course he went to DEFCON 1.

The actual number will probably settle somewhere close to South Korea’s 0.7%.


Given their current caseload, SKorea's numbers can't hit a 0.7% CFR. With 9137 total cases, 126 deaths, and 3730 recoveries per Johns Hopkins, SKorea currently has a mortality rate of 3.27%, and a best-case CFR of 1.38%. And that's assuming every single current case recovers, and there are no further deaths. Unlikely.

Even if we assume 20% of cases go undiscovered (unlikely due to SKorea's extensive testing, it's maybe 5% at most), that still leaves the CFR at 1.10%.
77 posted on 03/25/2020 8:54:39 AM PDT by Svartalfiar
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To: MV=PY

The hoax is the level of criticality.

Why believe models that show hundreds of thousands of deaths HERE, but not even close to what actually happened in China?


78 posted on 03/25/2020 9:23:21 AM PDT by ReaganGeneration2
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To: ReaganGeneration2
"Why believe models that show hundreds of thousands of deaths HERE, but not even close to what actually happened in China?"

Great question! Do you have better data?

If so, will you please share?

79 posted on 03/25/2020 10:49:58 AM PDT by MV=PY (The Magic Question: Who's paying for it?)
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To: Travis McGee

The CFR is NOT 5.7%!


80 posted on 03/25/2020 10:57:32 AM PDT by FreeReign
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