Posted on 08/24/2017 8:44:29 AM PDT by NautiNurse
Potentially catastrophic Hurricane Harvey approaching Texas Gulf Coast.
Mash image to find lots of satellite imagery links
Public Advisories
NHC Discussions
NHC Local Hurricane Statements Corpus Christi
NHC Local Hurricane Statements Galveston
Buoy Data near Harvey
Corpus Christi may catch a bit of a break if the eye comes ashore as far east as Rockport.
The evolution of winds over the city will be something like this in that scenario:
now to 8 p.m. NW 50 to 80 mph
8 p.m. to 3 a.m. NW 60 to 100 mph
3 a.m. to 7 a.m. WNW 50 to 90 mph
7 a.m. to noon (Sat) W 40 to 70 mph
and also rainfalls would probably stay below 12” total in the city (on that track).
It would be Beesville to Victoria to Port Lavaca to Port Aransas box taking the worst of the storm in terms of wind, especially the coastal half of that box. And the heaviest rains look to be setting up around Victoria to Beesville and later will spread west towards San Antonio. Not saying Houston is out of the heavy rainfall bands but in terms of very large amounts, would be expecting that closer to Victoria-Beesville.
Did not make clear that with a Rockport landfall, that area would see winds of 110 to 150 mph from the southeast and very severe damage, also a 10 to 15 foot storm surge. This would back up flooding rivers spreading the water rapidly over large areas inland.
I can't seem to find a land station, oil platform, or buoy reporting hurricane strength winds at all.
Aransas Pass is seeing winds pick up very quickly. In the past ten minutes or so, they went from 60 m.p.h. to 67 m.p.h.
000
WTNT44 KNHC 252055
TCDAT4
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
Despite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey’s winds have
increased during the day. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt
and SFMR winds to 102 kt. Based on these data, Harvey’s maximum
surface winds are estimated to be 110 kt. Harvey’s central pressure
has also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on
dropsonde data is 941 mb.
Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.
Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey’s slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
Three tornado warnings thus far for Galveston Co.
Landfall anticipated around midnight tonight.
Location... 27.5N 96.5W
About 60 Mi...ESE Of Corpus Christi Texas
About 60 Mi...S Of Port OConnor Texas
Maximum Sustained Winds...125 Mph
Present Movement...NW Or 315 Degrees At 10 Mph
Minimum Central Pressure...941 Mb...27.97 Inches
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles from the
center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles.
On/Off Hurricane List Mash Here--> 
Joe Bastardi saying it will come ashore north of Corpus Christi in a fairly low population area.
This is a huge storm.
Corpus Christi is getting hammered!...................
The deluge just started here in Georgetown.
Just saw a report on FNC. If I understood correctly, different officials in Houston have been providing contradictory advice on evacuation???
Remember during Katrina when he was almost decapitated by a large piece of sheet metal? Then he tried to get back inside his shelter building, and they refused to open the door!
Missed that. Any more details?
Barely a light rain, west of Houston.....for now 😳
” Harvey could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.”
FIVE DAYS? Good lord.
.
yes..the big story will be the floods later
TRUMP NEEDS TO ACTIVATE THE MILITARY...
ALL HELO’s that could be used for water rescue(off rooftops) need to be moved to a staging area
I started a thread on here just before Katrina calling Bush to activate the Military ..I won’t do that this time since we have this thread going ....
This is just as serious
TRUMP NEEDS TO DECLARE AN EMERGENCY RIGHT NOW!
CALL THE WHITE HOUSE or he will get blamed doe a slow response like BUSH did with Katrina
Better than forty.
We are staying. I’m pretty sure the entire city will be under water in some form or fashion, but I am praying hard that we won’t. =( http://forums.khou.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=2172&start=1010
One of the best websites out there right now for information.
Trace Gallagher mentioned officials of different departments giving differing advice on evacuation. IIRC, big if, it was LE vs bureaucrats, with some favoring bugging out, others sheltering in place.
Can helos fly rescue in tropical storm/hurricane conditions?
Governor Abbott did something very stupid. He said people in Houston should strongly consider evacuating. Local officials are shooting that advice down. Meanwhile, I'm heading out to Galveston County.
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