If we make an adjustment to comply with more reasonable allocation of party affiliation, will we nevertheless see a trend?
Posted on 09/29/2016 8:13:12 AM PDT by ChicagoConservative27
Voters in five battleground states declared Hillary Clinton the winner of this week’s debate against Donald Trump, boosting her fortunes in those key races, a new poll showed Thursday.
A majority of voters in Colorado, Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Virginia all told Public Policy Polling that Clinton got the better of Trump in their first showdown.
The Public Policy poll was taken Tuesday and Wednesday, giving voters at least one night to digest Monday’s slugfest at Hofstra University.
Clinton’s debate also helped her bounce to leads in all five states, according to the poll.
In four-way races that include the Libertarian and Green Party candidates, Clinton led Trump in Virginia and Colorado by identical margins of 46 to 40 percent.
She was also ahead in Pennsylvania (45 to 39 percent), Florida (45 to 43 percent) and North Carolina (44 to 42 percent)
(Excerpt) Read more at nypost.com ...
I think polls are supposed to oversample Dems since there are more registered Dems. Not sure of the correct oversample spread however.
Regardless, hope Trump gets his stuff together for the next round.
He needs to have down cold at least three or four smooth, aggressive, complete with bullet points, three-minute takedowns of Hillary on classified emails, on getting rich through influence peddling (foundation, speeches) vs building things, on her trail of failure as Secstate, and on her wish for open borders and consequently more Orlandos, San Bernardinos, etc.
Not another night of half-strength ad-hoc counterattacks.
The woman is a walking library of scandals and failure. She is unworthy of further public trust. Paint her as such!
/keyboardRant
Amen. Regardless of what she was doing or saying, he had plenty of ammunition going into the debate. He didn’t use it and it’s not because he was cleverly saving it, it was that he did not have even a remote plan of his own and if he did, he forgot it.
I heard Rush say a short while ago, that Trump “owes it to his supporters” to do better in the Debates. To which I say: “Yes, he does.” If he doesn’t, I’m afraid that his “frustrated” supporters just might stay home on Election Day.
Remember: Reagan “lost” the first Debate in ‘84, Obama lost the first Debate in ‘12 and they both won by large margins.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/elections/
Take a look. Notice they specially identify this poll as a D (Democrat) poll? Not all polls are created equally. Some require larger grains of salt then others
He didn’t do as well as we all wish he had done, however, it is his first real debate and Hillary has done a lot of them.
Remember, that when Donald first started running, he was not as polished as we wanted. He learned pretty quickly what to do and what not to do. I have no doubt that he is a quick study and will win the next debate. He also has not hit her with all the big stuff and I’m sure he will in the next debate.
And here comes the BS Express, right on schedule.
PPP is a orchestrated hoax
not a real polling firm.
In 2014 elrvtion cycle,
this Dem grifters wildly purposely oversampled Dems abd there
results were a joke.
read all about it
http://thefederalist.com/2014/11/19/polling-postmortem-the-best-and-worst-senate-polls-of-2014/
But the Murdoch scum have there NY Post rag peddle the poll lie of the day without questioning .
Trump had lots of primary debates. He did pretty much what he did on Monday night during those events. One or two line jabs, repetition about bad trade deals, the occasional zinger etc. It was never amazingly good, but it was good enough in a crowded field of not-so-exciting opponents.
Unfortunately, he apparently thought that approach would be good enough for a one-on-one in his first general election debate, the most important debate of his life.
Rasmussen is no longer in the polling business.
His company is now run by liberal pollsters who use his name by license.
Their bias is evident.
Concern trolls say Trump goofed.
To put it differently, this was to be expected.
Its the MSM after all. Some polls show Trump ahead and some show him behind.
Its worth pointing out here Mitt Romney NEVER led in any mainstream poll after Labor Day.
Trump has been up in a couple of polls.
And yes, several of them are way off because they use 2012 turnout as a baseline and turnout this year will NOT be D +6.
Relax.
2012 Breakdown:
M 47%
F 53%
D 38%
R 32%
I 29%
White 72%
Black 13%
Hispanic 10%
Asian 3%
Saying she won the debate is not the same as saying she is “beating” Trump. Bad headline.
Do the polling organizations adjust their results to reflect over/undersampling? It seems like the obvious thing they would have to do to make the statistics worth anything.
His advantage is that he is NOT a politician, he is a businessman. His calling cards must be success and preparation. He utterly failed in preparation. I still absolutely support his candidacy, but the only way he can convince folks who still need convincing, is to be completely prepared and un-fluster-able. He was not.
What make you think this election will be anything like 2012?
If we make an adjustment to comply with more reasonable allocation of party affiliation, will we nevertheless see a trend?
If we had copied it down we could do it. Or if it were still on their site.
We really should keep these things someplace, but it would be significant work.
Saying Hillary won the debate and voting for her are 2 different things.
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