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History Predicts How Bad The Post-Brexit Market Volatility Will Get
Investors Business Daily ^ | June 272, 2016 | PAUL KATZEFF

Posted on 06/28/2016 4:27:45 AM PDT by expat_panama

How long will the Brexit meltdown continue? How far will the market fall?

It's impossible to say for sure, of course. But if history is any guide, then you should expect about a month of market weakness and nearly an 11% decline before the next upturn.

WPERS_01_062716This could help guide any post-Brexit investment moves you're weighing.

Friday's 3.6% tumble in the market -- measured by the S&P 500 -- jibed closely with the 3.5% average first-day market decline sparked by all sorts of shocking stock market news since World War II. That includes bombings and assassinations, according to a Monday morning report by Sam Stovall, U.S. equity strategist for S&P Global Market Intelligence.

How much worse will things get? The S&P 500 lost 1.8% Monday. Historically, the market fell a total of 10.3% on average during the first 32 days after a notably jarring event. Capture short term gains with SwingTrader! Try us free for 14 days.

On average, it took the market 113 days after the 32-day downturn to rally back to its initial pre-shock level. Many experts caution mutual fund investors against going to cash precisely because it is impossible to know for sure when the next rally will begin.

Meanwhile, how badly was Wall Street walloped on Friday's compared to other first-day market meltdowns since World War II? Of the 20 postwar events analyzed by Stovall, Friday's 3.6% Brexit breakdown ranked number seven.

Its first-day market impact was smaller than the next deepest dive, which was a 4.4% decline after the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor that drew the U.S. into World War II.

The worst single-day decline was the 20.5% plunge that marked the Crash of 1987 on Oct. 19 of that year.

(Excerpt) Read more at investors.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Foreign Affairs; Germany; News/Current Events; United Kingdom; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: brexit; brexitwins; brixit; economy; europeanunion; germany; globalmarkets; investing; markets; nato; stockmarket; unitedkingdom; waronterror
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WPERS_01_062716

 

 

imho this list was the best part; for some reason ig named Greenspan's ill fated rate hike shock (worst in history) as just "Crash of 1987".

Maybe the author didn't know the facts or he worships Sir Alan.

1 posted on 06/28/2016 4:27:46 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Why all the panic? The rich guys must be laughing their asses off. Not to mention making a killing manipulating the markets.


2 posted on 06/28/2016 4:34:59 AM PDT by refermech
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To: expat_panama

No means a pro here but some cash on the side lines will be added to VDIGX or VWINX in about 2/3 weeks,May even DCA weekly for a while?


3 posted on 06/28/2016 4:35:41 AM PDT by CGASMIA68
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To: expat_panama

I bought 19 months of MREs, 2,000.00 of gold, a water purifier, and put all of my remaining money in Swiss Francs.

Then I realized that nothing has remotely changed here in N. America because of this.


4 posted on 06/28/2016 4:43:19 AM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: 1010RD; A Cyrenian; abb; Abigail Adams; abigail2; AK_47_7.62x39; Alcibiades; Aliska; alrea; ...
http://www.truthdig.com/images/cartoonuploads/blamegame_500.jpg

Good morning and welcome to day three!  Stocks fell another 2 or 3 % in heavy volume and IBD is officially calling this "market in correction" --AKA red light means stop! 

...and that's not all, this morning's future's see stock indexes at -2.26%!

Gold'n'silver look good tho, now trading back up at $1,208.93/$17.67...

Whoa, we got GDP finals, ya can't buy entertainment like this:

     8:30 AM GDP - Third Estimate
     8:30 AM GDP Deflator - Third Estimate
     9:00 AM Case-Shiller 20-city Index
     10:00 AM Consumer Confidence

Short sales anyone? 

Meanwhile:

Brexit Means Much Less Joy for Global Investors - Doug Kass, RealMoney
How Smart Money Got Brexit Vote Wrong - Daniel Gross,Strategy+Business
The Start of Brexit's Economic Disaster - Philippe Legrain, New York Times
Brexit, and the Year of Living Improbably - Niall Ferguson, Boston Globe
O's Greatest Legacy: Entrepreneurship - Vivek Wadhwa, Washington Post
Obama Fails to Rule Out Working on Wall Street - Ira Stoll, New York Sun
'Pro Growth' & Trump Is Very Wishful GOP Thinking - John Tamny, RCM
How Greens Increase Greenhouse Gases - Mark Perry, Washington Times
Is the Middle Class Moving on Up? - Robert Samuelson, Washington Post


5 posted on 06/28/2016 4:45:19 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: VanDeKoik
19 months of MREs,

We had to thro ours out --after about a dozen years on the shelf they don't taste as good....

