Posted on 11/04/2019 8:32:14 AM PST by SeekAndFind
Before the Fed lowered its target interest rate range on Wednesday, Donald Trump was already on Twitter, touching on two of his favorite topics: how the Fed doesn't lower interest rates enough and that the stock market's performance is thanks to him and his Republican pals.
The connection between a president and equity markets isn't straightforward. Many factors—the general health of the economy, investors sentiment, interest rates, financial stimulus, and global business conditions, for example—affect how stocks perform. But presidents also aren't unimportant.
"Policies may or may not be helpful for economic growth," says Kenneth Orr, CEO of investment research firm and value investment fund manager KORR Acquisitions Group. "Policies are led by the President and his Administration, but Congress must pass laws and budgets to affect those policies."
And so, as Fortune did in early June, we decided to take a look at how the markets performed during the Administrations of Barack Obama and Trump. We downloaded historical information on the Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 indexes from Yahoo Finance. Then we compared the same periods for both presidents: from inauguration on January 20 to Oct. 31 in their third year of office.
Because the market had already run up a long way before Trump was elected, the absolute numbers would be misleading. Instead, Fortune compared the performance under each president to his initial inauguration day to get an accurate comparison of growth under each.
Below are graphs and analysis for each of the sectors. For those who want the quick answer, market growth was considerably stronger under Obama, but there is an important caveat. The financial crash that occurred immediately before Obama took office left markets reeling, so there was a lot of room for them to move. Also, the massive financial stimulus enabled by Congress
(Excerpt) Read more at fortune.com ...
My 401K is doing quite well - but there’s just too much work. :-)
What will this dishonest “writer” of this misleading piece of crapola do next? I suggest he will be continuing kissing his picture of The Greatest Fraud Ever which hangs in apartment in a shrine. Maybe he’ll light yet another votive candle. What BS. What a nitwit of the first order.
You hit the nail on the head with your response. This idiot piece focused on percentage, which is not the correct way to analyze the productivity or health of the stock market. But it sure makes it look like his argument is correct, to those who do not know better.
The fact that you went to the effort of listing his stupid graphs is what made me wonder if you were buying into this nonsense.
Now, even those who may not question your stance, know exactly where you stand with regards to this article. 8>)
I keep saying this to people who keep accusing me of being against Trump (i.e., a NeverTrumper, the standard accusations of FReepers who insist that these forums should only have articles that support Trump), when I post unflattering articles ...
1. I voted for Trump over Hillary, but supported Ted Cruz in the primaries
2. I post articles like these to elicit COMMENTS and REFUTATIONS if such are forthcoming. That I do not post my own comments should not be taken as an endorsement of the article’s content.
3. Before accusing me of always posting articles that are unflattering of Trump, READ MY OTHER POSTS that DO support him.
The problem with many FReepers is they jump into conclusions without seeing the whole picture.
Just read one poster in this thread who actually heaped expletives on me prompting me to have to inform the moderator about violations of FR civility rules.
Focus on the article’s content please.
lol - of course, because Zero got into office as it tanked - 2008.
You are the one who is jumping to a conclusion, that being my motivation. It had nothing to do with whether you supported President Trump. It was solely my mining to determine if you believed the nonsense this guy was stating in his article. These pseudo intellectuals that bring forth propaganda like this to the people are quite devious in their methods. Was making sure you were not fooled by these machinations he put forth.
But you are the one who brings out the skepticism when you constantly post articles whose purpose is to undermine the truth to push a fictitious narrative, and then say nothing. That silence coupled with repeatedly posting dubious articles has apparently caused many others to engage you to examine your motivation as well. If that bothers you, then quell the questions by letting people know what you think of what you post. A mind faced with speculation can bring forth dangerous & incorrect conclusions. Neither of us want that. 8>)
RE: Now you are reading into the argument something I did not broach or even imply.
Please re-read my post to which you replied. I never said anything about you. It was a post IN GENERAL about those who accuse me of being anti-Trump.
