Posted on 05/27/2019 9:05:51 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections. At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind.
But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one of the best of these, it should be quite large.
One of the first and perhaps still the best of these models was created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale. He found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.
How well has Professor Fairs model worked?
In short, while not perfect, the Fair model has done remarkably well. In 2008, it predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.1 percent of the popular vote; his share actually totaled 53.7 percent. In 2012, when Mr. Obama was running for re-election, its final estimate was a vote share of 51.8 percent, just two-tenths of one percent less than what the incumbent president received. (For Mr. Obama in 2012, the power of incumbency helped offset a still-recovering economy.)
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
MSM-Democrats have got to find a way to sabotage the economy.
But no one knows better than the NYT that the media is working overtime to distort and conceal the presidents accomplishments. Hopefully they will fail.
Just pull up a chair and watch.
The issue is not 2020 - it is 2024!!!
Who's the man that will step up to finish the job Trump has started to restore our Free Constitutional Republic?
Until Trump restores the rule of law he will not win 2020.
The democraps are going around the country teaching each other how to stuff ballot boxes and use their offices within government to thwart him.
That is a dilemma. I do like pence on judges, but thats not enough. I like walker and the work he did in Wisconsin, but his last run for Governor hurt him. I think he should have run for senate instead. The Seal with the patch seems good. I really think Sean Duffy is excellent, but again should have run for senate. Having Duffy and walker represent Wisconsin would have been awesome. Oh well...
If you look around the world you can see a trend beginning.
Nationalism is taking back some power from Globalist.
Citizens have awaken to the fact that their politicians have sold them out to one world government and multi-cultralism.
Is it so hard to believe that people want their own country, their own language, their own cultural and traditions?
Inviting millions of third world migrants in that don’t share any values with the citizens (yet making the citizens pay for the care and feeding of these self same migrants) was sure to create a backlash at some point.
Perhaps the backlash is beginning.
Steve Ratface, the country will fall into a depression if Trump wins. Idiot talking head.
I’m going to spend part of my holiday watching the election night 2016 video on YT.
heh !!!!
This has shades of 1972 where the dims finally decided on McGovern, an epic loser.
Tom Cotton or Ron Desantis
Biden, Bernie, Beto and Buttplug is their top tier.
THAT’s entertainment!
Either one would be fantastic! I’m a big DeSantis fan.
None of these models take into account the absolute insane hatred of Trump by the left
Mulvaney?
I think Trump will win, but you're right, it ain't going to be easy. And there's this opinion:
Scott Adams: President Trump Has No Chance of Re-Election Due to the Masters of the Universe
When the media says he could win I suspect a sinister motive to either make his supporters complacent or energize the opposition. I will give both time and money to his campaign.
My guess is that only buttgig will be a contender in that group. However, their dream candidate is a gay female "of color".
If you haven’t noticed, the Lame Stream criminal media have been tripping over each other to publish the latest article about how Americans are truly financially insecure “despite the robust economy”. I am convinced this is the latest messaging platform that the DNC has provided these lapdogs to foment fear, uncertainty, and doubt that the Dimm candidates can point to in their speeches.
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/economy/fed-400-dollar-survey.html
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