Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
In this case - you’d better haul your boat out of the water, and truck her off as far away as possible from Irma.
Here on the upper Gulf coast in the big bend are of Florida the mood has turned somber; no panic yet but stores are bust. Looking more likely the track taks Irma into the Gulf then a north turn, West coast of FL up to panhandle better keep a close eye on this one.
Thanks God for the Cajun Navy and other volunteers... turns out the professionals DID need help... AND again, thanks to YOU NautiNurse for keeping these threads going. I’m going inland tomorrow... decided this one’s too big to risk.
That is a HUGE find!
Most do not realize that Irma has not really hit the warmest waters yet.
Best case scenario for Florida would be if Irma hugs north coasts of Santo Domingo, Haiti, and Cuba where the mountains greatly reduce Irma's strength. Then the cold front moving into Florida keeps Irma south of Key West until it turns north into the Gulf west of Florida where the cold front diminishes Irma to just a tropical storm. This scenario would just see a lot of rainfall for Florida but no hurricane strike.
In a couple of days we shall see how this scenario starts playing out.
Yow! Just my luck that my post is #666 on this thread.
Gusts 220 mph, 927mb pressure.
YIKES!
This is going to be a horrible disaster for the Caribbean but hopefully interaction with the islands will weaken Irma significantly and then cooler than normal weather in the Gulf will weaken her before US landfall.
Ouch, I live in Hobe Sound...
I am in Viera, between Melbourne and Rockledge. Scary situation, but I am almost fully prepared, as best as anyone can be with a Cat 5. I may be heading north, but it is too early to know for sure. Ironically, my son is in the Alabama National Guard and they have been put on alert. He may be heading to Florida, while I head north to his apartment.
Prayers for all.
That is still 132 hours out. When the models get to 78 hours out and still show such a track, that’s when you can have fairly high confidence in the forecast track.
In Panama City on Friday night we are supposed have 63 degree low temp. Very unseasonable for September and have lived here my whole life.
Only hope now is she wound up too early and will be Cat 3 when it gets close to Florida. Main problem once again will be a stall then. Houston was about 100 miles east of stall point for Harvey. Of course anywhere near landfall will be wrecked.
Where does that forecast come from? The latest forecasts I’ve seen shows Irma moving into Gulf between southern peninsula of Florida and Cuba.
A storm like that goes where it wants to go.
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