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To: calenel

Whoops - forgot to help you with your math.

You wrote: “You misstated the CFR. The number you gave is the Deaths-to-Cases Ratio which includes unresolved cases. The CFR is currently (150 dead)/(150 dead + 106 recovered) or 59% at this time.”

The Encyclopedia Britannica disagrees:

“Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time.”

https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

Hope this helps?


113 posted on 03/19/2020 5:38:59 PM PDT by zeestephen
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To: zeestephen

“Case fatality rate is calculated by dividing the number of deaths from a specified disease over a defined period of time by the number of individuals diagnosed with the disease during that time.”

For a historical data set. It is meaningless to include the unresolved cases. That’s why the Deaths-to-Cases Ratio exists.

From Wikipedia:

“A CFR can only be considered final when all the cases have been resolved (either died or recovered).”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Case_fatality_rate

Incidentally, the Wikipedia article actually lists the Britannica definition you provided among its citations. I’m sure if some epidemiologist looked at the Wikipedia article and saw a problem he’d submit a correction. Yet it remains the same since the last time we had this debate. Certainly it could be that the whole epidemiological world is wrong and you are right, but I doubt it.


124 posted on 03/19/2020 7:08:02 PM PDT by calenel (Don't panic. Prepare and be vigilant.)
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