Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Go at 6AM
Was on Grand Caymen about a year after they got hit hard and it was a different place. Very few trees left - just sticks with no foliage on them.
Bump. Trying to raise this up in Breaking.
Just dang:
https://twitter.com/ericholthaus/status/905154639242387461
Wow. Hurricane #Irma is now expected to *exceed* the theoretical maximum intensity for a storm in its environment.
“We have a couple of neighborhood kids honeymooning in Jamaica till Saturday.... “
Yikes ! I hope they leave.
.
Governor just suspended all toll road charges...
If they’d already been prepped, they wouldn’t have to stand in lines now. It’s not like they hadn’t been given days of warnings and it’s not as if FL has never had a hurricane before. But the clueless will complain and there will be many who will blame Trump like that muzzie in Houston because the grocery store was out of bread at the very last minute before Harvey hit.
And do NOT tie your dogs to a tree like those @(*^&%)$ did in Harvey. Take all the pets out with you.
Hope to be able to meet him. Don’t know if he’ll be there or not. Don’t know if anyone will be there.....
He’s a contender! That’s for sure!
You’d be staying at where Roland Martin’s used to be so bring a tent.
These storms get to a maximum and then fall down. They gather their strength back up and then fall again.
The Eye Wall and subsequent low pressure will tell you the magnitude. Anything under 950mb is one bad ass system.
If I am in Florida my trip to GA starts now.
Sending tax dollars to bail out Puerto Rico again will be forefront for Congress. Any excuse to put DACA on the back burner.
As we learned with Harvey, even if it drops to a 1 or 2, if it stalls on top of an area, the flooding damage can be as bad as the wind speed with a 4 or 5.
I think, in general, flooding causes more death and destruction than any other weather phenomenon.
Aw heck I’m sure they will be alright. Probably been through a dozen or more since he’s had the place.
Bruno Falkenstein's Hurricane is fantastic! Best blackened grouper sandwich in the world!
He also donates a lot of time and effort to protecting sea turtles.
www.seaturtletrackers.org
I’m in Orlando.
Walked in & out of the local Winn Dixie this morning. Worst problem was that there were 7 people in line at the checkout.
The real question is to whether to stay or leave...
WTNT41 KNHC 052052
TCDAT1
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
Irma continues to exhibit a remarkably impressive satellite
presentation. The intensity was increased to 160 kt on the 1800
UTC intermediate public advisory based on a couple of SFMR winds of
160 kt measured in the northeastern eyewall by the Air Force
aircraft just prior to that time. The minimum pressure measured
by a dropsonde in the eye was 926 mb. Irma becomes only the fifth
Atlantic basin hurricane with a peak wind speed of 160 kt or
higher. The others are Allen (1980), the Labor Day Hurricane
of 1935, Gilbert (1988), and Wilma (2005).
The eye of Irma is within range of the Meteo France radar in the
northeastern Caribbean, and recent images show the development of
an outer eyewall, likely the beginning stages of an eyewall
replacement. These changes in inner-core structure will likely
result in fluctuations in intensity during the next couple of days.
Otherwise, increasing upper-ocean heat content and a very favorable
upper-level pattern are expected to allow Irma to remain a category
4 or 5 hurricane during the next several days. Once again, the NHC
forecast shows limited interaction of the hurricane with the islands
of the Greater Antilles.
Fixes from the latest satellite and radar imagery suggest that Irma
is moving a little north of due west or 280/13 kt. A strong ridge
extending southwestward from the central Atlantic is expected to
steer Irma west-northwestward during the couple of days. A large
mid-latitude trough over the eastern United States is forecast to
lift northeastward, allowing the ridge to build westward and keep
Irma on a westward to west-northwestward heading through Friday.
Over the weekend, a shortwave trough diving southward over the
east-central U.S. is expected to weaken the western portion of
the ridge, causing Irma to turn poleward. The dynamical model
guidance is in good agreement through 72 hours, but there is
increasing spread thereafter. The HWRF, UKMET, and ECMWF show a
more southerly track and a sharper turn around day 5, while the GFS
is farther north and east late in the period. The NHC track is near
a consensus of these models and close to the HFIP corrected
consensus. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast
track, especially at the longer ranges, since the average NHC track
errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5,
respectively.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Irma is a potentially catastrophic category 5 hurricane and will
bring life-threatening wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards to
portions of the northeastern Leeward Islands tonight and tomorrow.
These hazards will spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico tomorrow. Preparations should be rushed to completion before
the arrival of tropical-storm force winds tomorrow morning in Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico.
2. A hurricane warning is in effect for the northern coast of the
Dominican Republic, with hurricane watches for Haiti, the
southeastern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos. Irma is likely to
bring dangerous wind, storm surge, and rainfall to these areas from
Wednesday night through Friday.
3. Irma could directly affect the remainder of the Bahamas and Cuba
as an extremely dangerous major hurricane later this week. Residents
in these areas should monitor the progress of Irma and listen to
advice given by officials.
4. The chance of direct impacts from Irma beginning later this week
and this weekend from wind, storm surge, and rainfall continues to
increase in the Florida Keys and portions of the Florida Peninsula.
However, it is too soon to specify the timing and magnitude of these
impacts.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 59.8W 160 KT 185 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 17.6N 61.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 18.5N 64.6W 150 KT 175 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 19.5N 67.3W 145 KT 165 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 70.1W 140 KT 160 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 21.6N 75.3W 135 KT 155 MPH
96H 09/1800Z 22.7N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
120H 10/1800Z 24.4N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
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