Posted on 07/21/2016 1:28:01 PM PDT by Innovative
Donald J. Trump and Hillary Clinton are deadlocked in Ohio, according to a new poll that shows the crucial state very much in play as Mr. Trump prepares to accept the Republican Party’s presidential nomination in Cleveland on Thursday night.
A new survey from Suffolk University finds that Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton each have the support of 44 percent of likely voters, with 11 percent still undecided. When third-party candidates such as Gary Johnson, the Libertarian Party nominee, and the Green Party’s Jill Stein are included, Mrs. Clinton holds a four-point lead.
“It’s absolutely up for grabs,” said David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center.
(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...
Ohio in play - really highlights the douche-baggery of Kasich.
Yes, its going to be a landslide... A huge landslide.
I’ve said from the beginning Hillary’s best case is roughly 15 states and 180 EC votes... that was her absolute BEST CASE scenario... and a more realistic outcome would be about 10ish states and 100-120 EC votes.... At this point, I now believe that 10 ish states and 100-120 EC votes is probably her BEST CASE scenario.
With every passing day it looks more and more like Hillary is facing something along the lines of a 1980 drubbing.
Not only is every major motivator in the electorate in Trump’s favor, but Trump is not going to sit back, he’s going to take the fight to Hillary in blue states, states no one remotely thinks could wind up in play... And he will win many of them and cause Hillary and Dems to burn cash just to hold them taking away resources from other states that otherwise they might be able to defend.
This election is not going to be another Karl Rove election strategy of concede most of the map, try your best to not offend anyone and then just work your GOTV in a handful of states to try to win.
Hillary has spent 2 Million so far with 10 Million more earmarked in PA!! PA!! IN JULY!!! JULY!!! and she is polling a few points down here... she can’t win. ITs JULY... Trump hasn’t spent anything to speak of, and She is behind Trump in PA in JULY!
This thing is going to be ugly... if you are a democrat, Nov 8 is going to be one hell of a tough night.
Look, its not that complicated, who doesn’t know Hillary Clinton and have an opinion of her? Who’s likely to really change that opinion of her? Not many... Trump, most of the reason folks who have reservations about him are reservations built not on reality but spin and labeling. He’ll continue to win support while Hillary stagnates or declines....
Trump just hostilely took over the Republican Party, took out 16 established politicians... Hillary could barely beat back the biggest joke of a candidate they could find... yet somehow she’s going to beat Trump??? Come on folks, stop drinking the spin and wake up.
This thing isn’t going to be close.
I,personally,am hoping that Trump's keynote speech tonight is done in a calm,thoughtful,"dignified" fashion which #1) would be atypical for such speeches and #2) would burst the bubble of the nation's Chris Matthews types (and Hillary herself) who want to react with "tirade","dog whistle" and "frothing at the mouth" (among other things).
Just sayin'....
I fully expect Trump to take NY, NJ and many other NE states, as well as most of the rust belt, this thing isn’t going to be close.
He is, and he hasn’t spent much of anything yet or really even launched his campaign..... Hillary has her post convention bounce, if she gets one, and that’s it, her trajectory will continue downward until November.
Between Trump attracting disenfranchised voters, who get filtered out by a lot of polling when they are trying to find “likely voters”... if you say You didn’t vote in the last election, then you are going to be flagged as less than likely to vote this time... and the Bradley effect around Trump... I generally put him about 3-5 points higher than what polls are showing.
As Trump begins to pull away, and it becomes less socially embarrassing to admit you will be voting for Trump, the bradley effect in the polling will become less and he’ll gain a few more percentage without really doing anything, he’s there now, but polling is missing it.
Never underestimate the power that a government check (paycheck,welfare check,consulting fees,research grants,ObamaPhones,EBT cards,disability checks,etc,etc,etc,etc) can have on election day.This *will* be close...electoral vote-wise at least.
It could even come down to voter fraud in a single state.
Translation: Trumps up double digits
Small minded thinking...
You and others who keep bringing up fraud, or promises of free stuff/pandering will save Hillary have not been paying attention for the last year.
This ISN’T your typical cycle, this isn’t a leftist vs a rightest trying their best to offend as little as possible and conceding most of the map and then just hoping for the better GOTV... this isn’t an ideological election, and that’s what folks have got to stop the small minded thinking.
