LA Times/Dormslife Tracking Poll (Trump 45.0 Clinton 42.4)

LA Times ^ | 9/4/2016 | Admins Emomdjomeh and David Lauter

[Radio Free Tuscaloosa]

The USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times "Daybreak" poll tracks about 3,000 eligible voters until election day, asking on a regular basis about their support for Hillary Clinton, Donald Trump or other candidates as well as their likelihood of actually casting a ballot. We update the data each day based on the weighted average of poll responses over the previous week. That means results have less volatility than some other polls, but also means the poll lags somewhat in responding to major events in the campaign. More about the poll and why it differs from others.

[Radio Free Tuscaloosa]

A slight down tick from yesterday; most likely statistical noise.

[WashingtonSource]

Still holding up!

[BlueStateRightist]

This poll is more valuable if you only look at it in 7 day increments. Day to day changes are noise. From this perspective start evaluating the poll from Aug 26 onward and you get a sense of what the race is doing over the past week.

[KavMan]

How the hell can TRUMP lose?

Too many good things happening to TRUMP!

Zip App maker says TRUMP will win when TRUMP was polling like 10 points down

Cafe Press says TRUMP is outselling Hillary & they are like 4 for 4 for past Elections

Helmut Norpoth says TRUMP will win & he is very very credible! Since 1912 since Primaries started his Primary model has only been wrong ONCE in 1960 when Kennedy beat Nixon but don’t people say the mob stole it for Kennedy?

Donald Trump will defeat Hillary Clinton 52.5% to 47.5% in the popular vote and the probability is down to 87% from 97% predicts Professor Helmut Norpoth

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/helmut-norpoth/trump-nearcertain-to-defe_b_9403762.html

[Molon Labbie]

I don’t think he can as long as he keeps doing what he is doing.

What is it that Hillary can do to win? Every day is bad news about her, she looks like she is dying, she will just continue to slide in the polls.

And we have yet to have a debate yet...

[InterceptPoint]

I believe that the best way to use the USC/Dornslife poll is for getting some idea about the general Trump vs Hillary trend.

One way to do this is to take the basic polling data which runs from early July to the the present and make Moving Average Calculations on that data. This basically applies a low pass filter to the data. It gets rid of the "noise" in the polling data. The downside is that it will lag the real time data.

So here are my plots of the "Trump Margin" for the full data set in blue and the 7 Day (Gray) and 14 Day (Orange) Moving Averages. What this shows is that Trump has mostly led in the race. He took a big jump up during the GOP convention but took a big downturn during and for some time after the Dem Convention. But the trend has been very definitely up for Trump since about mid-July to the present.

Take a look:

[Eric Pode of Croydon]

How long has this poll been around, and what is their track record of successful predictions??

[GrandJediMasterYoda]

How can he lose? It’s called ELECTION FRAUD! Don’t forget: Trump isn’t running against a politician - He is running against a career criminal and multiple felon who was just defended from prosecution by a criminal Islamic regime which just put the elections under the “watch” of Homeland security. That’s why I’ve been saying for a while now, although it is great that Trump is polling a few points ahead, what he really needs to be at is 10 or 20 points ahead of the felon because WHEN the election fraud happens, it will be obvious as hell to people “How could he be 20 points ahead of Hillary in the polls and still lose?” If public protest is enough it may be get the election re-examined or re-counted.

[KavMan]

Election fraud can happen by 1% to 2% Vote dufferance

Don’t think it will matter if TRUMP wins by like 10% like that Professor has forcasted

[Sooth2222]

"For fun" we can compare the 2016 pattern with 2012.

In 2012, after the Republican convention, with lots of balloons and smiling Republicans promising everything for everyone, Romney took the lead. Then, after the Democrat convention, with lots of balloons and smiling Democrats promising everything for everyone, Obama took the lead. But, unlike Gallup (which in retrospect I believe skewed the poll averages badly), Romney never regained the lead. The final poll had Obama up by 2.6%, he actually won by 3.9%. I'd rather see Trump up by 10% now. But given the choice, I'd rather see Trump up 2.6% now than down by 10% now.

http://graphics.latimes.com/usc-presidential-poll-dashboard/

https://alpdata.rand.org/?page=election2012

[InterceptPoint]

They did well in 2012 I believe. I just like their methodology.

[catnipman]

“Too many good things happening to TRUMP!”

and too many BAD things happening to Crooked Hillary!

[Don Hernando de Las Casas]

I have never heard of this poll, but I take it that it is good? Reliable? Has it been around for awhile?

[TexasCruzin]

The professor says Trump wins by 5 not by 10.

[daler]

You mean those debates where the MSM have already crafted their “you’re picking on a girl!” narratives?

[edie1960]

Today’s People’s Pundit Tracker has Trump with his largest lead yet.
Trump @ 41.9% to Hildabeast @ 39.2 (first time she’s dipped below 40)
Ergo Trump up 2.7%
Hard to find updates on the UPI tracker on weekends. It has contradicted the other two lately, showing her up.

[dp0622]

What about all this #### about hillary that just came out. Should have been one day included today and I thought it would make a bit of a difference.

I guess majority will find out about it on news shows after labor day holiday.

[enumerated]

I think the poll data you’re starting with is already a 7 day moving average, so if you do a moving average of that, I’m not sure what you would call it!

Anyway, I get your drift, it’s useful to get rid of some of the noise.

The poll seems to have echoes like ripples like in a pond. If Trump has a real good day, then 7 days later the poll looks like he had a bad day, because the good day just dropped out of the average.

[InterceptPoint]

I think the poll data you’re starting with is already a 7 day moving average, so if you do a moving average of that, I’m not sure what you would call it!
++++
That is correct. By its nature the USC Poll is a 7 Day Moving Average Poll of the 1/7th of the Polled Population that it polls each day.

So yes, I’m calculating 7 and 14 Day Moving Averages of a 7 Day Moving Average. The Freeper Mathematicians may wince but I like it.

[af_vet_1981]

The problem with those numbers (52.5 - 47.5) is they equal 100. Trump still has not taken his numbers among Republican voters into the 90s, nor compensated sufficiently with known Democrats. While there are an unknown amount of new voters, I agree with his new strategy. Visit every major city, make the genuine case how Deoncrats have not served their aspirations, tell them what he intends to do that improves the future for their families, and give them the courtesy and dignity of asking for their vote. Repeat until Election Day, while visiting all the battleground states over and over. High Energy