Posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen
Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
We are learning a lot about doctors from this.
While they excel at diagnosing and treating disease, they are sucky at math, and are REALLY REALLY BAD at public information.
No that’s true. She runs part of the CDC. It’s a swamp family tree sort of thing.
Yep, the point of my post, because I wasn’t clear, is that the worst possible case is 500k dead from data the CDC had 4 weeks ago. The data is much better now and the true threat is most likely around 100k deaths which is still a lot but nowhere near enough to justify risking the entire country.
When you include illegals, we’re probably around 350 million.
Thank you for your analysis!
I looked it up.
His sister's name is Nancy Messonnier.
She is employed at the CDC.
Abortion DOES kill millions
I’m more worried about all this free money sending us into GREAT DEPRESSION 2.
Free stuff to everyone, not a bit to seniors who just had the 1.6% COLA raise wiped out. COSTS have exceeded it. We are in the high risk group. Still need our regular meds, cleaning supplies, water. I’m not going to germ factory dr office.
Just don’t gouge us, deliver it. No contact.
Pelosi begins drive to BLOCK TRUMP’S ER DECLARATION
BTW virus is mutating and a Flu from china is emerging. It will Bio weaponize it.
with all due respect (and that would be none) you are totally WRONG. The flu death rate is approximately .01%. The death rate for coronavirus is approximately 4% WHICH IS 400 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE MORTALITY FOR FLU. So good buddy you are off by a factor of 400. Try and do the math before you display you lack of knowledge
Re: When you include illegals, we’re probably around 350 million.
I actually did consider that.
The Census Bureau is required to count “all persons present.”
I think the Census Bureau and Homeland Security agree that illegals are about 11 million.
Quite a few academics say 20 million.
Anyway - maybe 340 million is more accurate?
The disease level is the same, the panic is manufactured and only the gullible have fallen for it.
I think NYS beats Washington now. They have over 3,000 cases
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Also, influenza does not leave even healthy young people who recover with measurable lung tissue damage.
Or we might start cranking out hydroxy chloroquine, inoculate the populace and go back to work.
We knew from the cruise ships that passengers who had taken hydroxy chloroquine based drugs to prevent malaria hadn’t seemed to contract the Chinese virus. Now we have peer reviewed studies showing that it will supress transmissability even in people who already have it.
Re: “I think NYS beats Washington now. They have over 3,000 cases”
Adjusted for population, Washington state still has the most.
IF, the biggest two letter word in the English language.
You can make any kind of argument if, 'IF' is your predicate.
I assume...I presume... IF... no facts, just wishes and guesses.
I refuse to play in this insane sandbox.
You misplaced your decimal point.
In an average USA flu season, the mortality rate is 0.1% to 0.2% - in other words, one or two per thousand.
Re: "The death rate for coronavirus is approximately 4%"
The “Case Fatality Rate” in the USA is 1.6% today.
That rate has been stable or declining for ten straight days.
Does that count illegal aliens?
(4) For the purpose of discussion, let's say 7% of the USA is infected. 7% X 330 million is 23.1 million - NOT 70 million.
We could say that, but the cruise ship data shows 16% infected. 16% of 330 million (I'm using your population number) is 52.8 million.
(5) The USA "Case Fatality Rate" is 1.6%. That number has been stable or declining for 10 days.
As of right now, of those sick enough to need ICU care 41.4% died. That fortunately isn't everyone diagnosed.
About half the infected never show symptoms (although most of them are still contagious!) 52.8/2=26.4 million
About half who are sick need hospitalization. 26.4/2=13.2 million
Half of those get sick enough to need ICU care. 13.2/2=6.6 million
Half of those die. 6.6/2=3.3 million
YMMV.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
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