Posted on 10/26/2016 12:21:27 PM PDT by 11th_VA
A few weeks ago the Stockton Polling Institute issued a statewide poll that showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in New Jersey by six points. And that was before the final two presidential debates and the release of the controversial “Access Hollywood” video that showed Trump years ago bragging about sexually assaulting women and the subsequent stream of women claiming he had done that to them.
Maybe the Democrats are in good shape in New Jersey as a whole. But the GOP is holding its own in South Jersey, according to a new poll released by the Stockton Polling Institute on Tuesday.
Between Oct. 19 and Oct. 23, the SPI interviewed 625 likely voters from the 2nd Congressional District, which includes all of Atlantic, Cape May, Cumberland and Salem counties and parts of Burlington, Camden, Gloucester and Ocean counties, including all of Southern Ocean County except Barnegat Township and the western part of Stafford Township. Trump leads Clinton 45 to 42 percent, while 4 percent of the polled voters supported Libertarian Gary Johnson, 1 percent gave the nod to the Green Party’s Jill Stein, 3 percent said they weren’t supporting any of the four candidates, and another 3 percent said they were still undecided. Trump’s lead was within the poll’s plus-or-minus 3.9 percent margin of error.
Rush said today Little Marco is 10 points ahead in Florida.
Bro, you ever been to NJ?
The north has mountains of blacks and liberals.
Not to be a downer but...the south part?
There’s nothing here.
NJ is winnable.
There is a pattern here—in Iowa the latest poll showed Trump leading by ten—but the key takeaway was the large sample—about 600.
Here again we see a large sample (as a percentage of voters).
The national and large state polls have small samples compared to the totals—and along with about a 5% response rate—which gives the pollsters with an axe to grind easy pickings to add special sauce to “adjust” the results.
Large sample size compared to total voters—look for it—those will be much stronger indicators of how this is going to go.
I think I paid $40 in tolls to take my kids to Six Flags once, other than that .... no
I’ve been there, Debbie Downer. Can’t say I enjoyed it. Actually there have always been a lot of blue-collar Reagan Democrat types in New Jersey. I think the Trumpocrat vote is being very seriously underestimated this cycle nationwide.
This is not news. I live in South Jersey and it always goes republican. However it is not enough to counter what the North Jersey liberals do. It is only news if north jersey goes for trump. Northern NJ and southern NJ are like two different states.
LOL!
The last time I drove up north, the thing I noticed was, everybody obeyed the speed limit on the NJ turnpike.
Smart move :)
I’m 20 minutes from north and 35 from the beginning of south.
South is white middle class except for asbury park and a few other areas that have been ruined.
But a lot of middle class idiots because a republican in this area should be up 60 to 40.
The north is crushingly black and Hispanic and liberal.
I BELIEVE Trump will win!! I dont see him winning NJ
But if fatso could (I should talk) then anything’s possible :)
Why limit a poll to one section of a state?
SoJersey is more rural, I see Trump signs everywhere. But, I’ve lived all over the state and central and north are strongly Dem. It’ll be a miracle for Trump to get NJ.
Debbie Downer? I would have felt better if you called me a son of a ##### :)
I have THREE Sisters in NJ and five cousins that I visit and I’ve had part of my vending route in NJ when I was younger and I know NJ really well.
Let’s focus on PA and CO, not nonsense.
Unfortunately, that won’t offset the nest of corrupt Democrat lunatics north of I-80...
Morris County, Sussex County, Hunterdon County, Somerset COunty and Warren County are solid Republican. The problems are Hudson, Essex, Middlesex, Bergen, Passaic, Camden, Mercer, Monmouth, Burlington and Atlantic Counties.
Besides large minority populations which traditionally vote Democrat - although Trump may have made some inroads among them - there are large numbers of New York Metropolitan emigrees and refugees, most of whom are Democrat, fleeing the mess they made there and infecting parts of Jersey and even eastern Pennsylvania.
Northwest, where I am, is mainly Republican.
Yeah. NJ is not in the cards this year. Newark and JC pretty much ensure that. Thing is, years ago Bergen County was a reliable conservative county which gave Republicans a shot to be competitive, but even this has been overrun with Democrats and other sordid characters.
South NJ, Like Pennasucken (sp?) is really Philly suburb
When?
The speed limit on the turnpike is 90
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.