000
WTNT44 KNHC 252055
TCDAT4
Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 25 2017
Despite its concentric eyewall structure, Harvey’s winds have
increased during the day. NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter planes have measured maximum flight-level winds of 129 kt
and SFMR winds to 102 kt. Based on these data, Harvey’s maximum
surface winds are estimated to be 110 kt. Harvey’s central pressure
has also continued to fall, and the latest estimate based on
dropsonde data is 941 mb.
Harvey still has not slowed down, and the initial estimate is
325/9 kt. Based on the forecast track, Harvey is expected to make
landfall along the middle Texas coast tonight. After that, the
track models insist that the hurricane will slow down considerably
during the next 24 hours, and it is likely to move very little
between 36 and 120 hours. In fact, there has been a somewhat
notable change in the guidance, with very few of the models showing
Harvey lifting out toward the northeast by the end of the 5-day
forecast period. As a result, the NHC track forecast has been
pulled back a bit and keeps Harvey near or just inland of the Texas
coast through the middle of next week. This slow motion only
exacerbates the heavy rainfall and flooding threat across southern
and southeastern Texas.
Harvey may continue to strengthen during the 6-12 hours it has
before landfall, but regardless it is expected to make landfall at
major hurricane strength. Gradual weakening is anticipated after
the center moves inland, but Harvey’s slow motion will keep a
significant portion of its circulation over water, which may slow
the weakening rate. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast leans
closer to the global model guidance instead of the statistical-
dynamical guidance, which seems to weaken Harvey too fast. Harvey
could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
Joe Bastardi saying it will come ashore north of Corpus Christi in a fairly low population area.
The deluge just started here in Georgetown.
” Harvey could maintain tropical storm strength for the entire 5-day
forecast period due to its proximity to the northwestern Gulf of
Mexico.”
FIVE DAYS? Good lord.
.