Posted on 02/21/2017 11:07:42 PM PST by Ernest_at_the_Beach
Last week, I said that up to a foot of rain could be seen in the Lake Oroville watershed due to a series of “supersoaker storms” coming through. Now, the largest of the storms is bearing down. Dr. Ryan Maue of WeatherBell says there’s going to be an unbelievable “10 trillion gallons” in the next 7 days as more storms come through.
Excessive rainfall on way to California 4 to 10 inches of rain along coast from Santa Cruz north … same for mountains above Oroville. –Dr. Ryan Maue on Twitter
Result in California over next 7-days is widespread heavy rain … 5″+ along coast up to 10-12″ at elevation. All told, 10 Trillion gallons –Dr. Ryan Maue on Twitter
Atmospheric moisture well above normal (150-200%) w/plume to landfall California but look at center of North America (250-400%) spring-like –Dr. Ryan Maue on Twitter
On the one hand I agree that the dam (despite it looking “fragile” in the video I linked to) is not going to fail, assuming that “mountain” (or big hill) is composed of very solid material.
OTOH, from commenter Smith’s comments in your post, I take it that it IS possible to lose up to 30 ft. of emergency spillway “cap” (I suspect that’s the wrong term) plus up to 100 ft. of material below it. Call the resulting discharge 1 million acre-feet of water, plus whatever flows into the lake as the break progresses. We know peak inflow can be up to 200,000 cfs: if we go with 150,000 cfs for 4 days, that’s an additional 1.19 million acre-feet. So, what the heck, make it 2 million acre-feet headed downstream. That compares to 3,537,577 acre-feet for the entire lake. A failure of the emergency spillway is going to be a pretty big deal, mitigated a bit by it almost certainly not happening all at once.
I also question the “solid bedrock” business a bit. Do we KNOW how solid that rock is - even the undisturbed stuff? Someone posted here that a 2nd power plant was never built because the “bedrock” wherever that plant was going to go was too poor.
Finally, commenter Smith also refers to any flood from an emergency spillway failure as being “in line with historic floods”. I assume that does not include 1862...
That doesn’t look good at all. Not one bit. Prudent nearby residents should be looking at vacations, stays with relatives, etc., anywhere away from there.
only 2 more days of his prediction (it was from last week until the 23rd)
Maybe the weight of all that rain will cause the planet to capsize.
20 posted on 2/22/2017, 4:09:53 AM by Palio di Siena
Or maybe it will cause Guam to flip right side up...are you listening Hank Johnson D-GA
The divine is trying to purify California.
It just might work.
Thanks for putting some data perspective on it. This is simply a crisis that was created to push the 1Trillion dollar money printing, stimulus bill.. its for infrastructure ya know. We are all going to die without is, see Orville. I don’t care what initial is after the prez name.. stimulus is a union bailout. NorCal probably got very little of it last time because it is simply a plan to injection millions into democrat territories and buy votes. I’m certain moon bats got and will get the lions share of dollars.
The only way I would be ok with printing it, is if we were to slash 10 trillion in debt.
Isn’t there concern also about the second smaller dam downstream? If that goes the town is lost.
Hey California, how is dismantling much of the flood control system you used to have working for you?
#nofederalfunds.
My dearly departed Dad had a hand building that Oroville dam. Our family was there at then Governor Reagans dedication... I miss them both!
Time to dig a few new lakes!
The word ‘Dam’ is used for both the main barrier and for the totality of all structures that allow for flood control.
It’s worth remembering that dams are about flood control. That is their primary function. Water retention is a distant second.
If either spillway at Oroville were to fail, a hell of a lot of water would run downhill. That would be a classic dam failure, even if the main barrier remained intact.
You seem to be gleeful about this. Are you implying that California is “getting what they deserve “?
The difference now being that the watershed is saturated. No absorption for future rainfall. It all goes to the lake.
Very informative post. Thanks!
National Guard Re-Evacuation of Oroville Dam, General Denies but 8 Inches of Rain Falling (316)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WDylWEyAtHA
LOLOL!!!
That would be a funny one to put in the head of a liberal.
They’d believe it, too.
They must think there could be a problem, because they have called up some of the National Guard and have the rest on emergency standby. The fact that they have done that plus created a no fly zone, tells me they are very worried.
Heavy thoughts indeed.
Opinion: What if California’s drought is permanent?
Will any of this water be usable for cleaning out that cesspool known as the Salton Sea?
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