2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted) Totals day before the Election 2012
Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000
Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes
2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 46,235
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 34,510
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 11,725
AP “In Florida, a perennial battleground, Democrats have drawn even to Republicans in votes cast, reaching that milestone faster than in 2012. Traditionally, Republicans do well initially with mail-in ballots. But Democrats were able to keep it close, putting Clinton in position to run up the score during in-person voting.”
Great news and thanks for putting this together every day.
It would be nice to see a wider picture of how he is doing in other states, I read things weren’t looking good in Colorado, but good in Ohio, is this true?
With nearly half of the absentee ballots returned, we may go past 80% returned. Also, the REPs lead by 2.9% in returned ballots (42.1% to 39.2%). That margin keeps increasing. It could hit 4%.
So new assumptions. Lets assume about 85% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 4%, say 42.5% to 38.5% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,255,856 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,767,477 total returned (3,255,856 * 0.85)
1,176,177 - REP 43% (2,767,477 * 0.425)
1,065,478 - DEM 40% (2,767,477 * 0.385)
110,699 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS
Where is the independent vote?
And how many dems will crossover to vote Trump?
I’ll be sucking my thumb and clutching my security blanket in my ‘Safe Room’ until the full results are in.
Knock on the door when a Trump victory is announced.
If hillary wins, just cover the whole place with cement and leave.
The expectation is for HRC to take a lead in all forms of early voting before election day. She doesn’t have that lead yet. Do we have any idea what the breakdown was on this same day in 2012?
It’s unfortunate that whatever dopey Millenial who writes this stuff does not understand that a dash in front of a number indicates a negative number.
All theses numbers, 2012 or 2016. It’s VERY confusing!
What’s the bottom line?
(Notes go at the end of the book for those interested).
Democrats trending down in in-person votes. They were at 49% of in-person early votes in 2012 I believe. I call FL for Trump.
FL in-person early votes, cumulative day 1:
Democrats - 133K/45.7%, Republicans - 109K/37.4%, Other - 49K/16.8%
FL in-person early votes, cumulative day 2:
Democrats - 257K/43.9%, Republicans - 226K/38.6%, Other - 103K/17.6%
FL in-person early votes, cumulative day 3:
Democrats - 370K/42.9%, Republicans - 336K/39.0%, Other - 156K/18.1%
Here’s the info on the NFU poll today:
https://www.unf.edu/coas/porl/October_27,_2016_-_Poll_of_Likely_Voters_Shows_that_Hillary_Clinton,_Marco_Rubio_Amendment_2_hold_onto_leads_in_Florida.aspx
“Likely voters were considered people who had voted in a statewide election between November 2008 and March 2016 or were too young to vote in 2014 but are now eligible. “
I pinged you yesterday that several GOP counties in Florida haven’t started early voting. They will start Saturday. Keep an eye on Sundays total.
Very interesting thanks for posting.
Nobody ever calculates for how many Dems are voting Trump. I live in Florida and can tell you the Dem Trump vote is significant. Not to mention the Unaffiliateds for Trump. (Sometimes called “independents.”)