When I said: “Before accusing me of always posting articles that are unflattering of Trump, READ MY OTHER POSTS that DO support him.” I wasn’t talking about YOU. I was talking about other posters.
RE: But you are the one who brings out the skepticism when you constantly post articles whose purpose is to undermine the truth to push a fictitious narrative, and then say nothing.
Again, I am not required to say anything. I already explained what my purpose is if I don’t comment about an article I posted. I want to elicit comments and refutations from FReepers. THAT is my motivation.
If you want to be skeptical of my motivations, it’s up to you. I can’t control what you think or want to think. I can only explain my motives and I just did.
Given that Fortune states investors sentiment is one of the factors on how stocks perform, a more accurate starting point would be the day after the election.
Under this scenario, the market under President Trump outperformed the market under President Obama. This is because the market decreased significantly between Obama’s election and his inauguration; whereas the market increased after Trump was elected up to his inauguration, as follows.
Obama between 4 Nov 2008 and 20 Jan 2009:
Dow - 17.41%; NASDAQ -19.05%; S & P - 19.96%
Trump between 1 Nov 2016 and 20 Jan 2017
Dow + 9.92%; NASDAQ + 7.80%; S & P + 7.56%
Obama between 4 Nov 2008 and 31 Oct 2011
Dow + 24.20%; NASDAQ + 50.81%; S & P + 24.58%
Trump between 1 Nov 2016 and 31 Oct 2019
Dow + 52.10%; NASDAQ + 62.73%; S & P + 45.23%
Trump 2020
The distinction between Wall Street and Main Street is an important one.
Wall Street can thrive as Main Street loses hundreds of thousands of jobs- one of the “benefits” of a heavily globalized financial sector.
And while Wall Street can donate a billion dollars it’s Main Street that can actually vote.
And in 2016 Main Street voted for Donald Trump.
Decades ago the Democrats listened to blue collar America. Today they despise them as deplorables and smelly Walmart voters. Today Democrats have become the party of rich progressives, comfortable government bureaucrats, and the managerial class.
Republicans used to have the well deserved reputation for being the party of the corporate suite. They often still are, with Reagan and Trump being outliers, outliers who cut into old Democrat voting strongholds.
At one time being the party of the corporate suite wasn’t a problem, but that’s when American corporations employed Americans. Globalization has changed that. I’m not sure that ‘American corporation’ has any meaning at all anymore.
That is deception. Trump stock market values are so high, that it is hard to get big percentage moves. Obama could because he tanked it and percentage growth was easy.
Exactly. This graphs and articles are meant for the average Demo rat IQ.
I’m no economist, but I have to believe the same rule applies to the job numbers.
How can you have large increases in the quarterly jobs report when the country is now, thanks to PDJT, at statistical full employment?
Exactly. I no longer believe anything at all from DC. It is all biased against Trump. All of it. All I know is I am finally back to where I was supposed to be 10 years ago with my main business. Thank you Donald Trump. They better not destroy this economy again just so another Obama can get elected.
There are also rules against incessant Trump bashing
I haven’t looked but were you a nevertrumper who couldn’t take exile and came back or not?
Well I DO KNOW he’s like a 5 year old reporting me to the principal :)
I’m sure they took your Trump bashing side.
You’re not worth the spit in my mouth right now.
Go to DU where you’ll be safe.
Obviously not talking to you Wardaddy.
It is not for you to tell me where to go or where to stay.
I’ll post what ever is allowed in FR regardless of how you feel.
re: “What happens when you remove the artificial gains due to QE 1 and 2?”
That’s the 64,000 US dollar question.
If you bothered to look at my posts, you will see that I am NOT an incessant Trump basher.
Just because you don’t like the content of this particilar article does not mean
it is bashing Trump.
Besides, the title of the post mentions the SOURCE of the article. You want to bash someone? Bash the basher, not the poster.
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