If it were ideology, Cruz would have wound up your nominee.. if it was party order and connection, Bush would have been your nominee, if it were least threatening... Kasich or Rubio would have wound up your nominee.... That’s not what happened... This is simply a NATIONALIST election vs and Internationalist/Globalist... that’s it... and that’s it. Trump has simply presented himself as I will put America first.. period. Hillary can’t overcome that with fraud, or promises of free crap...
Stop thinking this cycle is ANYTHING like the last 7, its not.
If,by chance,you mean "New England" rather than "Northeast" I guarantee you that Trump doesn't have a prayer anywhere but New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes) and even there he's a long shot.As for New York....don't bet the grocery money on it.
“Trump isn’t going to squeaker Ohio, he’ll take it by at least 5... fraud won’t save Hillary.. she’s done. She’s heading to the worst beating by a democrat since at least 1980... things keep going the way they are, and she may wind up with a night like 1984.
There won’t be any reason to be up late on election night, the outcome will be obvious by 10pm.”
How can you be so damn confident?
I want to see what you’re seeing, then maybe I could get some rest.
See post 48, I am tired of the same tired hack kneed arguments, fraud, free stuff... nope.. this isn’t your typical cycle and folks who can’t realize this are similar to the Cruz backers and never trumpers.
Hillary can’t bribe her way in with this electorate, and she can’t gin up nearly enough fraud to overcome how badly she is going to lose.
Time will tell, I know polling shows Clinton up 10+ in NY right now, but there is a lot of time between now and Nov... Lets see where things are in late August.
Al Franken "won" in 2008 by approx 200 votes in a year where it was firmly established (long after Election Day) that approx 10,000 people who were ineligible to vote there were,in fact,registered.In VA just recently the RAT Governor signed something resembling an "Executive Order" saying that convicted felons can vote in November.And,of course,in 2000 W won by the margin of New Hampshire (4 Electoral Votes) which he carried by something like a thousand votes.
And no,I am absolutely not "Never Trump".We underestimate the utter depravity,amorality (and capabilities) of today's RAT Party at our (and the nation's) peril.
Lets see:
Electorate is clearly anti establishment... Demonstrated on the right by Trump’s rise and win, and on the left by Bernie.
Hillary is a HORRIBLE candidate, with no real campaign experience, she was handed her Senate seat in NY. She couldn’t take down Obama in 08, and couldn’t put away Bernie... She’s just a terrible terrible campaigner, pure and simple.
Movement against Free Trade deals and exportation of manufacturing, this isn’t a political party here, this is intrinsic to the electorate, folks who work and live in this part of the economy know they are getting hosed, and have been.. Hillary can’t escape that she and her husband are part of what created it, Trump is running against it... He’s going to win huge in parts of the electorate and in states that have traditionally been democratic most of the last 6 or 7 cycles. Folks in the rust belt for example.
Illegal Immigration, ties into the previous point... same groups are seeing wages depressed and jobs scarce from this influx etc... they are seeing a nation that isn’t enforcing its own laws and giving preference to folks who shouldn’t be here.. .
Islamic “refugees” and jihadists... don’t think for one minute Hillary is gaining anything but resentment from most of the electorate for her continued embracing of the policies of Obama who have imported these mad dogs here.
Shes on the WRONG side of world events. DO you think there won’t be more Terrorist attacks between now and November? How many more times cans he parade around with that don’t blame Islam its a peaceful religion nonsense?
BLM? Think more cops won’t wind up dead between now and Nov thanks to the lies and pandering of Obama and the left ????
Economics... Most of hte nation that isn’t well connected or part of the political class have seen their wages stagnate of decline for nearly 15 years... Under Obama, average Household incomes are actually DOWN once adjusted for inflation... YOu think this makes a strong case for a party to stay in power?
Alpha Male vs Bitter Female.... Do I really need to explain this one to you? Dangerous world, uncertainty, violence, who are people going to want to follow? A flat out unapologetic alpha male who says he will do is right for the nation, or a bitter female who wants to play word smithing and hand wringing over every bad even that happens?
Political Correctness.. its gone so far the electorate has had enough of it, PC has always been driven by a small minority, and the majority just sort of took it to not cause waves.. but it has gone way too far, and the backlash is coming like a tsunami. This is america, we fight for the right for people to speak unpopular opinions, not try to pass laws to say they can’t say them.
Trump, Trump himself is a dynamic, alpha, asymetrical candidate, he isn’t going to stick to the 100 year old rule book and Hillary and her crowd are completely incapable of the free thinking and execution needed to take him on.
