All the models appear to have a sudden turn north, a slight stall and then northernly path. That path either takes them up the Miami coast, up the spine after the lower keys, or up the Gulf side after hitting the middle/outer keys. The problem is that when it is clear when and where the turn occurs, the northern path will still be up in the air for another three to six hours — by that time the storm is upon the Florida coast, where ever that may be.
In this storm, waiting on a clear path to be understood will leave no room for early and prudent departures.
As Tampa is flood prone, do you plan to wait for the evac order? I ask out of polite concern, but I also have family on Davis Islands.
We’re at the So. end of the bay, so not at the bottom of the fish bowl. During Charley, many folks who evacuated “an inevitable strike on Tampa Bay” ended up in the direct path of the storm by moving inland. The options are rather limited along the FL peninsula, so better to wait for greater certainty of the path.
Brilliant analysis and why we are leaving at 4:00 am Thursday morning.no clear pathway on tracking.