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Hurricane Irma Live Thread Part II
NHC/NOAA ^ | NHC/NOAA | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse

Dangerous Category 5 Hurricane Irma had a devastating impact on islands in the Caribbean.

Hurricane and Storm surge watches were issued Thursday morning for South Florida. The Florida Keys began evacuating visitors and residents, followed by flood zones in Miami and Miami Beach. Sarasota FL declared a local state of emergency Thursday morning.

Polk County FL Sheriff Grady Judd said Wednesday that law enforcement authorities would check the identities of people who turn up at shelters--and take to jail anyone found to have an active arrest warrant. “If you go to a shelter for Irma and you have a warrant, we’ll gladly escort you to the safe and secure shelter called the Polk County Jail... “If you have a warrant, turn yourself in to the jail — it’s a secure shelter.” Judd also posted that sex offenders and sex predators would not be admitted to the shelters. "We cannot and we will not have innocent children in a shelter with sexual offenders & predators. Period." Judd's statements unleashed a liberal firestorm via Twitter.


Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions


NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Melbourne, FL
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar Jacksonville, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Charleston, SC
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Wilmington, NC, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Morehead City, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Norfolk, VA
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Buoy Data NC/SC/GA


Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki

Hurricane Irma Live Thread I


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: hurricane; hurricaneirma; hurricanejose; hurricanekatia; irma; livehurricaneirma
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To: advertising guy
CNN idiot just said Irma has just started making the turn and CNN is now goin live

The models, part of the dogma of Global Warming, say this is where it would turn. So, in their faith, it is turning. No matter what their eyes tell them.

2,601 posted on 09/09/2017 2:59:32 PM PDT by Ingtar
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To: Ingtar

600 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...

A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key recently reported
sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph
(94 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph
(69 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION


LOCATION...23.4N 80.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM SE OF KEY WEST FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...933 MB...27.55 INCHES


2,602 posted on 09/09/2017 3:02:31 PM PDT by Dave346
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To: SE Mom

Oh my... My neighbors own a ground floor condo in Naples, just a few block from the beach. The next 12 hours are going to be critical for them. If Irma doesn’t keep going west, I think their place is going to get creamed.


2,603 posted on 09/09/2017 3:02:40 PM PDT by SomeCallMeTim ( The best minds are not in government. If any were, business would hire them!)
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To: Islander7

It’s crazy! TWC is now blocked on my teevee. Cannot stand their abject stupidity. Even our locals are now struggling to fill up airtime.

Although I will say anything can happen.


2,604 posted on 09/09/2017 3:02:44 PM PDT by Maskot (Put every dem/lib in prison...like yesterday.)
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To: Dave346

Looks more like it’s going more westerly now.


2,605 posted on 09/09/2017 3:03:21 PM PDT by dfwgator
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To: wardaddy

Frederic made landfall in Mobile, not Ocean Springs but yes, it was big enough to cause major damage in Pascagoula inland to Hattiesburg.


2,606 posted on 09/09/2017 3:07:51 PM PDT by Lil Flower (American by birth. Southern by the Grace of God. ROLL TIDE!!)
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To: Dave346; NautiNurse
At 6:00 PM today there is a lot of rain but still little wind as you can see in my VIDEO. Look at the leaves. They are hardly moving which means low wind movement.

I admit it is sort of a boring video but for me, boring is good. Nothing drastic happening and I hope it stays that way.

2,607 posted on 09/09/2017 3:11:42 PM PDT by PJ-Comix (Waiting for 2024 Total Eclipse)
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To: Dave346

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK


At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Irma was located
near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 80.5 West. Irma is moving toward
the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwest motion is
expected to begin tonight with a turn toward the north-northwest on
Sunday. On the forecast track, the core of Irma will continue to
move near the north coast of Cuba during the next few hours, and
will reach the Florida Keys Sunday morning. The hurricane is
expected to move along or near the southwest coast of Florida Sunday
afternoon.

Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves
away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches
Florida.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches).


2,608 posted on 09/09/2017 3:20:12 PM PDT by Dave346
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To: metmom

Grew up there .
It’s was always low .
A Tragedy .
Condo corridors will be a mess on the beaches .


2,609 posted on 09/09/2017 3:24:09 PM PDT by ncalburt (ll)
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To: dfwgator

Yup, currently going 295 degrees - west-northwest but should be turning northwest this evening and north-northwest sometime tomorrow.


2,610 posted on 09/09/2017 3:25:04 PM PDT by Dave346
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To: SE Mom

Beautiful place .
This is a sad.
I grew up in Siesta key .
It was always low.
It’s the nightmare hurricane they always feared .

