Hurricane Irma Live Thread

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[NautiNurse]

While thoughts and prayers are with our Texas FRiends and neighbors, we are at the peak of the Atlantic Tropical Storm season. Hurricane Irma continues its trek from Cape Verde across the pond and toward the Hebert Box (see below). People with interests in the Southeastern U.S. and Gulf of Mexico should be alert to the forecast path updates for this powerful storm. It is important to note that the average NHC track errors are about 175 and 225 statute miles at days 4 and 5, respectively.

Hurricane Irma originally had a small wind field. In the past 24 hours, however, the wind field has expanded with hurriance force winds up to 40 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds up to 140 miles from the storm center.

FL Governor Rick Scott reminds Floridians: Families should take time today to make sure you have a disaster plan and fully-stocked Disaster Supply Kit. Florida residents from West Palm Beach to Tampa Bay are heeding the alert. Store shelves are emptying of bottled water.

Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links

Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NOAA Local Weather Statements/Radar San Juan, Puerto Rico
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Miami, FL
NHC Local Weather Statements/Radar Key West, FL
Buoy Data Caribbean
Buoy Data SE US & GOM

Hebert Box - Mash Pic for Tutorial
Credit: By J Cricket - Modification of map from Wiki

[NautiNurse]

hmmm...the eye is squiggly...so soon after EWR?

[SheepWhisperer]

Pressure dropping too =o/

[Chgogal]

FYI

[dirtboy]

There were some stunning images last month of eyewall vortices in Harvey at landfall, that might be what we are seeing here, similar strengths and intensification rates.

[NautiNurse]

I still get itchy keyboard fingers to snark at some of the comments from the first Harvey thread. Didn’t take long for those annoying cretins to quietly slither away.

[CaptainK]

A site with continuous positioning of the hurricane and the currents surrounding it:

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-78.78,19.29,562/loc=147.815,15.559

[Tilted Irish Kilt]

Shadowstrike :"..hoping my generator parts get here, and that I really won’t need it."

When in doubt, get extra parts of the most susceptable parts that break down
Have a "fall back" plan - a generator to use gasoline, natural gas, or diesel.
#1 Gasoline is readily available and common - but lacks stability over time, due to separation (You do know that gasoline has water in it,.. right?
It needs stabilzer to store for long periods of time ), but is not temperature sensitive.
#2 Natural gas is good, because it is common, available almost everywhere, but needs pressure to keep it flowing (or in a pressure regulated container)
but it is not temperature sensitive.
#3 Diesel is not pressure sensitive, but is temperature sensitive, and uses a 'glow plug' to burn, and gives higher BTUs for energy, power, and heat. It needs stabilizer.
In extremely cold conditions (sub +10 degrees F), diesel turns to a gel unless warmed, or recirculated, and could clog fuel lines.

Harbor Freight sells a conversion kit which allows all three fuel sources to be used on any appliance; conversion kits are available elsewhere as well;
although a stabilizer is required for long term storage.
Of all three fuel sources, diesel is the easiest to store for long-term storage since it is less volatile, and needs a heat source, but stores better than all other fuels.

[NautiNurse]

That’s definitely a good one.

[rdl6989]

Bump

[CaptainK]

Good and scary.

[Viking2002]

Those computer models - as they currently are - disturb me. We are right on the AL/GA line. My personal trigger threshold is the Thursday 12 Zulu models. But we're going to do preliminary prepping before that. I'm a trained NWS storm spotter with a college background in this, and the physics of it are triggering my internal spook alarm.

Watching closely. Very closely.

[SE Mom]

Yes! About every two weeks I do just that!

Tomorrow is stock up on chocolate day. I’m all set otherwise. My son is coming to stay with my dog in case I have to live at the hospital. At least we have generators there.

EVERYONE IN FLORIDA that’s not evacuating :

Gas in a.m.
flashlight/radio/batteries
Battery charger for cell phone
First aid kit
battery operated fan
Dry dog/cat food
Prescriptions, aleve, aspirin etc.
Ice/cooler/water
bleach
bread, cheese, tuna etc.
fill propane tanks for grill

[Cementjungle]

Passageweather.com indicates winds sustained at 35mph Friday evening

Cool site... thanks for that!

[dirtboy]

Here is the critical set-up - high nosing in from the east, trough coming in from the NW - at what point does the trough break down the high and spring Irma to the north?

[ameribbean expat]

Fire up the Amazon Prime Pantry. Avoid Publix altogether. Gotta love that free delivery on the food and water.

[Innovative]

Hurricane Irma now a Category 4 storm

http://www.wsbtv.com/weather/major-hurricane-irma-expected-to-hit-northern-leeward-islands-by-midweek/602729812

[Rome2000]

Awesome

[janetjanet998]

very cold cloud tops now wrapping around the eye

[dirtboy]

Could be even worse:

Cat 5?

[dirtboy]

132 hour GFS, still takes it into South Florida.