The coronavirus could kill millions of Americans: "Do the math," CDC advisor says

CNBC ^ | 19 March 2020 | William Feuer

[zeestephen]

Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."

[moehoward]

“ multiple waves”

Assume these “waves” compile over the required number of years, then “you can get there.”

Worst experts ever.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

[Leep]

The Trump haters.

[Reily]

That number’s probably still high because there are reports (Not claiming they are reliable!) that CV has an exceptionally high asymptomatic rate. I have seen it as high as 86% (I find this number highly suspect!)

Bottom line there is some number of people who show no symptoms and don’t bother to get tested. That increases the number of infections by some percentage.

[dfwgator]

Need to find out why they show no symptoms.

[mrmeyer]

The chicoms need to be held accountable

[Fido969]

I think the press is cherry-picking their “experts”.

[DarthVader]

Thanks, there is so much info going around. It is easy to get it mixed up.

[woweeitsme]

Yeah...and either way your math makes more sense than the “do the math” weirdo who said 70 million infections.

[Reily]

Of course they are!

[TangledUpInBlue]

LOL! Most is most. Who gives a $hit about population??? That’s just dumb

[MrEdd]

I said the panic is manufactured.
Not that it wasn’t a problem.

I pointed out that the disease is not that big a threat.

Your reading comprehension is not even close to adequate enough for you to be making signs.

[USS Alaska]

Look around... do you really think that this is the same thing as the cold and flu that happens every year?

You look around.

Since October 2019, between 18,000 and 31,000 AMERICANS HAVE DIED FROM THE FLU.

The YUGE spread between 18,000 and 31,000 deaths is because NO ONE KNOWS how many people are dead from the flu.

You are wrapped around your axle because a couple of hundred Americans are dead from the chinavirus and predictions of doom and gloom are all over the place.

One death is one too many, but a bit of perspective is in order.

This is not the same as the normal flu, this is much less than the flu, but the media has done it's job and stoked the flames of panic, and so America has responded.

If we get over 31,000 dead Americans, I will look around and say, OK, this is the same or worse than the normal flu, but by then, the flu will have killed more Americans.

[a fool in paradise]

Remember when they told us that the AIDS pandemic was going to overtake the heterosexual community?

Never did become a significant group, the risky behaviors were identified early on.

[Mr Rogers]

Don’t piss on someone’s Panic Parade! How can we expand government to unheard of levels without a panic?

I favor a 2 week quarantine of cable news and the CDC.

[rdcbn]

The “math” on this is bogus.

We really have no idea of an accurate epidemiological profile on this virus because we have to reliable data. It only been days since we have had a reliable test to even base data off of.

What we do have is direct, media reported, evidence that there are a very large number of infected people who are asymptomatic (infected but exhibit no symptoms of illness) or who have very mild symptoms that they assume as cold or flu and discount as covid19 because they expect worse.

These are people who are being blamed for much of the spread of the virus

Amazingly, this fact is being reported in alarmist articles saying the the virus is the new Black Death.

So we have large numbers of infected people with either no symptoms or such mild symptoms they discount them, infecting a narrower demographic of typically older people with serious pre existing conditions and high risk grouping that make them vulnerable to serious complications from the virus

The facts of the various narratives being thrown around simply do not comport with the facts on the ground.

Similarly, the fact that the virus has been circulating virtually unchecked in the Washington area since December with out generating a wide spread epidemic is also inconsistent with the Black Death profile.

That the virus is highly contagious is beyond dispute so we should be seeing a huge, wide spread outbreak in Washington after going on four months of unchecked spread- but yet we are not. No wide spread serious epidemic, no overwhelming of local hospitals and no shortage of ventilators
Exponential viral growth laws are not miraculously suspended in Washington and the same “ yeah, nothing yet but its exponential so just wait two weeks” dynamic that is driving ( legitimate) concern also applies just as validly to Washington - and we are a generally well documented 12+ weeks into the development of the Washington infection cluster island.

This on the ground reality disputes this virology gurus basic assumed epidemiological profile that she is working from to base her conclusions

We are all working on very partial information to make decisions which is a bad place be when those decisions govern the lives and health if an entire nation. Therefore, mitigation of downside risk and an abundance of caution has to be a major factor driving decision making process.

And there us always a potential chance the virus mutates into a more virulent and deadly form. The more wide spread the epidemic, the more opportunity for such a random mutation so current measures are probably necessary primarily to mitigate an unlikely but potentially catastrophic down side risk.

Its just that there are very significant inconsistencies on what we are seeing on the ground and what we are being told by media

[a fool in paradise]

The press looks for their predetermined consensus when they doctor shop for quotes

[null and void]

Interestingly enough, the exact same things that cut the spread of the WuFlu also cut the spread of the seasonal flu.

If you won’t wash your hands for COVID-19 do it for the seasonal flu!

[PilotDave]

“The CDC will be doing quite a bit of CYA in the next two weeks.”

Let me explain how this works, 1. Overstate the threat. 2. Overreact. 3. Awards for everyone when actual results are less than overstated threat. Job security.

[null and void]

Yup. The risky behaviors for WuFlu: not washing your hands, going into big crowds, enclosed spaces with potentially contagious people, touching exposed surfaces, touching your face, licking your fingers while turning pages in a press briefing to tell the rest of us what not to do, not covering your sneezes, traveling to areas where there are outbreaks, breaking quarantine, etc...