[Antoninus]

But if 86% of cases are unknown and still at large, expect the *worst* case scenario.

On the contrary, if 86% of the cases are asymptomatic to the point where they don't even know they have anything, then the death rate is actually much lower than projected.

[calenel]

That 86% that don’t know they have it, if they existed, would be infecting other people, 14% of whom would be symptomatic and know they were sick.

However, even your flawed argument doesn’t mean much as we don’t count the asymptomatic, didn’t know they had it, people for other diseases and the models are built around identified cases.

It’s just wishful thinking to believe there is a huge pool of didn’t-get-sick out there to somehow protect you. How would that work, anyway?