Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
I’m in Indiana County..
We did Thanksgiving there last year.
Had to get a hand truck to roll me away from the table.
5.56mm
All the models appear to have a sudden turn north, a slight stall and then northernly path. That path either takes them up the Miami coast, up the spine after the lower keys, or up the Gulf side after hitting the middle/outer keys. The problem is that when it is clear when and where the turn occurs, the northern path will still be up in the air for another three to six hours — by that time the storm is upon the Florida coast, where ever that may be.
In this storm, waiting on a clear path to be understood will leave no room for early and prudent departures.
As Tampa is flood prone, do you plan to wait for the evac order? I ask out of polite concern, but I also have family on Davis Islands.
Some news:
- The head of the Puerto Rico Electric Power Authority says areas could be without power for up to four months.
- President Trump has ordered the USS Kearsarge Amphibious Landing Carrier to our area for assistance.
- All flights from SJU to the little islands are cancelled.
- Some hotels along the north shore are evacuating their guests.
- Dry law (no alcohol sales) in effect Wednesday at 6:00 AM).
- Shelters for those in flood-prone areas are now open. the governor is urging everyone to evacuate today.
- Water Reservoir gates will be opened at noon to lower levels by 2 meters. Residents downstream must remain alert.
- Governor Rossello has requested from President Trump a Prelandfall Emergency Declaration.
- The U.S. Coast Guard has declared Condition Yankee in the Port of San Juan. No new vessels permitted in. Present large ships must head out to sea today.
My wife and I lived on Sugarloaf Key, 17 miles from Key West, for 10 years from 1998 - we ducked quite a few hurricanes there, Georges and Wilma being the worst. Irma has the potential to take out the approaches to the bridges in the keys - very bad.
It happened with Hurricane Luis in 1995. More or less the same trajectory and strength of this one up to St. Maarten, and then it bounced off to the north.
Final decision should be made Thursday I reckon.
Aaaaand they’ll finish my brand new roof today. Isn’t that grand?
Montour County, Pennsylvania......the smallest county in the commonwealth!
This guy forecasts an Irma strike and then another hurricane strike in the same place seven days later.
Should be far enough inland, and definitely high enough.
We have good friends who recently moved to Beaufort/Savannah full time; they’ve had the place in Beaufort for a while as a second home, his job is now in Savannah vs. ATL area.
I suspect he’ll stay in the hospital.
We love visiting Beaufort, but I wouldn’t want to live there.
“where is the question...”
Dear Irma, I realize you have to do your thing, go where you want to go, and trash whatever may be there. My ex lives somewhere in South Florida, city and address unknown to me. Feel free to seek out that area, and do what property mayhem you must.
Watching Irma from safe distance in Irmo.
We’re at the So. end of the bay, so not at the bottom of the fish bowl. During Charley, many folks who evacuated “an inevitable strike on Tampa Bay” ended up in the direct path of the storm by moving inland. The options are rather limited along the FL peninsula, so better to wait for greater certainty of the path.
This thing has me worried...
well they moved the dredge from the eau gallie river which opened up the anchorage so imma ride it out here
Just getting number up...root canal to start in a minute.
Be prepared, have your supplies ready and your bug-out kit.
For Pennsylvania, the threat right now will be flooding, which we have handled many times.
Know what areas around you flood and take precautions.
The antidote to fear is knowledge and preparation.
Dang, in 2004 Frances (Sept 5) and Jeanne (Sept 26) made landfall within 3 miles of each other on Hutchinson Island (Stuart) FL.
Glad you are taking care of the painful tooth.
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