Posted on 03/17/2020 10:42:50 AM PDT by Perseverando
This is a long post addressing two underlying issues with the current response to the pandemic that leave me concerned. It’s the longest post I’ve ever written.
For those of you not taking action, or believing the pandemic to be “over hyped”, you can make fun of me as much as you want now or when this is over. You can make me the subject of memes and post it everywhere. I will pose for the picture. I am not trying to convince you, but I do feel compelled to share information that I deem critical to all of us, which is why I am posting this at all.
WHY YOU SHOULD TAKE 5 MINUTES TO READ AND CONSIDER THE INFORMATION I AM SHARING:
As of 3/15/20 at 9 am PST this post has been shared over 50k times since it was posted 2 days ago. So a lot of people find value in the post and although it's a long read, I believe you will find this information valuable too.
For those of you who don’t know me well, I am analytical and metered. I don’t freak out nor do I respond emotionally. I also don’t post a bunch of bullshit or political or controversial stuff on Facebook. I founded and am CEO of a successful software company that provides SaaS based data, analytics, and dashboards to recruiting departments at companies we all know. As you would expect, I am data driven and fact based. Before founding my company I held executive roles leading very large recruiting teams at some of the world's fastest growing companies such as Starbucks and Google. At Google I was fortunate enough to report to Sheryl Sandberg before she took the Facebook COO role. I was a Chemical Engineering major in college and have
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You had to literally “inject” that viral load to spread HIV.
You need to be in the room where someone coughs to get this.
Big, big difference.
Social distancing buys time for new cures, vaccines, etc.
Your understanding of the impact of this on hospital capacity is noteworthy.
You focus on the death rate. That is the least of your worries.
But, keep at it. You will figure it out.
The Diamond Princess cruise are best quantifiable numbers - think test tube enviro. Death rate 0.14%
The medical experts at today's briefing basically said the same.
Thanks for your research/info. My wife told me to get away...we need to “social distance” ourselves. I said, “What else is new?” She gave me the Greta scowl and now I’m quarantined.
When someone wastes this much words touting the rigor of his reasoning and the value of his point instead of just getting to it, I lose interest.
Doubling every four days where? Not in the US. I just looked at the CDC web page, and from 3/1 to 3/11 the average daily increase in new cases fluctuated between 50 and 113, with the 50 number being the last in the series. There was no spiraling upward trend. The CDC reports about 4,200 cases, with 879 new cases between 3/1 and 3/11. That would be a 26% increase over 11 days. If a few more late-reporting cases come in for those dates, that might raise it to 30-40% over 11 days. That’s far short of 100% every four days.
[[That’s been nagging at me too. When they talk about mortality rate, is the only denominator they are using based on CONFIRMED cases and not adding undetected ones?]]
Dont’ quote me on this- but i read years ago something about that but don’t quite remember it- I think what i remember is that they come up with ‘acceptable guesstimates based on statistics’ (ie something like there is always a % that will never go to docs no matter what- some that will but ignore doctor’s advice, won’t get tested, but show symptoms, etc- )- and remember there being a pretty large, but accepted leeway, due to variables- when making projections about something like this-
I Think a proper result should include a spread between known cases and unknown- so like it should read ‘known cases = 3%, while factoring in an accepted % of unknown cases might yield a final result of only .3%”
That would certainly clear things up and allow us to compare to other flues if they had the same spread system-
Your question would be a good one to ask an online doc about- if we could find one that isn’t swamped with work lol-
I agree with social distancing, and have been prepping since January.
But you seem to be drooling and touching yourself a little *too* eagerly over the prospect of Martial Law.
Save it for Antifa.
Conclusion: you want this virus to hurt Trump because you’re so butt-hurt over paying more taxes in a blue state.
We best err on the side of caution at least in the short term. If you don’t believe the threat is real, please play along with those who do for just a couple weeks. We should know a lot more come early April. Hopefully the worriers will be proved wrong.
Do you know how many coronavirus type diseases that have a cure?
H1N1 was eradicated in six months to a year thanks to the vaccine.
Or, if casual spread is true (Chinese studies found people getting on a bus half an hour after a carrier rode it, could catch the virus)...you’re putting everyone else you come in contact with, at risk.
Sober is not to be mentioned on St Pattys Day!
You sound just like me. We should hang out together. Oh wait...
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