Posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen
Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
She may be including illegals that aren’t regularly counted—so figure may be more accurate.
70 million is obviously a conservative estimate, whether because she thinks a vaccine will be quick, the weather will give an extended respite, she’s counting on masssive sustained social distancing or whatever.
She is clearly referring to the 70 million as an initial wave, with possible subsequent waves getting it into the millions. (The UK for example is projecting a worst case of 80% infection.)
I think we’ll have effective treatments before then, but there is nothing wrong with her math. No need for the patronizing concern.
Re: Does that count illegal aliens?
The Census Bureau does count illegals - but, their number is about 11 million, which many people scoff at.
Re: cruise ship data shows 16% infected
Fortunately, most people do not live or work on ships.
The University of Washington closed a couple days ago.
Not one student was infected at that time.
Re: Half of those die. 6.6/2=3.3 million
I do not understand your calculation.
We have more than 8 weeks of data in Washington state.
Assuming the absolute worst - 7% infection rate and 1.6% death rate - that works out to 370,000 nationally.
For comparison - the influenza infection rate is usually above 30% in December through February.
I agree with you.Permanent lung damage and possibly having to drag an oxygen bottle around with you the rest of your life is good reason to avoid the virus, even if the odds are it won’t kill you. I had the flu as a child in 1957, and had a bout with pneumonia a few years ago, and neither are something I’d want to repeat. That case of the flu I had in ‘57 was bad enough that I remember having fever so bad I hallucinated at times. I’ve had minor cases of flu since, but nothing like that..
The doctor is a political-agenda-advancing quack. Shut up.
#METOO He still has like 75 billion left over in his pocket! That means we can get a little bit more! /s
You have made some serious assumption errors.
Eventually virtually everybody will be infected until herd immunity takes over, achieved by survival or vaccination.
Without containment efforts to slow that down, it would all happen at once, overwhelming our HCS, like in Italy and Wuhan.
You misstated the CFR. The number you gave is the Deaths-to-Cases Ratio which includes unresolved cases. The CFR is currently (150 dead)/(150 dead + 106 recovered) or 59% at this time. Eventually that 59% and that 1.6% will converge, when enough cases have resolved, but we don’t know what that final number will be, yet. It might even be less than 1.6% if the fantasy that there is some large pool of asymptomatic, noncontagious infected out there turns out not to be a fantasy after all. However, the number is likely to increase, not decrease, as cases resolve, and you know that, but continue to misrepresent the statistics.
You misstated the rate of positives. It’s 11%, more than 50% higher than you claim, as just reported in the President’s press conference. But we don’t have comprehensive testing at this time, so the real rate isn’t truly known.
We are still very much on the upslope of this thing, and it is the mitigation efforts you FluBros are whining about that are keeping the death toll as low as it is.
Surely when this is over you guys that have complained and denied all along will pretend you were right and all this was unnecessary, but the rest of us know the truth. Unless it gets out of hand after all, then you guys will be stabbing and trampling each other to get TP.
And your conviction that 1.12 million isn’t “millions” and therefore an acceptable casualty count is disturbing.
We are learning about how the media goes to the doctors of their choice, namely the ones with the scariest info. This is not new nor will it change.
The Media is Satan.
2009 H1N1 deaths in the U.S. 12,469. (via CNN)
https://www.cnn.com/2013/08/23/health/h1n1-u-s-fast-facts/index.html
It was business as usual in 2009 and the deadly virus killed over 12,000 Americans. The good doctor now wants us to believe that with all the steps currently being taken, we will have 70 million fatalities.
I thought you had to take math to be a physician.
You forgot:
4. No matter what, Orange Man Bad.
The denial panic is strong on this thread.
Re: That’s just dumb
The percentage of Washington residents who are infected is higher than the percentage of New York residents who are infected.
When you are trying to understand a pandemic, percentage is critical.
If 7.6 million people die in Washington, everyone is dead.
If 7.6 million people die in New York, 12 million people are still alive.
Hope that helps?
Lyrics:
You can't take three from two
Two is less than three
So you look at the four in the tens place
Now that's really four tens
So you make it three tens
Regroup, and you change a ten to ten ones
And you add 'em to the two and get twelve
And you take away three, that's nine
Is that clear?
Now instead of four in the tens place
You've got three
Cause you added one
That is to say, ten, to the two
But you can't take seven from three
So you look in the hundreds place
From the three you then use one
To make ten ones
(And you know why four plus minus one
Plus ten is fourteen minus one?
Cause addition is commutative, right!)
And so you've got thirteen tens
And you take away seven
And that leaves five
Well, six actually
But the idea is the important thing!
Now go back to the hundreds place
You're left with two
And you take away one from two
And that leaves . . .?
Everybody get one?
Not bad for the first day!
Hooray for New Math
New-hoo-hoo Math
It won't do you a bit of good to review Math
It's so simple
So very simple
That only a child can do it!
Now, that actually is not the answer that I had in mind, because the
Book that I got this problem out of wants you to do it in base
Eight. But don't panic! Base eight is just like base ten really -
If you're missing two fingers! Shall we have a go at it?
Hang on
You can't take three from two
Two is less than three
So you look at the four in the eights place
Now that's really four eights
So you make it three eights
Regroup, and you change an eight to eight ones
And you add 'em to the two
And you get one-two base eight
Which is ten base ten
And you take away three, that's seven
Ok?
Now instead of four in the eights place
You've got three
Cause you added one
That is to say, eight, to the two
But you can't take seven from three
So you look at the sixty-fours
Sixty-four? "How did sixty-four get into it?" I hear you cry!
Well, sixty-four is eight squared, don't you see? (Well, ya ask a
Silly question, ya get a silly answer!)
From the three, you then use one
To make eight ones
You add those ones to the three
And you get one-three base eight
Or, in other words
In base ten you have eleven
And you take away seven
And seven from eleven is four!
Now go back to the sixty-fours
You're left with two
And you take away one from two
And that leaves . . .?
Now, let's not always see the same hands!
One, that's right
Whoever got one can stay after the show and clean the erasers
Hooray for New Math
New-hoo-hoo Math!
It won't do you a bit of good to review Math
It's so simple
So very simple
That only a child can do it!
Come back tomorrow night; we're gonna do fractions!
Y'know, I've often thought I'd like to write a mathematics textbook
someday because I have a title that I know will sell a million
copies; I'm gonna call it "Tropic of Calculus"
The CDC estimates 22,000 to 55,000 influenza fatalities for the last five months.
The CDC is the gold standard on flu deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm
I keep asking people why they did not demand that we shut down the entire country last October, when flu season began?
That usually ends the conversation about COVID vs. FLU.
(Singing)
Cv19!
Cv19!
We’ve all got Cv19!!!
(Collect Tony Award)
It’s not math. It’s inaccurate third grade arithmetic.
Traveling internationally when you’ve already been told you have been infected
The first known cv19 cases in America were brought here for treatment
Just as with ebola
Re: “You misstated the rate of positives. It’s 11%, more than 50% higher than you claim...”
I’m sure the Washington state Department of Health will be very interested in your “correct” numbers.
I chose Washington state because we have the highest infection rate in the country, and we have conducted the most tests.
Our rate peaked a week before the “Social Distance” mandate went into effect.
Here’s the link - scroll to the bottom of the page and see if your calculator gets the same percentage mine did.
https://www.doh.wa.gov/Emergencies/Coronavirus
I’m heading for bed - I’ll respond to the rest of post later this evening.
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