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The coronavirus could kill millions of Americans: "Do the math," CDC advisor says
CNBC ^ | 19 March 2020 | William Feuer

Posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen

Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."

(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...


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This Doctor has made some serious math errors.

(1) The USA population is 330 million - not 350 million.

(2) The Doctor claims that 70 million could eventually be infected.

(3) Washington state is the most COVID-19 infected state in the USA. All people who have known exposure risk, recent travel risk, or obvious symptom risk, are being tested. Just 7% of those 17,105 tests were positive, and that rate has been declining for a week.

(4) For the purpose of discussion, let's say 7% of the USA is infected. 7% X 330 million is 23.1 million - NOT 70 million.

(5) The USA "Case Fatality Rate" is 1.6%. That number has been stable or declining for 10 days.

(6) For the purpose of discussion, let's say the Doctor's prediction of 70 million infections is correct. 70 million X 1.6% is 1.12 million. That is not "millions." It is barely 1 million.

1 posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

Rot Rosenstein’s sister!!


2 posted on 03/19/2020 7:42:28 AM PDT by DarthVader (Not by speeches & majority decisions will the great issues of the day be decided but by Blood & Iron)
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To: zeestephen

Hey, stop it with the math facts. You are ruining the “panic”!

/sarc


3 posted on 03/19/2020 7:43:39 AM PDT by taxcontrol (Stupid should hurt (Dad's wisdom")
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To: zeestephen

biggest error is assuming we are all stupid lemmings who would not modify our behavior in response to a REAL risk of that magnitude


4 posted on 03/19/2020 7:44:02 AM PDT by ghost of nixon
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To: zeestephen

You’ll get NOWHERE with FACTS on this thing!
(Nice job, though.)


5 posted on 03/19/2020 7:45:00 AM PDT by Carriage Hill (A society grows great when old men plant trees, in whose shade they know they will never sit.)
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To: zeestephen

Ridiculous. This kind of talk leads to panic. Deliberate? This latest bug is no different than the flu and cold we get every year. Do you really think this is the bug that will destroy us?


6 posted on 03/19/2020 7:46:49 AM PDT by olepap
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To: zeestephen

“This Doctor has made some serious math errors. “

To hell with math! The public is generally too stupid to question a DOCTOR’s calculations!!!

It’s panic that matters, and controlling the public. It’s been going better than they could have imagined. The American public is easily manipulated under the guise of “the greater good”.


7 posted on 03/19/2020 7:47:02 AM PDT by brownsfan (Behold, the power of government cheese.)
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To: zeestephen
This is the type of hysteria that needs to be quashed.

Italy's cumulative case count today is 35,713, which is 0.059% of their country's total population. If you multiply that number by our 329MM citizens, you'd get 156,000 Americans with Coronavirus.

NFW.

8 posted on 03/19/2020 7:48:53 AM PDT by DoodleBob (Gravity's waiting period is about 9.8 m/s^2)
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To: zeestephen

Hmmm .... she’s “director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland”. I looked and can find on vaccine she has developed....so some “Center” she directs.


9 posted on 03/19/2020 7:49:46 AM PDT by House Atreides (Boycott the NFL 100% — PERMANENTL)
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To: House Atreides

“on vaccine” should be “NO vaccine”.


10 posted on 03/19/2020 7:51:31 AM PDT by House Atreides (Boycott the NFL 100% — PERMANENTL)
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To: zeestephen

The worst case based upon available data is:

1. 20% infection rate
2. 50% symptomatic
2. 14% mortality rate for age 70+ Showing symptoms
3. 70+ is 11.2% of population

So...

330M x 0.20 x 0.5 x 0.14 x 0.112 = 500k

The CDC will be doing quite a bit of CYA in the next two weeks.


11 posted on 03/19/2020 7:51:58 AM PDT by ARW
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To: zeestephen

Event 201 - executed as planned


12 posted on 03/19/2020 7:52:53 AM PDT by Jan_Sobieski (Sanctification)
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Comment #13 Removed by Moderator

To: zeestephen

“Math is hard...which is why its easier to make up numbers”


14 posted on 03/19/2020 7:55:20 AM PDT by Zathras
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To: ARW
Going to be a lot of ‘splaining to do when this thing is over
15 posted on 03/19/2020 7:55:53 AM PDT by rdcbn ( Referentiaii)
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To: ARW

CNBC...Again.


16 posted on 03/19/2020 7:56:10 AM PDT by gibsonguy
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To: taxcontrol

I’m still waiting for my million that MSNBC said I could have gotten from Bloomberg? It makes it easier for someone else to do the hard math.


17 posted on 03/19/2020 7:56:30 AM PDT by blackdog (Making wine cave appearances upon request.)
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To: DarthVader
Re: Rod Rosenstein’s sister

Is that true?

Or, have I completely misunderstood a really good joke?

18 posted on 03/19/2020 7:57:48 AM PDT by zeestephen
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To: rdcbn

“Live from the CDC in Grovers Mill, N.J.......”


19 posted on 03/19/2020 7:58:03 AM PDT by blackdog (Making wine cave appearances upon request.)
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To: zeestephen

Perfectly good math in the service of perfectly idiotic conclusions. No wonder the reputation of science has been taking a beating lately.


20 posted on 03/19/2020 7:58:04 AM PDT by Mr Ramsbotham ("God is a spirit, and man His means of walking on the earth.")
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