Hurricane Irma Live Thread

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[NautiNurse]

While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.

FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM

Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki

[NautiNurse]

Creepy: The GFS model has Irma pressure 911mb on 9/11 along FL Atlantic coast.

[janetjanet998]

CMC models continues waaaaaaaaay west

[Oldeconomybuyer]

“The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane was the most intense hurricane to make landfall in the United States on record, as well as the 3rd most intense Atlantic hurricane ever.”

“The compact and intense hurricane caused extreme damage in the upper Florida Keys, as a storm surge of approximately 18 to 20 feet (5.5–6 meters) swept over the low-lying islands. The hurricane’s strong winds and the surge destroyed nearly all the structures between Tavernier and Marathon. The town of Islamorada was obliterated. Portions of the Key West Extension of the Florida East Coast Railway were severely damaged or destroyed. The hurricane also caused additional damage in northwest Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1935_Labor_Day_hurricane

[PJ-Comix]

Lastest models including Bastardi’s shows Irma going WEST of Florida.

[Cementjungle]

He drilled through existing old crown on the tooth that we think was the culprit and he did root canal on the one root he could find. I hope that was the actual culprit... will see how it shapes up in a day or so... otherwise he assures me I can get back in Thu or Fri if need be. Teeth are such a pain in the neck sometimes!!

[Jim W N]

Latest "spaghetti" model for Irma. Looks about the same, most thinking it will go straight up the Florida peninsula.

[alancarp]

Good call.. MONROE COUNTY (Fla Keys) - mandatory evacuation order has been issued.

Here's the press release via twitter.

[Cementjungle]

Lastest models including Bastardi’s shows Irma going WEST of Florida.

The trick is to put out lots of different models, with all sorts of different tracks. Then, when it's all over you can pick the one that matches what happened and say "See, I called it!!"

[Oldeconomybuyer]

Latest from Joe Bastardi, WeatherBell:

[PJ-Comix]

Most of the WWI vets working on a government project in the Keys drowned during the 1935 hurricane. A rescue train was sent south to them but it was delayed and arrived just as the hurricane hit and rolled it over on its side.

In the aftermath, there was a problem of body disposal. The Keys have hard limestone just inches below the surface so no graves could be dug. They ended up piling the bodies up and setting fire to them.

[PJ-Comix]

He drilled through existing old crown on the tooth that we think was the culprit and he did root canal on the one root he could find. I hope that was the actual culprit... will see how it shapes up in a day or so... otherwise he assures me I can get back in Thu or Fri if need be. Teeth are such a pain in the neck sometimes!!

The trick is to inherit perfect teeth. My teeth are an almost exact replica of my Dad's teeth and he never had cavities nor fillings. Ditto for me.

[janetjanet998]

recon just found 160 kt surface winds..185 MPH

[American Quilter]

Thanks for this thread, NautiNurse! You do a great job.

[Karoo]

Yeah, where I am will get lots of rain, mud slides, areas of severe damage due to the flood. I’m dreading this. Ivan hit me hard, and I have PTSD from Ivan.
Being without news for wk was bad. Could not even tell if Ivan was headed our way as power was out before it flooded our little acreage. NO wifi.
Not knowing is my big fear; because if I knew that Irma would wipe out my home and acreage, I would leave early.
So I pray.

[GOYAKLA]

Anyone beside me, following IRMA’s track on Google Earth?

[janetjanet998]

This is basically a HUGE F5 Tornado..since the tornado scale is measured by 3 second wind Gusts...

gusts 215 MPH in Irma

although that’s only possible at/near the coast since the friction of the land which makes F5 tornadoes even more impressive since they have to deal with that friction

I should add the winds a few hundred feet off the ground will be even more fast then surface(ie high rise buildings)

[American Quilter]

Best of luck to you, rodguy!

[mewzilla]

Thanks for that link. I see someone asked about the Hemingway House cats. No reply to her yet. I was wondering about the kitties, too.

[American Quilter]

But our main defense is living in Utah.

LOL! Now that was unexpected. Great post.

[prophetic]

Well its a sad fact of life that there are people who are 100% wrong for their entire careers and still gets paid. Weathermen, economists, professors, politicians, psychics & company readily comes to mind.