Posted on 05/23/2016 1:46:06 PM PDT by Roos_Girl
Moody's Analytics has released its election model and is predicting that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States.
Moody's Analytics has correctly predicted the winner of the presidency since 1980, basing its predictions on a two-year change in economic data in home prices, income growth, and gasoline prices, according to an NPR report.
Moody's analyst, Dan White, said that those three things affect a person's daily life the most.
"Things that affect marginal voter behavior most significantly are things that the average American is going to run into on an almost daily basis," White said.
The Moody's analyst told NPR that a decline in gas prices points to a win for the incumbent Democratic Party.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
I feel strongly that Trump will win, and in a big way.
If the Bitch wins they get a payoff.
She paid them.
This is exactly as I see it.
As far as I last read Bernie has won the popular democratic vote and if it weren’t for the superdelegates that Clinton holds from the DEMe, he would win. I haven’t read the Moody’s on Bernie so I don’t know if they addressed that or not?
Good drugs??? Bwahahahahahahshhaha !
...Moody’s... (Warren Buffet speaks)
Apparently this idiot has not bought gas recently in Southern California.
9/10 illegal alien voters surveyed said they are voting for Hillary Clinton, “Ad mani time ad day pay me to vote!”
It’s not a normal election cycle.
With regard to Moody’s Analytics, I’m happy to hear they have a model. First time I’ve heard of it, and I’ve been in the business for decades. I suspect that they back-forecasted the past, as they calibrated the parameters of the model; rather than first developed a model and then used it, election after election, to forecast the unknown future.
Ray C. Fair of Yale has a peer-review economics-based model and he’s forecasting a big, 10-point victory for the Republicans.
https://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu/vote2016/index2.htm
Fair first published his model in 1978, based on data through 1876; and, he has updated it, in a transparent way, each election since.
If you’re wondering, Fair forecast a close win for Mitt in 2012, and instead Obama had a close win. This is what he said afterwords:
“It looks like the two-party vote share for Obama will be about 51.3 percent. The last prediction of the vote equation below (dated October 26, 2012) was 49.0 percent, which is an error of 2.3 percentage points. The standard error of the equation is 2.5, and so the actual error is about equal to the standard error. An error this small means that when I reestimate the vote equation with the 2012 election added, the coefficient estimates are not likely to change much. There is nothing in the 2012 results that cast doubt on the specification of the equation.”
Those of you who tracked the election know that Mitt was ahead ever so slightly going into the 3rd debate. Then, Mitt fell into the prevent defense and lost that debate. And, then there was Superstorm Sandy and a big hug from the Governor of New Jersey.
While Fair says, correctly, his model wasn’t off by much, it’s a lot easier to accept a forecast that is slightly off when your candidate is the winner, than when your candidate is a loser.
Nearly 1/4 of the Sanders supporters say they will not vote for her.
That could be a sizeable chunk in pivotal states.
Nearly 1/4 of the Sanders supporters say they will not vote for her.
That could be a sizeable chunk in pivotal states.
Could be. But just like Nate Silver they can’t model for intensity or the Trump factor
Do not get complacent
Half of the voters don’t know anything about anything. Are they stupid? Lots of them. The rest are just ignorant.
Sure thing coal country cares about the DiC and the Beast
Interesting! Thank you for the link and info.
Virtually every meaningful precedent is being broken this election cycle.
Get your votes bets in early, and often.
I don’t think American voters are going to turnout to elect the same old same old, which is exactly what Hillary represents.
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