Posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen
Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
“Bottom line there is some number of people who show no symptoms and don’t bother to get tested. That increases the number of infections by some percentage.”
Not really. In SK there is massive testing and contact tracing. They have a pretty good handle on who’s infected, including the asymptotics. They still have over 1% DCR and an unknown final CFR.
If there were a horde of asymptotics running around they’d be generating hotspots all over the place, because asymptotic infected can be contagious. Yet these hotspots are not appearing in SK, so this apocryphal horde of asymptotics cannot exist. The high level of testing would have provided evidence of this group many times over.
The 86% number is the percentage of both mild and asymptotic cases among those confirmed from testing. It used to be 80%, then 85%, now it’s 86% (although one guy claimed it was 99% in SK but that doesn’t seem to be working out too well for the SK cases that keep dying at a steady pace). Looks like there is some creep in those numbers that can’t be attributed to any solid evidence, but just the same, there is no group of infected that don’t have symptoms, don’t infect others and don’t test positive. People like that are called ‘healthy’ (at least with regards to CV).
A fair number of serious cases are appearing among younger folks. Just takes them longer to get sick enough to need hospitalization.
The original demographics were heavily skewed toward older folks due to the lack of honest reporting by China and the fact that most of the non-Chinese that got it early and died fastest were old people and higher level management types bopping around on cruises and business trips. Now the virus has had time to assert itself and the real demographics are coming out.
CV has essentially the same age-mortality distribution as the flu, but with a higher amplitude.
The death rate is bad but it's not the problem. The problem is that 20% of those who get it will require hospitalization. 15% will need oxygen and 5% will need icu treatment.
When 5% are critically ill JUST the icu beds we would need are 1,150,000. There are not NEAR that number of ICU beds in the USA. There are less than 1 million hospital beds of all types in the whole usa...and those are already at 60% to 70% capacity at any one time.
When this happens the system is overwhelmed and the CV death rate goes up to around 8-10%. Not to mention the lack of care for other diseases, elective surgeries, etc etc
That 1.12 million dying is amongst the 20 percent of the covid people needing to be hospitalized of that 70 million you surmised or 14 million needing to be hospitalized. Currently 80 percent seem to be able to recover at home but 20 percent need some type of hospitalization.
Our hospital systems cannot withstand 14 million people needing to be hospitalized even it the 14 million were spread out over time. That is covid hospitalizations along with strokes, major traumas, cancer related crises (like infections 7-14 days after chemo, MI’s, diabetic ketoacidosis crises, sickle cell crises, ect. Get the picture? That is why they are all so spooked.
“Assuming the absolute worst - 7% infection rate and 1.6% death rate - that works out to 370,000 nationally.”
Already demonstrated that your 7% number is ridiculous UNLESS the drastic containment measures you all are so upset about actually happen.
“For comparison - the influenza infection rate is usually above 30% in December through February.”
If you FluBros get your way, the Wuhan virus will become endemic, and with no vaccine or existing immunities, only a 30% infection rate is a pipe dream. You would be looking at more than the 70% you scoff at. The only hope then would be that the treatments that are being developed and tested turn out to be as promising as they seem and can be scaled up quickly. Let’s hope they are and can be delivered. meantime, contain, contain, contain.
And the official estimate of the number of illegals in the US has not been updated for decades. That’s why 11 million is so laughable. It is easily twice that, probably more. Why do you think the Dems don’t want the question on the census? Because if they get to count illegals they get more reps in the House, and eventually more voters when they get granted citizenship or their anchor babies get to voting age.
“Well it better git ta killin cause flu season is almost over.”
Not the flu. And it seems to do well enough in warm climates. I wouldn’t bet lives on it dying down from the weather. We can hope, though.
“I keep asking people why they did not demand that we shut down the entire country last October, when flu season began?”
