Posted on 09/07/2017 8:09:47 AM PDT by NautiNurse
The models, part of the dogma of Global Warming, say this is where it would turn. So, in their faith, it is turning. No matter what their eyes tell them.
600 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017
...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS NOW OCCURRING IN THE FLORIDA KEYS...
A National Ocean Service station in Vaca Key recently reported
sustained winds of 46 mph (74 km/h) with a gust to 59 mph
(94 km/h). Marathon recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph
(69 km/h) with a gust to 66 mph (106 km/h).
SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
Oh my... My neighbors own a ground floor condo in Naples, just a few block from the beach. The next 12 hours are going to be critical for them. If Irma doesn’t keep going west, I think their place is going to get creamed.
It’s crazy! TWC is now blocked on my teevee. Cannot stand their abject stupidity. Even our locals are now struggling to fill up airtime.
Although I will say anything can happen.
Looks more like it’s going more westerly now.
Frederic made landfall in Mobile, not Ocean Springs but yes, it was big enough to cause major damage in Pascagoula inland to Hattiesburg.
I admit it is sort of a boring video but for me, boring is good. Nothing drastic happening and I hope it stays that way.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph (205 km/h) with higher
gusts. Irma is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Irma is forecast to restrengthen once it moves
away from Cuba and remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches
Florida.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from
the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195
miles (315 km). Ft. Lauderdale/Hollywood International airport
recently reported a sustained wind of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust
of 70 mph (113 km/h).
The latest minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter plane was 933 mb (27.55 inches).
Grew up there .
It’s was always low .
A Tragedy .
Condo corridors will be a mess on the beaches .
Yup, currently going 295 degrees - west-northwest but should be turning northwest this evening and north-northwest sometime tomorrow.
Beautiful place .
This is a sad.
I grew up in Siesta key .
It was always low.
It’s the nightmare hurricane they always feared .
Head west storm,,,
Always a great read .
Fascinating:
The term itself was coined by Edward Lorenz for the effect which had been known long before, and is derived from the metaphorical example of the details of a tornado (exact time of formation, exact path taken) being influenced by minor perturbations such as the flapping of the wings of a distant butterfly several weeks earlier. Lorenz discovered the effect when he observed that runs of his weather model with initial condition data that was rounded in a seemingly inconsequential manner would fail to reproduce the results of runs with the unrounded initial condition data. A very small change in initial conditions had created a significantly different outcome. [3]
In 1961, Lorenz was running a numerical computer model to redo a weather prediction from the middle of the previous run as a shortcut. He entered the initial condition 0.506 from the printout instead of entering the full precision 0.506127 value. The result was a completely different weather scenario.[7]
Lorenz wrote:
"At one point I decided to repeat some of the computations in order to examine what was happening in greater detail. I stopped the computer, typed in a line of numbers that it had printed out a while earlier, and set it running again. I went down the hall for a cup of coffee and returned after about an hour, during which time the computer had simulated about two months of weather. The numbers being printed were nothing like the old ones. I immediately suspected a weak vacuum tube or some other computer trouble, which was not uncommon, but before calling for service I decided to see just where the mistake had occurred, knowing that this could speed up the servicing process. Instead of a sudden break, I found that the new values at first repeated the old ones, but soon afterward differed by one and then several units in the last decimal place, and then began to differ in the next to the last place and then in the place before that. In fact, the differences more or less steadily doubled in size every four days or so, until all resemblance with the original output disappeared somewhere in the second month. This was enough to tell me what had happened: the numbers that I had typed in were not the exact original numbers, but were the rounded-off values that had appeared in the original printout. The initial round-off errors were the culprits; they were steadily amplifying until they dominated the solution." (E. N. Lorenz, The Essence of Chaos, U. Washington Press, Seattle (1993), page 134)[8]
In 1963 Lorenz published a theoretical study of this effect in a highly cited, seminal paper called Deterministic Nonperiodic Flow[9][10] (the calculations were performed on a Royal McBee LGP-30 computer).[11][12] Elsewhere he stated:
One meteorologist remarked that if the theory were correct, one flap of a sea gull's wings would be enough to alter the course of the weather forever. The controversy has not yet been settled, but the most recent evidence seems to favor the sea gulls.[12]
Following suggestions from colleagues, in later speeches and papers Lorenz used the more poetic butterfly. According to Lorenz, when he failed to provide a title for a talk he was to present at the 139th meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science in 1972, Philip Merilees concocted Does the flap of a butterfly’s wings in Brazil set off a tornado in Texas? as a title.[13] Although a butterfly flapping its wings has remained constant in the expression of this concept, the location of the butterfly, the consequences, and the location of the consequences have varied widely.[14] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
Reminds me of a quote by Francis Thompson. While there is dispute over how much an effect is produced by small changes, including the most basic beginnings of a hurricane and all that directs it, the reality is that all is interrelated. Weather forecasters have come a long way, but they would have to be omniscient and omnipotent to know and make it all work to achieve a certain end, which is not their job anyway.
I guess you know more than tens of millions of dollars of supercomputers.
76,000 already without power and tornado warnings issued for Fort Lauderdale. Weather Channel
Does anyone have a link or graphic of a detailed look at the past track? That is, good enough to clearly see Irma’s “wobbles” the last few days. It’s curiosity on my part / wondering if there is a pattern to it. I know most such storms wobble at least a little; in this case, Irma seems to have been almost skipping along the coast of Cuba. Plus, I wonder if it will continue to wobble that much, once it turns more NW or NNW? Hmmm...
I found it in .kmz file format, but I don't have an easy way to open that format. (I would need Google Earth, I believe.)
Ditto — we seriously considered North Ft. Myers or Punta Gorda. Could be ground zero. Sure glad we didn’t buy.
This one is pretty good for that .....
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif
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