Posted on 09/04/2017 2:02:19 PM PDT by NautiNurse
While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.
Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.
FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM
Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki
I would consider GA. Anybody in S.FL needs to get away.
I do not know if the front will stop it. The model runs seem to show the front breaking up before Irma. That is, unless I am looking at the animations incorrectly.
It going to have a slow-down and this storm may go underneath if you will. If it does then the gulf will get this monster and it will go due west.
Don’t forget the ones who say it’s all hype anyway and the storm won’t be as bad as the media is making it.
They’re reporting top sustained winds of 185 MPH now..........my wife has a generator set back at work for us, in case this beast aims itself at the Florida panhandle. As the crow flies, we’re only about 250 miles due north of Apalachicola and Tallahassee.
GMTA
12z EURO appears to be more south and into Cuba
I went to the beach here in Broward County on Sunday and it was so warm that there wasn’t even that brief moment of trying to get used to it.
12z EURO more SW
My sister lives in SC and she is already prepping.
If this takes the forecast track, she’ll be on the bad side of it.
Orlando is going to be packed everyone is going there.
Yeah they had it skirting the coast of Cuba yesterday up until last night actually now it’s going to go directly over Cuba. I’m so confused how it’s going to do that sharp turn north.
Looks like Bahia Honda. Some of the bridges are in good shape others maybe not. This will be a big shakedown we shall see.
Lots of areas on US1 that are low that flood almost immediately, that will be a huge problem.
Jacksonville, Florida here. Keeping an eye on things. At the very least we are going to get a LOT of rain from Irma.
That’s pretty and ugly at the same time.
What is the problem with Okeechobee for us out of staters?
Good or bad, it will be a happening place with all the hotels filled.
It gets stronger.
And I see it's already a 5.
That is SOOOO bad.
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