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Trump’s Formidable 2020 Tailwind
The New York Times ^ | 27 May 2019 | Steven Rattner

Posted on 05/27/2019 9:05:51 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum

The economy invariably ranks among the top issues on the minds of voters in presidential elections. At the moment, it appears to offer President Trump a meaningful tailwind.

But how big is that tailwind? Fortunately, economists have worked hard to develop models for predicting election outcomes, and according to one of the best of these, it should be quite large.

One of the first — and perhaps still the best — of these models was created by Ray Fair, a professor at Yale. He found that the growth rates of gross domestic product and inflation have been the two most important economic predictors — but he also found that incumbency was also an important determinant of presidential election outcomes.

How well has Professor Fair’s model worked?

In short, while not perfect, the Fair model has done remarkably well. In 2008, it predicted that Barack Obama would receive 53.1 percent of the popular vote; his share actually totaled 53.7 percent. In 2012, when Mr. Obama was running for re-election, its final estimate was a vote share of 51.8 percent, just two-tenths of one percent less than what the incumbent president received. (For Mr. Obama in 2012, the power of incumbency helped offset a still-recovering economy.)

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


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Make Liberals Cry Again!
1 posted on 05/27/2019 9:05:51 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

MSM-Democrats have got to find a way to sabotage the economy.


2 posted on 05/27/2019 9:07:54 AM PDT by Steely Tom ([Seth Rich] == [the Democrat's John Dean])
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

But no one knows better than the NYT that the media is working overtime to distort and conceal the president’s accomplishments. Hopefully they will fail.


3 posted on 05/27/2019 9:11:14 AM PDT by Spok
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
2020 Trump Landslide!!!

Just pull up a chair and watch.

The issue is not 2020 - it is 2024!!!

Who's the man that will step up to finish the job Trump has started to restore our Free Constitutional Republic?

4 posted on 05/27/2019 9:15:02 AM PDT by Jim W N (MAGA by restoring the Gospel of the Grace of Christ and our Free Constitutional Republic!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Until Trump restores the rule of law he will not win 2020.

The democraps are going around the country teaching each other how to stuff ballot boxes and use their offices within government to thwart him.


5 posted on 05/27/2019 9:18:34 AM PDT by CodeToad ( Hating on Trump is hating on me and Americans!.)
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To: Jim 0216

That is a dilemma. I do like pence on judges, but that’s not enough. I like walker and the work he did in Wisconsin, but his last run for Governor hurt him. I think he should have run for senate instead. The Seal with the patch seems good. I really think Sean Duffy is excellent, but again should have run for senate. Having Duffy and walker represent Wisconsin would have been awesome. Oh well...


6 posted on 05/27/2019 9:22:25 AM PDT by napscoordinator (Trump/Hunter, jr for President/Vice President 2016)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

If you look around the world you can see a trend beginning.

Nationalism is taking back some power from Globalist.

Citizens have awaken to the fact that their politicians have sold them out to one world government and multi-cultralism.

Is it so hard to believe that people want their own country, their own language, their own cultural and traditions?

Inviting millions of third world migrants in that don’t share any values with the citizens (yet making the citizens pay for the care and feeding of these self same migrants) was sure to create a backlash at some point.

Perhaps the backlash is beginning.


7 posted on 05/27/2019 9:23:43 AM PDT by CIB-173RDABN (I am not an expert in anything, and my opinion is just that, an opinion. I may be wrong.)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Steve Ratface, the country will fall into a depression if Trump wins. Idiot talking head.


8 posted on 05/27/2019 9:24:08 AM PDT by databoss
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

I’m going to spend part of my holiday watching the election night 2016 video on YT.

heh !!!!


9 posted on 05/27/2019 9:25:52 AM PDT by Dana1960
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
Another factor not mentioned is the bus full of clowns looking to be the dim candidate.

This has shades of 1972 where the dims finally decided on McGovern, an epic loser.

10 posted on 05/27/2019 9:39:22 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: Jim 0216

Tom Cotton or Ron Desantis


11 posted on 05/27/2019 9:39:35 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizen Means Born Here Of Citizen Parents_Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: pfflier

Biden, Bernie, Beto and Buttplug is their top tier.

THAT’s entertainment!


12 posted on 05/27/2019 9:41:48 AM PDT by Lurkinanloomin (Natural Born Citizen Means Born Here Of Citizen Parents_Know Islam, No Peace-No Islam, Know Peace)
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To: Spok
This being Memorial Day weekend and there are many parties and get togethers, i was curious about what some people think about the President.
Now where i live there are a lot of conservative folks.
What i found out is that the women almost unanimously dislike Trump an for the sole reason that “he hates women”.
Their families are all doing well in the good economy, many have late model new cars. Money for vacations, etc...
But they will not even consider voting for Trump.
They are brainwashed and will vote for anyone except Trump.
So there is no way i see any “landslide” for Trump, roll in the massive voter fraud that we all know will occur and we'll be lucky if Trump can win with Electoral votes and lose the majority vote.
People are idiots for the most part and will vote against their own self interest.
So don't everyone get their Pollyanna glasses on and think this will be a cake walk.
13 posted on 05/27/2019 9:42:36 AM PDT by CapnJack
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To: Lurkinanloomin

Either one would be fantastic! I’m a big DeSantis fan.


14 posted on 05/27/2019 9:46:01 AM PDT by Fireone (Build the gallows first, then the wall!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

None of these models take into account the absolute insane hatred of Trump by the left


15 posted on 05/27/2019 10:05:01 AM PDT by uncbob
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To: Jim 0216

Mulvaney?


16 posted on 05/27/2019 10:11:26 AM PDT by Pollard (If you don't understand what I typed, you haven't read the classics.)
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To: CapnJack
So don't everyone get their Pollyanna glasses on and think this will be a cake walk.

I think Trump will win, but you're right, it ain't going to be easy. And there's this opinion:

Scott Adams: President Trump Has ‘No Chance of Re-Election’ Due to the Masters of the Universe

17 posted on 05/27/2019 10:15:35 AM PDT by T Ruth (Mohammedanism shall be destroyed.)
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To: CapnJack

When the media says he could win I suspect a sinister motive to either make his supporters complacent or energize the opposition. I will give both time and money to his campaign.


18 posted on 05/27/2019 10:16:54 AM PDT by Spok
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To: Lurkinanloomin
Biden, Bernie, Beto and Buttplug is their top tier.

My guess is that only buttgig will be a contender in that group. However, their dream candidate is a gay female "of color".

19 posted on 05/27/2019 10:42:45 AM PDT by pfflier
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

If you haven’t noticed, the Lame Stream criminal media have been tripping over each other to publish the latest article about how Americans are truly financially insecure “despite the robust economy”. I am convinced this is the latest messaging platform that the DNC has provided these lapdogs to foment fear, uncertainty, and doubt that the Dimm candidates can point to in their speeches.

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/05/23/business/economy/fed-400-dollar-survey.html


20 posted on 05/27/2019 10:44:44 AM PDT by NohSpinZone (First thing we do, let's kill all the lawyers)
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