Head west storm,,,


2,611 posted on 09/09/2017 3:29:09 PM PDT by ncalburt (ll)
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To: abb

Always a great read .


2,612 posted on 09/09/2017 3:30:20 PM PDT by ncalburt (ll)
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To: SamAdams76; justa-hairyape; blam
When I was growing up, they would blame hurricanes on butterflies. One lonely butterfly would fly in circles and from that, the wind would get stronger and stronger and turn into a hurricane. Had that butterfly not flapped it wings at exactly the right time, the hurricane would not have happened. This "butterfly effect" is discussed seriously in chaos theory circles.

Fascinating:

The term itself was coined by Edward Lorenz for the effect which had been known long before, and is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (exact time of formation, exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as the flapping of the wings of a distant butterfly several weeks earlier. Lorenz discovered the effect when he observed that runs of his weather model with initial condition data that was rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome. [3]

In 1961, Lorenz was running a numerical computer model to redo a weather prediction from the middle of the previous run as a shortcut. He entered the initial condition 0.506 from the printout instead of entering the full precision 0.506127 value. The result was a completely different weather scenario.[7]

Lorenz wrote:

"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[8]

In 1963 Lorenz published a theoretical study of this effect in a highly cited, seminal paper called Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow[9][10] (the calculations were performed on a Royal McBee LGP-30 computer).[11][12] Elsewhere he stated:

One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.[12]

Following suggestions from colleagues, in later speeches and papers Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly. According to Lorenz, when he failed to provide a title for a talk he was to present at the 139th meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1972, Philip Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? as a title.[13] Although a butterfly flapping its wings has remained constant in the expression of this concept, the location of the butterfly, the consequences, and the location of the consequences have varied widely.[14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect

Reminds me of a quote by Francis Thompson. While there is dispute over how much an effect is produced by small changes, including the most basic beginnings of a hurricane and all that directs it, the reality is that all is interrelated. Weather forecasters have come a long way, but they would have to be omniscient and omnipotent to know and make it all work to achieve a certain end, which is not their job anyway.

2,613 posted on 09/09/2017 3:35:39 PM PDT by daniel1212 (Trust the risen Lord Jesus to save you as a damned and destitute sinner + be baptized + folllow Him)
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To: dfwgator

I guess you know more than tens of millions of dollars of supercomputers.


2,614 posted on 09/09/2017 3:41:43 PM PDT by Dave W
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To: Dave346

76,000 already without power and tornado warnings issued for Fort Lauderdale. Weather Channel


2,615 posted on 09/09/2017 3:41:59 PM PDT by sarasota
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To: dirtboy; All

Does anyone have a link or graphic of a detailed look at the past track? That is, good enough to clearly see Irma’s “wobbles” the last few days. It’s curiosity on my part / wondering if there is a pattern to it. I know most such storms wobble at least a little; in this case, Irma seems to have been almost skipping along the coast of Cuba. Plus, I wonder if it will continue to wobble that much, once it turns more NW or NNW? Hmmm...


2,616 posted on 09/09/2017 3:52:09 PM PDT by Paul R. (I don't want to be energy free, we want to be energy dominant in terms of the world. -D. Trump)
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To: Black Agnes
Bookmark 😉
2,617 posted on 09/09/2017 3:52:12 PM PDT by thesearethetimes... (Had I brought Christ with me, the outcome would have been different. Dr.Eric Cunningham)
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To: Paul R.
Does anyone have a link or graphic of a detailed look at the past track? That is, good enough to clearly see Irma’s “wobbles” the last few days. It’s curiosity on my part / wondering if there is a pattern to it. I know most such storms wobble at least a little; in this case, Irma seems to have been almost skipping along the coast of Cuba. Plus, I wonder if it will continue to wobble that much, once it turns more NW or NNW? Hmmm...

I found it in .kmz file format, but I don't have an easy way to open that format. (I would need Google Earth, I believe.)

2,618 posted on 09/09/2017 3:57:27 PM PDT by Paul R. (I don't want to be energy free, we want to be energy dominant in terms of the world. -D. Trump)
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To: MayflowerMadam

Ditto — we seriously considered North Ft. Myers or Punta Gorda. Could be ground zero. Sure glad we didn’t buy.


2,619 posted on 09/09/2017 3:59:04 PM PDT by hillarynot (I play in Peoria)
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To: Paul R.

This one is pretty good for that .....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif


2,620 posted on 09/09/2017 4:06:23 PM PDT by boycott
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