(1) The USA population is 330 million - not 350 million.
(2) The Doctor claims that 70 million could eventually be infected.
(3) Washington state is the most COVID-19 infected state in the USA. All people who have known exposure risk, recent travel risk, or obvious symptom risk, are being tested. Just 7% of those 17,105 tests were positive, and that rate has been declining for a week.
(4) For the purpose of discussion, let's say 7% of the USA is infected. 7% X 330 million is 23.1 million - NOT 70 million.
(5) The USA "Case Fatality Rate" is 1.6%. That number has been stable or declining for 10 days.
(6) For the purpose of discussion, let's say the Doctor's prediction of 70 million infections is correct. 70 million X 1.6% is 1.12 million. That is not "millions." It is barely 1 million.
Rot Rosenstein’s sister!!
Hey, stop it with the math facts. You are ruining the “panic”!
/sarc
biggest error is assuming we are all stupid lemmings who would not modify our behavior in response to a REAL risk of that magnitude
You’ll get NOWHERE with FACTS on this thing!
(Nice job, though.)
Ridiculous. This kind of talk leads to panic. Deliberate? This latest bug is no different than the flu and cold we get every year. Do you really think this is the bug that will destroy us?
“This Doctor has made some serious math errors. “
To hell with math! The public is generally too stupid to question a DOCTOR’s calculations!!!
It’s panic that matters, and controlling the public. It’s been going better than they could have imagined. The American public is easily manipulated under the guise of “the greater good”.
Italy's cumulative case count today is 35,713, which is 0.059% of their country's total population. If you multiply that number by our 329MM citizens, you'd get 156,000 Americans with Coronavirus.
NFW.
Hmmm .... she’s “director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland”. I looked and can find on vaccine she has developed....so some “Center” she directs.
The worst case based upon available data is:
1. 20% infection rate
2. 50% symptomatic
2. 14% mortality rate for age 70+ Showing symptoms
3. 70+ is 11.2% of population
So...
330M x 0.20 x 0.5 x 0.14 x 0.112 = 500k
The CDC will be doing quite a bit of CYA in the next two weeks.
Event 201 - executed as planned
“Math is hard...which is why its easier to make up numbers”
Perfectly good math in the service of perfectly idiotic conclusions. No wonder the reputation of science has been taking a beating lately.
When you include illegals, we’re probably around 350 million.
Thank you for your analysis!
Abortion DOES kill millions
I think NYS beats Washington now. They have over 3,000 cases
Bookmark
IF, the biggest two letter word in the English language.
You can make any kind of argument if, 'IF' is your predicate.
I assume...I presume... IF... no facts, just wishes and guesses.
I refuse to play in this insane sandbox.
Does that count illegal aliens?
(4) For the purpose of discussion, let's say 7% of the USA is infected. 7% X 330 million is 23.1 million - NOT 70 million.
We could say that, but the cruise ship data shows 16% infected. 16% of 330 million (I'm using your population number) is 52.8 million.
(5) The USA "Case Fatality Rate" is 1.6%. That number has been stable or declining for 10 days.
As of right now, of those sick enough to need ICU care 41.4% died. That fortunately isn't everyone diagnosed.
About half the infected never show symptoms (although most of them are still contagious!) 52.8/2=26.4 million
About half who are sick need hospitalization. 26.4/2=13.2 million
Half of those get sick enough to need ICU care. 13.2/2=6.6 million
Half of those die. 6.6/2=3.3 million
YMMV.
Plan for the worst, hope for the best.
“ multiple waves”
Assume these “waves” compile over the required number of years, then “you can get there.”
Worst experts ever.