It’s simple. The flu is everywhere. You can’t avoid it. You’re exposed multiple times per year, anywhere in the world. If we could contain the flu, if it were feasible to do so, we would. It isn’t and we can’t. But we do try mitigation and it presumably saves some lives.
CV still has lots of people it hasn’t met, yet.
“Re: “You misstated the rate of positives. It’s 11%, more than 50% higher than you claim...””
I am repeating what the CDC said TODAY. Maybe the CDC should talk to the state of Washington.
Perhaps we’re discussing different populations and that’s why we have different numbers, but until comprehensive testing is actually underway, the results will be tainted by a lot of known positives that were tested routinely rather than random testing to determine the real statistic.
“chinavirus started in china and is now reduced to almost no new cases. How many people died in china from coronavirus compared to the number of Americans that died from the flu?”
If you believe the Chinese numbers you are a fool.
The real number of people that died in Wuhan alone - the place it started and where they tore up the roads and put a military cordon around and abandoned to its fate as the HCS collapsed - is in the hundreds of thousands according to the reports from the people inside there running the crematoriums (there’s more evidence that supports this, also). Way more than Americans that died from the flu.
Do you think Italy could surpass the official Chinese death toll with half the cases when the Italians (and it looks like the Spanish and the French may be in the same boat) are actually trying to save as many as they can and didn’t just abandon a whole city to let the disease burn out?
The number comparison between the flu and CV is inherently dishonest. You can read the reasons why in several of the other posts on just this thread. Or countless others. It’s not the flu.
Re: “I am repeating what the CDC said TODAY.”
Are you claiming that the CDC said the infection rate in Washington state is 11%?
Please send me the link. Thanks.
In the meantime...
Washington state did 3,000 more tests yesterday on high risk individuals.
Our infection rate is now down to 6.6% - 20,712 tests - 1,376 positive.
That makes eight straight days that our infection rate has been stable or declined.
Heading for the store - I will respond to the rest of your Comments later this evening.
When doing the math it helps to use the actual numbers. From Wikipedia:
The 2009 flu pandemic in the United States was a novel strain of the Influenza A/H1N1 virus, commonly referred to as "swine flu", that began in the spring of 2009. The virus had spread to the US from an outbreak in Mexico.
As of mid-March 2010, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) estimated that about 59 million Americans contracted the H1N1 virus, 265,000 were hospitalized as a result, and 12,000 died.
The so-called Swine Flu has about the same R0 as the "common" flu, and the 2009 pandemic was a better than average flu year in terms of deaths (fewer is better). CV has a R0 estimated to be 2 to 3 times as high, and based on the best results we've seen anywhere in the world, kills 10 times as many. If left unchecked, statistically it would kill - using the relatively less dangerous Swine Flu as a benchmark - 120,000 people. However, the proper benchmark is not the weak Swine Flu, but the average of all the flu strains. That gives us a 600,000 death toll. Furthermore, that assumes that CV is only going to infect the same 60 million, an unlikely outcome given its higher transmissibility and the lack of any known preexisting immunities. And that also assumes it goes away in the warm weather - something we hope for but can't yet count on. There is a legitimate reason the whole world is freaking out.
“Similar but kills old people more and everyone else less, and hasn’t infected anywhere close to the number regular flu does every year.”
The original stats are skewed by the demographics of the infected from outside China.
This thing tracks the death-age distribution of the flu a lot closer than was originally reported, but with a much larger (10x) amplitude.
A lot of younger folks are appearing in the hospitals and ICUs now.
If this thing becomes as widespread as the flu, a lot more people will die from it, our HCS will collapse, and then a lot more people will die because they can’t get treatment at all, and anything else you might want a hospital for to save your life will be out of the question.
There is a reason Trump sent a hospital ship to NYC to handle everything BUT CV cases. The hospitals will be swamped with CV and won’t be able to handle anything else. Hopefully it is just precautionary rather than expected.
Whoops - forgot to help you with your math.