Trump is selling America, unapologetic America... Hillary is selling more of the same old grey area, wringing her hand, political correct nonsense.
End of the day this election is about Nationalism vs Globalism, and guess what? Globalism won’t win.. .its about the people vs the poltiical elites... and guess what, we’ve seen how well the political elites faired during the primary... the electorate has had enough, they’ve had enough of their nation being sold out, they’ve had enough of corrupt politicians and political class not putting the nation first, they have had enough of the poltiical elites thinking this is their country....
Hillary can’t change that, she can’t counter it, and she can’t convince that electorate that she is the right person to fix it... She isn’t going to win, its not going to be close.
And for a more pragmatic view.... Hillary Clinton has spent over 50 Million dollars in the last month or so in FL, PA and OH..... all states she CANNOT lose if she wishes to be president... Trump on the other hand, hasn’t spent much of anything.... and this is JULY folks... JULY... and she’s polling no better than EVEN in any of them.. IF she is only EVEN in PA in JULY after spending millions, she sure as hell isn’t going to massively improve her standing by spending 100’s of millions more over the next 4 months.... She’s basically Jeb Bush... She’ll spend a ton and get nowhere.
Yep and he did it in MN... which isn’t going to to GOP no matter what.. so pointing out MN is rife with D fraud is not going to change the national outcome. MN was the one state who went D in 1984.
Dem’s can’t fraud away 5% plus nationally... it ain’t going to happen.
Go, Trump!
Thank you for taking the time to lay that out.
Very logical and thus heartening.
The question remaining is has the electorate changed enough to render the logic no longer applicable. Compound this with fraud and I become uneasy.
Thanks again.
It will be close and the closest race will be Ohio. Trump has yet to sway over the principled conservatives of Ohio. These are the ones who dislike Kaysick. Despite all the “anti-” rhetoric, Ohio is very dependent on international trade and his a great number of the good kind of immigrants. It is also still somewhat socially conservative as in Bible Belt. They wont turnout for Hillary but they may not turnout for Trump either. Similar to what happened with Mittens.
Always fight like you are losing, and yes the press is going to try to present this as a race until the bitter end... but this thing isn’t a race.
Hillary couldn’t stop Obama, she could barely hold off Bernie, yet you really think she can stop Trump? Wake up and look around folks, stop listening to idiotic talking head pundits on both sides of the aisle... Just look around, don’t cave to fear, trust your gut and fight hard.
Trump single handedly readily takes out 16 opponents and takes over the Republican party... Hillary can barely put away Bernie, but you, you think Hillary can take out Trump? You think in your heart of hearts, that she can remotely beat a guy who just decimated the field... not only that but took out their chosen candidate with the giant warchest in just a few weeks and a handful of comments??
Remember, this was supposed to be Bush v Clinton... Trump vanquished Bush without breaking a sweat, and you think Clinton can fare better?
Sit back and think folks, think about it... stop living in fear. Fraud can cost a state here and there, sure, and I’d say 2% of the democratic vote in some states is probably fraud, but Trump isn’t going to be ahead of Hillary by 2%.. he’s going to be up 5% or more in most state... Hillary promising free stuff? So what, the folks buying it will be the folks who would vote D no matter who the candidate was...
This small minded thinking has to end, if you can’t realize this isn’t an election like any in recent history you just aren’t paying attention.
I see no way Hillary can turn her ship around, she can’t reinvent herself, she can’t change the publics perception of her... her only chance was to be able to paint the republican as a boogie man... and try to get votes for her by being votes against the other guy... well, Trump can’t be painted as much as they try as the boogieman. He’s a known entity.... Hillary is a known entity too, and she’s one that isn’t very well liked.
There isn’t a single factor in this election in Hillary’s favor... Trump is up nearly 20% among independents right now! Today in JULY... in many polls, you can’t win an election if you are losing idependents 60 to 40... Election day Trump will win the independents somewhere in the 3 to 2 to 5 to 3 range...
You think this will be close, then you tell me, how does Hillary convince the clearly anti establishment electorate and the anti free trade working blue collar works Dems can’t win without that she is the candidate who can fix it?????
Simply she can’t, she’s part of the establishment, she helped put these policies in place, she advocated them fought for them, etc etc etc.. she cannot present herself as a change agent or an outsider, and as such, she is toast.
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