Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
I’m getting out. Going to the Villages. Even if it hits there it won’t hit as a 5 which is cruel and unusual....
Central Cuba is pretty flat, the mountains are in the far SE.
I have a HUGE trip set up for Hatteras. I don’t wish this monster on anyone. I was hoping for a trek that takes it into open water. I doesn’t seem like that will happen.
I’m thinking that Irma will be like a repeat of Isaac in 2012 in terms of track and rain.
Not sure what anyone else might be thinking on the subject, but a lot of rainfall on that lake and in the Everglades would tend to 'flush' the swamp... most likely toward Miami.
While that would cause locally heavy flooding (hey, everything is low-level over there anyway), it would also flush the snakes and gators back into populated areas.
"No change to ECMWF 12z forecast from last night's model run. A long sojourn over Cuba & then a hard right turn north across FL keys."
Ok then. Think Donna 1960 minus the track after FL (Irma will most likely turn west, not race up the coast).
Irma will only be Donna if it maintains most of its strength. In contrast Irma will interact with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and possibly Cuba on the forecast track. So very likely will be weaker when it gets there.
Thanks very much NN.
I do to,although looks like the villages may see some action as well,but still nothing like what we will get in the keys.Got an Fr mail for ya.
Hopefully, Hemingway kitties and every other. cat on the island will be taken to the solid coral rock Hemingway House and kept away from windows. The house will stand even if everything else blows away.
Glad to hear it. Hope the storm will be less than everyone's currently predicting.
Excellent images.....
Right now it looks like an initial hit at the keys and then into the gulf with a second hit somewhere on the West coast but that could easily change.
Good thing she has you!
Yes, that’s cutting it close. That’ll probably change. There’s just so many people that need to get out, mainly because some hotels cannot guarantee their safety here or in the neighboring islands.
heres barbuda buoy near the antilles
87 degree water
N ( 360 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 8.9 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 15.0 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.70 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.0 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 87.4 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 9.7 kts
yeah for sure,no telling about avaliablity for hotel/motels anywhere in Florida much less prices.
We need a source for that.
A very similar path, too, no less.
I’m guessing the loss of life in that one was because people didn’t know it was coming until it hit.
Forecasting now can help with that and at least warn people.
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