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Pollster Oversample Chart
BigEdLB ^ | 8/13/16 | BigEdLB

Posted on 08/14/2016 2:07:27 PM PDT by BigEdLB

Here is my analysis of oversampling during polling vs Gallups analysis of that actual party ID in a state is.



TOPICS: Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2016polls; deceit; fraud; oversample; polling; polls
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With the mysterious disappearance of longroom, someone has to keep up the analysis. I should call it, "Under Hillary's Radar", yet electronic radiation in radar might invoke another epileptic fit. Note: Hillary's health is being openly discussed on Russian Social Media...
1 posted on 08/14/2016 2:07:27 PM PDT by BigEdLB
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To: BigEdLB

So what does this mean to the current Trump v. Clinton polling.


2 posted on 08/14/2016 2:10:06 PM PDT by GilGil
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To: LS; NIKK; Jane Long; LucyT; WildHighlander57

FYI


3 posted on 08/14/2016 2:11:51 PM PDT by hoosiermama (Trump makes me smile!)
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To: BigEdLB

Interesting...
Bkmk


4 posted on 08/14/2016 2:14:03 PM PDT by Verbosus (/* No Comment */)
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To: BigEdLB
I'm sorry. Can you describe what we're looking at here?
I'm not following
5 posted on 08/14/2016 2:14:08 PM PDT by Steve Van Doorn (*in my best Eric Cartman voice* 'I love you, guys')
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To: BigEdLB

Political party voter registration varies from state to state and somewhere between 7 and 10 percent of registered Republicans will be Clinton voters (RINOs) and registered Democrats will be Trump voters (DINOs).


6 posted on 08/14/2016 2:14:33 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
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To: BigEdLB

Check out this live ABC poll, no over sampling here. Trump is kicking her A**:
http://abcnewsgo.co/2016/08/abc-live-poll-who-are-you-voting-for/


7 posted on 08/14/2016 2:14:38 PM PDT by foundedonpurpose (Is the rule of law dead? We will soon know! Hillary for prision.....)
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To: BigEdLB

What have the Russians read in her emails that we should know about Hillary’s health?


8 posted on 08/14/2016 2:15:53 PM PDT by txrefugee (..)
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To: BigEdLB

Oversample compared to ‘what’ please.
Census, turnout, exit polling... ?


9 posted on 08/14/2016 2:16:17 PM PDT by mrsmith (Dumb sluts: Lifeblood of the Media, Backbone of the Democrat/RINO Party!)
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To: Steve Van Doorn

I *believe* it to be the percentage more democrats than conservatives in the polling sample.


10 posted on 08/14/2016 2:17:24 PM PDT by Verbosus (/* No Comment */)
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To: GilGil

These are the oversample values for the most recent poll for a pollster in a state. Look at Florida (FL) a poll from PPP oversampled Dems 4.5 vs what Gallup said it should be. Yougov (Today BTW) 4.0, Quinnipiac 7.5, etc... Yougov today had Hillary +5, but with a dem oversample of 4.0, the outcome depends on the indepenndents because between D and R it is a dead heat. Hillary is +1 over Dem party ID difference. It is also dependent on turnout D vs R. It isn’t going to be D+6 like it was in 2012.


11 posted on 08/14/2016 2:18:22 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: BigEdLB
I seem to remember for PA, 80 to 100,000 Dems switched to Repubs so they could vote for Trump.

What data did the pollsters use to determine the number os registered voters for each party? Did they use last election numbers? or current numbers?

I assume that for many states, switching occurred, more Dem to Repub, than Repub to Dem.

Did your analysis count for this?

12 posted on 08/14/2016 2:18:37 PM PDT by FroggyTheGremlim (Make America Great Again!)
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To: txrefugee

There is a youtbe video in English with Russian subtitles which shows coughing and epileptic headbobbing on oklasskani (sp) social network.


13 posted on 08/14/2016 2:20:25 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: BigEdLB

One thing was pointed out to me, a political non-expert, that I found somewhat interesting.

Take a state like CA (well, maybe there is no such state)

Nobody believes for a minute that HRC will not win CA and all of its 55 EVs. But when it comes to polling individuals which is the thing that is done to generate the poll numbers we hear of, giant numbers of those individual votes are wasted. Once a candidate achieves enough votes to win a district, county, state, any additional votes do not amplify nor enhance his/her numbers. It wouldn’t matter if HRC got every single vote in CA, and so, she could poll now today with a massive lead and win no more EVs than she would if only 51% voted for her/it. While there is of course nothing world-shaking nor new about this observation, it’s my thinking that we’re going to see a lot of this in the electoral count.


14 posted on 08/14/2016 2:20:51 PM PDT by Attention Surplus Disorder (I had a cool idea for a new tagline and I forgot it!)
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To: eCSMaster

I used not registration numbrts, but self ID of party which is different and more an accurate gauge of how people ID themselves.


15 posted on 08/14/2016 2:21:29 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: BigEdLB

What’s the difference between figures within parentheses and not?


16 posted on 08/14/2016 2:21:31 PM PDT by ScaniaBoy (Part of the Right Wing Research & Attack Machine)
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To: mrsmith

Gallup puts out an annual report of self ID by party. I used that to compare. It seems to be closer to results than the other more acive pollsters when it is used


17 posted on 08/14/2016 2:22:54 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: ScaniaBoy

Parenthesis, negative, i.e. Democrat Oversample. No parenthesis positive, Republican oversample.


18 posted on 08/14/2016 2:23:54 PM PDT by BigEdLB (Take it Easy, Chuck. I'm Not Taking it Back -- Donald Trump)
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To: Nero Germanicus

“The share of independents in the public, which long ago surpassed the percentages of either Democrats or Republicans, continues to increase. Based on 2014 data, 39% identify as independents, 32% as Democrats and 23% as Republicans. This is the highest percentage of independents in more than 75 years of public opinion polling.”
http://www.people-press.org/2015/04/07/a-deep-dive-into-party-affiliation/


19 posted on 08/14/2016 2:24:13 PM PDT by Nero Germanicus
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To: BigEdLB

Good job Big Ed.


20 posted on 08/14/2016 2:24:45 PM PDT by Red Steel
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