Posted on 03/19/2020 7:40:51 AM PDT by zeestephen
Dr. Kathleen Neuzil, director of the Center for Vaccine Development at the University of Maryland’s School of Medicine..."We have 350 million people in the United States, and you do the math," she said on CNBC’s Squawk Box. If 70 million people are eventually infected with this virus and again if there are multiple waves of this virus, then you can do the math and then you can get there."
(Excerpt) Read more at cnbc.com ...
In 2017, 45 million Americans WERE infected. 959,000 were hospitalized and 61,099 deaths.......We survived without a peep from the govt. or the MSM.......
Don’t be dumb.
chinavirus started in china and is now reduced to almost no new cases. How many people died in china from coronavirus compared to the number of Americans that died from the flu?
Because I disagree with you, I am not dumb, but your super knowledge of the future indicates that you should play the numbers for a living.
BTW, too late for what?
I am done with you. Piss off.
Roughly half the people who go into ICU care don't survive.
You don't even get into ICU unless you are one very sick puppy.
Hope that helps.
The bottom line is an information driven ESTIMATE.
As to your assertion that "Not one student was infected at that time."
"Not one student had bad enough symptoms to say something." might be a more accurate statement. And you also neglected to mention that half the infected people never show symptoms but are contagious to those around them...
If I recall correctly, 60 Million Americans caught the Swine Flu and 1250 died back in 2009 / 2010.
Just doing the Math.
All schools in Indiana will be closed until at least May 1.
https://www.wthr.com/article/holcomb-signs-order-keep-schools-closed-until-may-due-covid-19
Yes, but in an emergency that appears to be hardwired into the human psyche. Give them time to process it without freaking out.
Similar but kills old people more and everyone else less, and hasn’t infected anywhere close to the number regular flu does every year.
The death rate for coronavirus is approximately 4% WHICH IS 400 TIMES HIGHER THAN THE MORTALITY FOR FLU.
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CFR numbers are all over the place. That figure is not at all accurate. Fauci said a week ago the CFR is .6-1%, and likely to go down, as more people are tested and shown to have very mild symptoms.
Also, influenza does not leave even healthy young people who recover with measurable lung tissue damage.
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Any accurate stats about that? I saw one study, based on a handful of severely ill people, and the damage was not monitored over any length of time.
Assume these “waves” compile over the required number of years, then “you can get there.”
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H1N1 was worse the first time. It came around again at least twice, maybe more as I havne’t kept close track, but each succeeding wave the severity had attenuated, and since many people had it before, they had some immunity to it. So if there are future wave of wuflu, I expect the same.
Look on the bright side. If enough of us old people die off it will save Social Security funds that have already been spent.
I enough people die and I live maybe I can buy a decent used car cheaper.
With the exception of pediatric cases, they flat out guess at every number in their calculations. Look at their data:
Use this CDC link and you'll find this data:
Let's use this data:
| Symptomatic Illnesses | Medical Visits | Hospitalizations | Deaths | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I | Estimate | 95% U I |
| 2010-2011 | 21,000,000 | (20,000,000 – 25,000,000) | 10,000,000 | (9,300,000 – 12,000,000) | 290,000 | (270,000 – 350,000) | 37,000 | (32,000 – 51,000) |
| 2011-2012 | 9,300,000 | (8,700,000 – 12,000,000) | 4,300,000 | (4,000,000 – 5,600,000) | 140,000 | (130,000 – 190,000) | 12,000 | (11,000 – 23,000) |
| 2012-2013 | 34,000,000 | (32,000,000 – 38,000,000) | 16,000,000 | (15,000,000 – 18,000,000) | 570,000 | (530,000 – 680,000) | 43,000 | (37,000 – 57,000) |
| 2013-2014 | 30,000,000 | (28,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 13,000,000 | (12,000,000 – 15,000,000) | 350,000 | (320,000 – 390,000) | 38,000 | (33,000 – 50,000) |
| 2014-2015 | 30,000,000 | (29,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 14,000,000 | (13,000,000 – 16,000,000) | 590,000 | (540,000 – 680,000) | 51,000 | (44,000 – 64,000) |
| 2015-2016 | 24,000,000 | (20,000,000 – 33,000,000) | 11,000,000 | (9,000,000 – 15,000,000) | 280,000 | (220,000 – 480,000) | 23,000 | (17,000 – 35,000) |
| 2016-2017 | 29,000,000 | (25,000,000 – 45,000,000) | 14,000,000 | (11,000,000 – 23,000,000) | 500,000 | (380,000 – 860,000) | 38,000 | (29,000 – 61,000) |
| Preliminary estimates* | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI | Estimate | 95% UI |
| 2017-2018* | 45,000,000 | (39,000,000 – 58,000,000) | 21,000,000 | (18,000,000 – 27,000,000) | 810,000 | (620,000 – 1,400,000) | 61,000 | (46,000 – 95,000) |
| 2018-2019* | 35,520,883 | (31,323,881 – 44,995,691) | 16,520,350 | (14,322,767 – 21,203,231) | 490,561 | (387,283 – 766,472) | 34,157 | (26,339 – 52,664) |
* Estimates from the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons are preliminary and may change as data are finalized.
Every column starts with "ESTIMATED". That is to say it's a guess. It's an educated guess, and is based on experience with estimates for previous years, and it probably is "close" ±50% maybe?
Please. If that old malaria drug gets approved for treatment in the next couple of weeks, the body count might not even surpass 10,000, assuming it works consistently. Hospitals not being slammed, leaving the ICU in days instead of weeks, etc.
Of course it is. The country that we knew a couple weeks ago is already gone. In our current state, most people are already keeping to themselves, staying away from vulnerable friends and relatives, making less frequent trips to the stores, etc. In the wake of this, we'll be a new, stronger country, tougher people, and I would seriously be surprised if the body count even approached 1,000,000.
FD: I'm not a "flu bro."
As for those people who are still hanging out in large crowds, take off and nuke them from orbit. It's the only way to be sure.
“CDC Advisor”. That’s a way to scare people into thinking this is an actual CDC prediction. Not some liberal left-wing professor at some college who sometimes sends her thoughts to the CDC to be filed away with all the other thoughts the CDC apparently has no method of processing.
I go back to the cruise ship. Old people, tight spaces, nobody knew what they were facing, common A/C, little treatment.
3800 people on board, 710 test positive, 300 have symptoms, 7 dead, 14 still critical, meaning at most 21 will die.
21/3800 = 0.55%, absolute worst case.
Which would be 1.8 million dead if the entire united states was a tightly packed cruise ship with no treatment.
Best case, 7/3800, gives us 600,000 dead.
And that’s “best case” of the worst situation, cruise ship.
I would be shocked if we hit 100,000 dead. I’ll be shocked it Italy hits 100,000 dead.
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