6 posted on 06/28/2016 4:47:05 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: expat_panama

Uh huh...

The euro-markets are all rebounding.
UK +2.47
France +2.55
Germany +2.03

France and Germany both have bigger losses to erase than the UK does, which were minimal to start with.


7 posted on 06/28/2016 4:49:22 AM PDT by BlackAdderess (A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen... -Emerson)
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To: expat_panama

The DOW futures market is up 176 points.


8 posted on 06/28/2016 4:50:10 AM PDT by SVTCobra03 (You can never have enough friends, horsepower or ammunition.)
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To: SVTCobra03

Wrong. Down 260.51


9 posted on 06/28/2016 4:51:37 AM PDT by BlackAdderess (A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen... -Emerson)
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To: SVTCobra03

Wait, my apologies, you are right and I’m wrong, got the close. Sorry


10 posted on 06/28/2016 4:54:23 AM PDT by BlackAdderess (A foolish consistency is the hobgoblin of little minds, adored by little statesmen... -Emerson)
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To: expat_panama

The elites will make sure us commoners understand the harm done by going against the wishes of the elites. The elites’ investments will be safe while commoners suffer. Once their point is understood things will go back to normal.


11 posted on 06/28/2016 4:57:52 AM PDT by LostPassword
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To: expat_panama
The stock market was real high because of anticipation that Brexit would fail. And now money will go back into stocks that have a good future since, yet again, interest rates on savings will not rise.

I have one stock I like, with some potential to be bought out. Small trader me bought a few hundred more shares of it. There doesn't seem to be much downside risk to it.

What's interesting is that gold and silver are attracting more people. Folks who bought into those the past few years are doin' okay.

12 posted on 06/28/2016 4:57:59 AM PDT by grania
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To: expat_panama

I hope George Soros lost his ass, but I am sure that is not the case.


13 posted on 06/28/2016 4:58:09 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (If the Orlando terrorist does not represent all Muslims, why does he represent all gun-owners?)
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To: refermech
Why all the panic? The rich guys must be laughing their asses off. Not to mention making a killing manipulating the markets.

Yep - and today the futures are up by almost 200 as the "crisis" sits inertly.

14 posted on 06/28/2016 4:58:36 AM PDT by trebb (Where in the the hell has my country gone?)
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To: refermech
Yeah, I'll lose some money like most of us - - but no where near as much as Mitt Romney, George Soros, or the ‘elites’ living in the 5 wealthiest ZIP codes around Washington DC.

Let her crash - none of us should give a damn about the rip-off elites or the hundreds of billions they'll lose.

15 posted on 06/28/2016 5:21:15 AM PDT by GOPJ ("Elites' on both sides of the pond are scared the gravy train's ending - demographic warfare exposed)
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To: expat_panama

The market has become an extension of totalitarian globalist propaganda. Only real people get hurt when they are taken for these rides.


16 posted on 06/28/2016 5:37:30 AM PDT by Caipirabob (Communists... Socialists... Democrats...Traitors... Who can tell the difference?)
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To: expat_panama

History doesn’t predict anything. Anyone who says that is stupid.


17 posted on 06/28/2016 6:00:02 AM PDT by I want the USA back (Media: completely irresponsible. Complicit in the destruction of this country.)
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To: Caipirabob
...the market has become an extension of totalitarian globalist propaganda...

Huh.  Yesterday at the super market I didn't see that at all, but you probably mean the folks who've bot and sold corporation shares. 

We sure hope you're not including the owners of Smith & Wesson here...

18 posted on 06/28/2016 6:01:56 AM PDT by expat_panama
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To: refermech

The media and liberals are once again just hoping for mass pain and suffering caused by total economic and market collapse. But don’t worry, they are fighting for us.


19 posted on 06/28/2016 6:06:04 AM PDT by Trumplican
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To: I want the USA back
History doesn’t predict anything.

Mark Twain

“History doesn't repeat itself, but it does rhyme.”


Mark Twain

20 posted on 06/28/2016 6:08:39 AM PDT by expat_panama
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