Moody's Analytics: Hillary Clinton Will Win Presidency

Newsmax ^ | May 23, 2016 | Joe Crowe

[Roos_Girl]

Moody's Analytics has released its election model and is predicting that Hillary Clinton will be the next president of the United States. 

Moody's Analytics has correctly predicted the winner of the presidency since 1980, basing its predictions on a two-year change in economic data in home prices, income growth, and gasoline prices, according to an NPR report. 

Moody's analyst, Dan White, said that those three things affect a person's daily life the most. 

"Things that affect marginal voter behavior most significantly are things that the average American is going to run into on an almost daily basis," White said. 

The Moody's analyst told NPR that a decline in gas prices points to a win for the incumbent Democratic Party. 

[saintgermaine]

All I can say is heaven help us. Should this crook become president we might as well turn the lights out. Besides she is not just a crook but a not very bright one to boot. All I can say is, let us hope and pray for miracles as once in a great while prayers are answered.

[SERKIT]

Did Moody’s pay Hillary for a speech?

[odawg]

“Moody’s Analytics has correctly predicted the winner of the presidency since 1980, basing its predictions on a two­year change in economic data in home prices, income growth, and gasoline prices, according to an NPR report.”

Well, that model needs to be updated to reflect things that affect modern life. And, did they factor in the Republican candidates’ refusal to actually fight for the job?

[Biggirl]

After 8 years of liberalism, I sense a growing backlash is coming and will go in the other direction, starting with Trump.

[Ted Grant]

I’d like to think so, and I hope it happens, but it’s a tall order.

[Lexington Green]

Rigged computers gave BHO his 2nd term. Dem and GOPe collusion will rig the vote again in November. The corrupt DOJ will again see nothing.

[SoFloFreeper]

Every election since 1980, eh? Looks like they’re due for a miss.

[knarf]

I guess he never speaks to a human being and certainly not an American, eh ?

[MHT]

Did they predict 2008 in May? They could see around the corner to the economic collapse in September?

[Eddie01]

Moody’s?

When Darth Vader was very young he owned a cathedral which doubled as another cathedral further to the north.

A depth charge was unleased which loosened a rock. The rock fell a mile to a trech bottom below.

While birds soared above a nearby island, two scarubs rolled in the rain on a puddle spotted piece of beach.

Back in Tokyo’s high finace district, a department store owner was running out of sword leather. His anger and panic lead him into the corridor.

Neatly placed ornate ornaments draped down damp blocks of sweating stone.

Waving “good buy” senseless decals adorn the backs of mill and watch workers alike.

Leave the gold and gems to the broke and broken diggers.

Long ago lodes pulled from the hastened brawn and brains left behind for dreams of rugged American dreamers.

[Ticonderoga34]

Moody’s is basing their forecast on the economy, Obama’s popularity polls and gas prices.

Personally, I think already weak economy is going into the tank. Look at retail sales. Obama’s personal popularity doesn’t translate into votes for other Democrats. See the elections of 2010 and 2014 as examples.

Plus Moody’s is thinking that current situation now will be the same in November. That’s probably their out. “Well, if the general election was held in May then Hillary would have beat Trump but we had no of knowing that country would be in such bad shape in November and blah, blah, blah.”

[thoughtomator]

Garbage in, garbage out.

The manipulation of official economic statistics has reached epic levels under Obama. They actually claimed today that we’re near full employment.

The first fatal problem with this particular model is that lower gas prices historically is not due to wholesale demand destruction from a collapsing economy.

[x]

Hmmm ... they say the results could change if the economy changes, but when they give their past results they don't talk about multiple applications of the model in each election cycle. Here's what they predicted last year for this years election:

Did they apply the model at different points during previous election cycles and get different results? That might make one more skeptical about their record of success in the past and about their current prediction.

Still, if they give Trump Florida, Ohio, and Colorado (all states he might not win) and that's still not enough to win the election, you might wonder how Republicans can win this year.

It's more likely the GOP would lose Ohio, Florida, Colorado, or Nevada, than that the Democrats would lose Iowa or New Hampshire or another blue state.

Unless you want to turn the model on its head and argue that the model's awarding the most hotly contested of the traditional swing states to the GOP indicates just how bad things are for the Democrats?

[thoughtomator]

Moody’s famously missed the Great Financial Crisis, yes.

[sargon]

It's more likely the GOP would lose Ohio, Florida, Colorado, or Nevada, than that the Democrats would lose Iowa or New Hampshire or another blue state.

Trump will win Florida, Ohio, Nevada and is already competitive in Pennsylvania and Virginia.

Voter enthusiasm is overwhelmingly on the side of the GOP. Barring something unexpected, this will be a Trump landslide...

Vote Trump!

[Scott from the Left Coast]

Wait a minute...you mean a Wall Street analytics firm is saying that the politician that is bought and owned by Wall Street is going to win the election?

No...I can’t imagine them saying that.

[edie1960]

Thee most pivotal state: Pennsylvania!!!
I also think a strong running mate could be Iowa Senator Joni Ernst; add Iowa. I truly think Trump could swing his home state of New York and a recent New Jersey poll only had Trump down 45 to 38 (Christie factor??)
I pray that all conventional wisdom is thrown out the window this November. After all, we’ve never had a candidate shake things up the way Mr. Trump has this time.

[Sybeck1]

Need to ask Helmut Norpoth

[McBuff]

[The Continental Op]

The press has been pushing this since August 2015. Trump is not the usual candidate. Here are two other economic models predicting Trump wins for those who follow this sort of thing:

http://www.newsmax.com/Finance/StreetTalk/GOP-Republicans-President-White-House/2016/04/04/id/722182/