Posted on 09/24/2016 6:56:34 PM PDT by SoFloFreeper
On the eve of the first presidential debate, a new Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll shows a narrow gap between Democrat Hillary Clinton and Republican Donald Trump amid rising support for Trump within his own party....
In a four-way matchup, Clinton leads by 2 points, at 40 percent to Trump's 38 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson dropped to 8 percent — down from 14 percent a week ago — and Green Party nominee Jill Stein went from 5 to 3 percent.
(Excerpt) Read more at mcall.com ...
Margin of error 5 points.
Breakdown: 47% Democrats 39% Republican 10% Independent 3% other party
49% Male 51% Female
Trump is getting 9% of Democrats Hitlery is getting 5% of Republicans
other internals here: https://assets.documentcloud.org/documents/3113757/2016-Muhlenberg-College-Morning-Call-late.pdf
Goooooooooooooo Trump!!!!!
She’s only up 2 with a D+8 sample??(
What turnout did Obama get in PA? Was it D+8 too? No way Hillary will get the same as that!
Trump will win PA.
I don’t think there’s any question about it.
Only guess is by what margin he will win.
Crazy. Johnson drops 6 points and Stein 2. In one week.
Not sure how much weight I want to give this one.
Wow; big poll on the eve of the debate.
Hillary will get far less and she is shedding more Ds than Trump is losing Rs.
Its a must-win state for her and she’s down.
Come election day, Johnson’s and Stein’s support will disappear, as is already starting to show. Voters know there are really only two viable choices and 11/8/16 will not be a date to cast a “statement” vote.
People are not going to throw away their vote on a third party candidate.
People parked their votes with them to see how things were going.
Most of them will go for Trump and the rest will stay home.
This was expected.
This and the fact that republicans are ahead in the early voting numbers in Florida is great news!
Obama won Pennsylvania by 10.3% over McVain and only 5.4% over Romney, so I think Dem +8 with an unmotivated Dem electorate due to their terrible candidate is probable at least +4 too high.
In other words, Trump is now leading PA!
Of course there is a question about it; no Republican has carried PA since '88. This poll is very good news. GW Bush polled this close to Gore in 2000 but ended up losing by 4.
If we win PA then we don’t have to worry about VA =)
Now THAT is what you call common core math..D+8 and Trump is down by 2..it means Trump is up by at least 5
One other internal for the poll: Whites 81%, Blacks 10%
pretty close to actual numbers. According to the census bureau, whites are 82.6% of Pennsylvania, blacks are 11.7%.
Hillary is nowhere near attractive as Gore and even Lurch.
For some reason, Democrats hate her.
Remember, back during the primaries, half of Democrats wanted someone else to be their nominee.
When half of your party doesn’t like you, its difficult to build momentum.
Plus they only polled 10% independents, which is insane imo. I know PA doesn’t have a humongous indie vote like some other states, but 10 is clearly too low.
Small sample, but welcome new nonetheless.
Polls aside, I truly believe that Trump takes Pennsylvania. His win in the primary there was epic. Outperformed the polls then, and will in the general election. He won’t win every county this time, but I expect his rural numbers to be overwhelming. Plenty of 70-25 counties I suspect.
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