[Vanity] Trump’s numbers off 1.3 in Dornsife La Times poll; this could be the “Bradley Effect”

Vanity | October 12, 2016 | Kevin "Coach" Collins

[jmaroneps37]

Donald Trump has lost his lead in the Dornsife La Times. He is now down .4% after a big fall.

What is the cause? “Let’s go to the video tape!” as a New York area sports reporter used to say.

This is day four of Dornsife’s seven day roiling poll and was to be expected. The Trump tape took effect yesterday and will be WORSE tomorrow. When the results of the second debate and the new email drops take hold tomorrow and Friday there should be an improvement.

There may also be some "Bradley effect" here as well. The "Wilder Factor" is a phenomena in polling where people will tell pollsters something other than what they really think because they are embarrassed to say the truth even to a complete stranger.

Some years ago in the Tom Bradley case he was winning in pre-election polls in the California governor’s race but lost. It turned out that people SAID they would vote for him indicating that Bradley being Black made no difference; but it did.

So it is possible that some voters, especially women, told Dornsife they were against Trump because they think that is how they are supposed to think.

The Bradley effect was also seen in every ballot question on the issue of “Gay Marriage.” Before the actual vote, there were very few polls that that showed “Gay Marriage” had no chance of passing. In fact some – not many- but some showed a within the margin of error tie between Yes or No. Nevertheless, with one exception, not a single one prevailed.

“In the 1989 race for Mayor of New York, a poll conducted just over a week before the election showed black candidate David Dinkins holding an 18-point lead over white candidate Rudy Giuliani. [Dinkins was running to be the first Black mayor of New York City]. Four days before the election, a new poll showed that lead to have shrunk, but still standing at 14 points. On the day of the election, Dinkins prevailed by only two points.”

Don’t panic over this slippage because it has a definite identifiable cause.

http://cesrusc.org/election/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bradley_effect

[jmaroneps37]

This is still Trump's race. He has all the enthusiasm with him not her. She draws flies to her gatherings and he brings in 10,000 people at a clip.

[AU72]

I recall Trumps worst numbers on this poll were mid-week, doing better on the weekend.

If by Sunday there is no improvement, I would become 'concerned'.

[Nifster]

More important now than ever

Ignore all media

Get Out The Vote

[lodi90]

No it’s not. Trump needs to get the GOP back onside. Or he will lose. That’s why he went after Ryan. No candidate can beat his own party, a billion dollar Dem campaign and corrupt media.

[babble-on]

Yes, everyone is very enthusiastic about Donald Trump!

[Mjreagan]

Warner Wolf!

[Lady Heron]

Basically this is a corrupt media spewing 100% propaganda and disenfranchising Americans.

The amazing story is it is only 4%.

[Lady Heron]

Basically this is a corrupt media spewing 100% propaganda and disenfranchising Americans.

The amazing story is it is only 4%.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Not 4%. 0.4%. In this poll.

[usafa92]

I agree with Trump’s strategy of attacking the GOP quislings as well as Hillary. My concern was that he did it too late. I see both sides of this. Don’t anger a portion of the party (and there are many GOPers in everyday life who love the Romneys and Ryan’s of the world) or attack them scorched earth. I think Trump’s greatest strength through this whole race has been his outsider status and an argument could have been made to run against both parties early on. Trump tried to play nice but they ended up knifing him anyways. It’s not in his nature to hold back.

I think at the end of the day he goes both barrels blazing on the GOPe and Hillary and hope that energizes his base enough that someone is fighting the quislings and Hillary while pulling enough Independents to win.

[Snowybear]

I’ve pretty much given up hope. I’ll vote on 11/8. In the meantime I am going to prepare for the end of the country I know and love. I’m going to take measures to protect my home, my family and my weapons and continue to take steps to get off the grid as much as possible with the limited means I currently have.

I pray for my son’s future. I only hope I die soon enough so I don’t have to see this play out.

That’s where I’m at.

[bray]

Surprised he is not down more.

Pray America wakes

[FlipWilson]

It’s not the Bradley effect. He had about as bad a 72 hour period as one can have, punctuated by a fantastic debate. His campaign has done very well in surviving the maelstrom but has work to do.

[Sans-Culotte]

The Bradley Effect is an urban legend. The only time it happened was when Bradley was running.

[Paradox]

He had a bad weekend, thats the bottom line, that sex talk tape was very bad for him. Not because many people truly care, but 1-2% did, and its reflected in the polls. He can rebound from this, no problem. We shall see what other amminition the Democrats, I mean the “Republicans” can throw at him.

[Liz]

"Bradley effect" is a phenomena in polling where people will tell pollsters something other than what they really think ......

Reminds me of the "Hollywood effect."

Fanled movie director Cecil DeMille was a lifelong conservative and Republican activist.

In 1944, he was the master of ceremonies at the massive rally organized by David O. Selznick in the Los Angeles Coliseum in support of the Dewey-Bricker ticket as well as Governor Earl Warren of California, who would become Dewey's running mate in 1948 and later the Chief Justice of the United States.

The gathering drew 93,000, with short speeches by conservatives Hedda Hopper and Walt Disney. Among those in attendance were conservatives Ann Sothern, Ginger Rogers, Randolph Scott, Adolphe Menjou, Gary Cooper, and Walter Pidgeon.

Though the rally drew a good response, most Hollywood celebrities who took a public position sided with the Roosevelt-Truman ticket.(hat tip WIKI)

[lodi90]

It’s not the Bradley effect. He had about as bad a 72 hour period as one can have, punctuated by a fantastic debate.

---

Followed by the highest ranked elected Republican stabbing Trump in the back first thing monday morning. Ryan totally destroyed Trump’s debate bounce. Treason. Nothing less.

[KC_Conspirator]

I would not count on any excuses for the Bradley effect or whatever. Last weekends stupid kerfuffle over nothing did hurt - make no excuses about it. The media also ignored her losing badly at the last debate. Got 4 weeks to go to get back on top.

[BRL]

Trump needs to crystalize his final message and run it until the election. I think he should go after transparency in the banking sector and financial ties between wall street and dc. This will be common ground between trump supporters and bernie supporters.

[Mr. K]

Boy you’re a real motivator, aren’t you...