Posted on 10/27/2016 6:39:45 AM PDT by SpeedyInTexas
Here are the RETURNED Florida Absentee Ballot numbers for 2016 (REPs led in this category by 79,000 in 2012). Approximately 49.4% of Absentee Ballots have been returned at this point.
53.0% of REP ballots, have been returned and 49.2% of DEM ballots have been returned.
10/27/16: REPs - 677,907, DEMs - 631,672 lead of 46,235 for REPs, 42.1% to 39.2%
10/26/16: REPs - 606,144, DEMs - 569,783 lead of 36,361 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.5%
10/25/16: REPs - 556,058, DEMs - 525,076 lead of 30,982 for REPs, 42.0% to 39.7%
10/24/16: REPs - 503,632, DEMs - 483,019 lead of 20,613 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%
10/23/16: REPs - 496,040, DEMs - 476,292 lead of 19,748 for REPs, 41.7% to 40.0%
For Hillsborough [battleground/swing county] (DEMs had a lead of 20,000 in 2012 early voting - that's absentee ballots plus in-person early voting):
10/27/16: REPs - 62,341, DEMs - 73,711, lead of 11,370 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
10/26/16: REPs - 52,634, DEMs - 62,884, lead of 10,250 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
10/25/16: REPs - 41,660, DEMs - 50,050, lead of 8,390 for DEMs <== Now reflects absentee + in-person early voting
10/24/16: REPs - 33,400, DEMs - 38,935, lead of 5,535 for DEMs
10/23/16: REPs - 31,163, DEMs - 36,362, lead of 5,199 for DEMs
2012 (ballots cast, not yet counted) Totals day before the Election 2012
Absentee Ballot - REPs led by 79,000
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs led by 247,000
Combined Early voting - DEMs led by 168,000
Obama won Florida in 2012 by 74,000 votes
2016 (ballots cast, not yet counted)
Absentee Ballot - REPs lead by 46,235
In-Person Early Voting - DEMs lead by 34,510
Combined Early voting - REPs lead by 11,725
AP “In Florida, a perennial battleground, Democrats have drawn even to Republicans in votes cast, reaching that milestone faster than in 2012. Traditionally, Republicans do well initially with mail-in ballots. But Democrats were able to keep it close, putting Clinton in position to run up the score during in-person voting.”
Great news and thanks for putting this together every day.
It would be nice to see a wider picture of how he is doing in other states, I read things weren’t looking good in Colorado, but good in Ohio, is this true?
With nearly half of the absentee ballots returned, we may go past 80% returned. Also, the REPs lead by 2.9% in returned ballots (42.1% to 39.2%). That margin keeps increasing. It could hit 4%.
So new assumptions. Lets assume about 85% of absentee ballots are returned and assume REP lead by 4%, say 42.5% to 38.5% with the rest Independents/Other.
3,255,856 total absentee ballots mailed as of today
2,767,477 total returned (3,255,856 * 0.85)
1,176,177 - REP 43% (2,767,477 * 0.425)
1,065,478 - DEM 40% (2,767,477 * 0.385)
110,699 REP Lead Predicted in ABSENTEE BALLOTS
Where is the independent vote?
And how many dems will crossover to vote Trump?
I’ll be sucking my thumb and clutching my security blanket in my ‘Safe Room’ until the full results are in.
Knock on the door when a Trump victory is announced.
If hillary wins, just cover the whole place with cement and leave.
The expectation is for HRC to take a lead in all forms of early voting before election day. She doesn’t have that lead yet. Do we have any idea what the breakdown was on this same day in 2012?
DEMs lead registration in Florida by 300,000. They should easily pass REPs in cast ballots. They probably still will. Quite shocked, they haven’t done so with 3 days of in-person early voting. Shows an enthusiasm gap. They aren’t into Hillary.
Does anyone know if the absentee ballots require postage to be mailed? If so, some DEMs may not spend the 50 cents for a stamp to vote for her!!!
It’s unfortunate that whatever dopey Millenial who writes this stuff does not understand that a dash in front of a number indicates a negative number.
Run it up? Latest in-person voting poll had Trump up 50-36. Clowns
Lets see if DEMs beat their 2012 combined lead of 168,000 by election day. I’m guessing they don’t.
Remember, REPs win on election day. DEMs need to run up the score with in-person voting. We will know soon enough.
Polls show Trump winning independents by a larger margin than Romney won in Florida. Romney won indys by 5%. Trump will likely do closer to 10%.
That is hard to do. 2012 had 8 days of in-person voting. We have 14 days this year.
Where did you see this?
I know ours in AZ do not requite a stamp but signature, yes.
REPs looking good in Iowa, Ohio, NC and Florida.
DEMs lead in returned ballots in Colorado, but it is still early. Independents in CO will decide the election their. Trump leads with indys in most polls.
Lets see if DEMs beat their 2012 combined lead of 168,000 by election day. I’m guessing they don’t.
Remember, REPs win on election day. DEMs need to run up the score with in-person voting. We will know soon enough.
Polls show Trump winning independents by a larger margin than Romney won in Florida. Romney won indys by 5%. Trump will likely do closer to 10%.
If hillary wins, just cover the whole place with cement and leave.
With Donald Trump, we finally had someone who put all our cards on the table. If he's rejected, at least we'll know where we stand.
I read the 50-36 numbers from some poll. But not in-person voting. I thought it was for people who planned to vote on election day.
So far, and this is corroborated by North Carolina, the Obama coalition of high turnout among minorities and younger voters is not materializing for Hillary.
In Florida, Republicans are maintaining a slight lead in total ballots cast (by mail plus in-person). Dems had a 170,000 vote lead in the combined early vote heading into election day.
We will have to keep monitoring to see if the Dems can get close to this number. If the Republicans maintain parity, Trump is most likely to win Florida.
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