You wrote: “You misstated the CFR. The number you gave is the Deaths-to-Cases Ratio which includes unresolved cases. The CFR is currently (150 dead)/(150 dead + 106 recovered) or 59% at this time.”
The Encyclopedia Britannica disagrees:
“Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time.”
https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate
Hope this helps?
It is not the flu and serious but you are wrong on the fatality rate you quoted. (4%) Remember the fatality rate is deaths/infected. No reputable scientist is now quoting the number you used (they were but the number is steadily dropping at least for over all rate. As more are tested the consensus is that more people had a mild case and went unreported than originally thought. Most estimates range from a high of 1.4% to as low as .02% Flu is typically .01% So still serious. Treatment wih hydroxychloroquine may drop the rate considerably more.
The current fatality rate coming out of China is 1.4% , out of S Koren 1%, Germany less than .02, and the US number has fallen to 1.5%. As more are being tested the fatality rate is dropping and the % that are rated as mild is growing, now up to 95%.
Italy is the outlier until you know that 1) the # 1 destination for Chinese tourist is Italy, thousands of Chinese were touring Italy right through Dec/January, Italy has the most business ties with China and extensive travel, and 5% of Italy’s population were born in China with family visiting frequently. , speculation is that over 400,000 have it in Italy, lowering their fatality %
“So if there are future wave of wuflu, I expect the same.”
Most likely. This first wave is potentially pretty bad if not contained, however.
On the other hand, the first wave of the Spanish Flu was called “the three day fever” and dismissed as a nuisance. Then the next year it killed millions.
Spanish Flu is not typical of how these things go, but it isn’t certain that the effects are going to be diminished.
Do the math.
“Please. If that old malaria drug gets approved for treatment in the next couple of weeks, the body count might not even surpass 10,000, assuming it works consistently. Hospitals not being slammed, leaving the ICU in days instead of weeks, etc.”
It’s very promising. Hoping it works out that well or better. Then we can make tons of it to hand out like candy in the third world and get back to the business of extracting ourselves from anything China.
I still didn’t buy anything I wasn’t going to buy, anyway. But I don’t have to leave my house for months if I don’t want.
“800 people on board, 710 test positive, 300 have symptoms, 7 dead, 14 still critical, meaning at most 21 will die.”
Not gonna rely on that critical count. Supposedly almost all of the remaining SK cases were “mild” (when they were at DCR 0.7%) yet they chalk up another handful of deaths each day and now the DCR is over 1%. And they have the most comprehensive data we’ve garnered thus far. They know pretty much where all the cases are.
The stats from the DP are not pure. They were not all quarantined together, but rather “chunked” which means there were groups isolated from each other but not isolated within the group itself. They had masks, etc., and the AC systems were multiple and separate. I expect the transmission was largely by the crew from group to group and then among the group. In any case it was not a pure petri dish situation.
“I would be shocked if we hit 100,000 dead. I’ll be shocked it Italy hits 100,000 dead.”
I agree on both. In fact, I doubt we will crack 10k - if that malaria drug works as advertised. Italy is still in for some serious pain, but maybe not as bad as it looks. They have their own CDC equivalent to deal with and probably can just dispense the drugs by edict.
A great deal of the credit for avoiding such a high death toll is due to the travel restrictions and other containment efforts of the Trump administration and we need to shout that far and wide and drown out the inevitable liberal blame attack that is already underway.
“If not for President Trump, we’d be Italy.”
“Are you claiming that the CDC said the infection rate in Washington state is 11%?”
I am claiming that the CDC spokesperson in today’s briefing stated an 11% positive rate from testing. You seem to claim WA has the most infections (I think it’s NY, though). That is all I am saying.
“Our infection rate is now down to 6.6% - 20,712 tests - 1,376 positive.”
Good news. No lurking horde of asymptotics, apparently.
The CFR is still pretty unknown for the chinese virus, though. Mass testing is the only way to know.
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