Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
Good that you have checked in here. Tension is high in FL.
Thank you for checking in. If you bug out—safe travels to you.
| Name | Year | Pressure (mb) | Max sustained wind speed (mph) | Location |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patricia | 2015 | 880 | 200 | Eastern Pacific |
| Wilma | 2005 | 882 | 175 | Atlantic |
| Gilbert | 1988 | 888 | 185 | Atlantic |
| Labor Day | 1935 | 892 | 150-200 | Atlantic |
| Rita | 2005 | 897 | 175 | Atlantic |
| Allen | 1980 | 899 | 190 | Atlantic |
| Linda | 1997 | 902 | 185 | Eastern Pacific |
| Katrina | 2005 | 902 | 175 | Atlantic |
| Camille | 1969 | 905 | 190 | Atlantic |
| Mitch | 1998 | 905 | 180 | Atlantic |
Current GFS model run. It trends a bit more eastward than the Euro, which runs Irma right up the middle of Florida.
bump!
For sure. I don’t expect her to be a Cat 5 at landfall here on the mainland, although I guess it’s possible. But unlikely.
Prayers to all in the Caribbean today.
Air temp does not matter. Hurricanes feed on water temperature.
new 12z GFS looks like a few miles even more east then the 06z run
Well I guess that matters once they hit land.
Funny guy.
WeatherBell seems to be more spot on earlier than the other. I like their forecast tracks.
Anyway, here's the latest. I can't tell whether this is Irma's projected path or my granddaughter's scribble she brought home from kindergarten today.
My forecast (embargoed till pm) shifted west to the Keys.CFSV2 has done best of models.has had US hit for 6 days.
even further w this am— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) September 5, 2017
Hey, DB! I was in the Sun City HEB yesteday and thought of you. Only place that had gas, as you know.
i put out 3 anchors from the bow and nothing from the stern
Other stations were getting gas and then getting sucked dry.
"Our morning track allows for some land interaction. Remember 1935 after Keys weakened." - Joe Bastardi, Twitter
Sister took BIL to BIA at 3am; there were tankers at every station along 183.
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