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Hurricane Irma Live Thread
NHC/NOAA ^ | NHC/NOAA | NHC/NOAA

Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse

While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.

FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.


Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM


Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki


TOPICS: Breaking News; Extended News; Front Page News; News/Current Events; US: Florida; US: Georgia; US: North Carolina; US: South Carolina
KEYWORDS: cat6; category6; florida; hurricane; hurricaneirma; irma; livehurricaneirma; nautinurse; prepper; preppers; puertorico; virginislands
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To: commish

Good that you have checked in here. Tension is high in FL.


681 posted on 09/05/2017 8:58:44 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Tear down the Mexican Carrier plant and use the materials to build the wall)
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To: LuvFreeRepublic

Thank you for checking in. If you bug out—safe travels to you.


682 posted on 09/05/2017 9:00:07 AM PDT by NautiNurse (Tear down the Mexican Carrier plant and use the materials to build the wall)
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To: blam
The 10 strongest hurricanes ever recorded in the Western Hemisphere.  Storms ranked by lowest recorded central pressure.  Lower pressure indicates stronger storms.
 
 
Name Year Pressure (mb) Max sustained wind speed (mph) Location
Patricia 2015 880 200 Eastern Pacific
Wilma 2005 882 175 Atlantic
Gilbert 1988 888 185 Atlantic
Labor Day 1935 892 150-200 Atlantic
Rita 2005 897 175 Atlantic
Allen 1980 899 190 Atlantic
Linda 1997 902 185 Eastern Pacific
Katrina 2005 902 175 Atlantic
Camille 1969 905 190 Atlantic
Mitch 1998 905 180 Atlantic

 

683 posted on 09/05/2017 9:01:04 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: PJ-Comix

Current GFS model run. It trends a bit more eastward than the Euro, which runs Irma right up the middle of Florida.


684 posted on 09/05/2017 9:01:07 AM PDT by dirtboy
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bump!


685 posted on 09/05/2017 9:01:51 AM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: blam
If the scale went higher than a 5+

Cat 1 - 74–95 mph
Cat 2 - 96–110 mph
Cat 3 - 111–129 mph
Cat 4 - 130–156 mph
Cat 5 - 157 - 170 mph
Cat 6 - 171 - 190 mph
Cat 7 - 190 mph plus
686 posted on 09/05/2017 9:04:31 AM PDT by Enlightened1
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To: justa-hairyape

For sure. I don’t expect her to be a Cat 5 at landfall here on the mainland, although I guess it’s possible. But unlikely.

Prayers to all in the Caribbean today.


687 posted on 09/05/2017 9:04:32 AM PDT by SE Mom (Screaming Eagle mom)
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To: Cats Pajamas
In Panama City on Friday night we are supposed have 63 degree low temp. Very unseasonable for September and have lived here my whole life.

Air temp does not matter. Hurricanes feed on water temperature.

688 posted on 09/05/2017 9:05:29 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The largest and most dangerous hate-group in the US is now the Democratic Party)
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To: All

new 12z GFS looks like a few miles even more east then the 06z run


689 posted on 09/05/2017 9:05:35 AM PDT by janetjanet998
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To: Erik Latranyi

Well I guess that matters once they hit land.


690 posted on 09/05/2017 9:07:02 AM PDT by Cats Pajamas
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To: MagUSNRET

Funny guy.


691 posted on 09/05/2017 9:07:16 AM PDT by HotHunt
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To: dirtboy
Current GFS model run. It trends a bit more eastward than the Euro, which runs Irma right up the middle of Florida.

WeatherBell seems to be more spot on earlier than the other. I like their forecast tracks.

692 posted on 09/05/2017 9:08:43 AM PDT by Erik Latranyi (The largest and most dangerous hate-group in the US is now the Democratic Party)
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To: snippy_about_it
That's OK, you can't fight the establishment - or on second thought, can you?

Anyway, here's the latest. I can't tell whether this is Irma's projected path or my granddaughter's scribble she brought home from kindergarten today.


693 posted on 09/05/2017 9:09:01 AM PDT by Jim W N
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To: dirtboy

My forecast (embargoed till pm) shifted west to the Keys.CFSV2 has done best of models.has had US hit for 6 days.
even further w this am— Joe Bastardi (@BigJoeBastardi) September 5, 2017


694 posted on 09/05/2017 9:13:31 AM PDT by PJ-Comix (Waiting for 2024 Total Eclipse)
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To: dirtboy

Hey, DB! I was in the Sun City HEB yesteday and thought of you. Only place that had gas, as you know.


695 posted on 09/05/2017 9:18:17 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: Rebelbase

i put out 3 anchors from the bow and nothing from the stern


696 posted on 09/05/2017 9:19:13 AM PDT by WorkerbeeCitizen
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To: txhurl

Other stations were getting gas and then getting sucked dry.


697 posted on 09/05/2017 9:20:31 AM PDT by dirtboy
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To: All

"Our morning track allows for some land interaction. Remember 1935 after Keys weakened." - Joe Bastardi, Twitter

698 posted on 09/05/2017 9:25:17 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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To: dirtboy

Sister took BIL to BIA at 3am; there were tankers at every station along 183.


699 posted on 09/05/2017 9:27:33 AM PDT by txhurl
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To: All
1935 Labor Day Hurricane:


700 posted on 09/05/2017 9:28:42 AM PDT by Oldeconomybuyer (The problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people's money.)
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