Posted on 05/02/2016 6:26:21 AM PDT by xzins
The data compiled here on Breitbart News comes from PredictIt, a betting market that creates an almost free market interpretation of what might happen in a given political election.
The Texas senator had been above 50 cents— But, after the (Kasich) deal, Cruz has crashed and despite two desperate measures—the announcement of his vice presidential pick Carly Fiorina and the Pence endorsement—has not recovered.
Almost instantly after the Pence deal, Trump took a commanding lead over Cruz. While at one point on April 24 the markets had Trump under 40 cents, by midday April 25, the markets—in response to the Cruz-Kasich deal—had corrected themselves to have Trump at over 60 cents. Since then, the markets have only benefited Trump with just small upticks for Cruz that undo themselves moments later when he announced Fiorina as his running mate and when he received the tepid backing of Pence, Indiana’s governor.
Trump, with new polling showing him well over double digits ahead of Cruz in the Hoosier State, has now skyrocketed way ahead of the Texas senator there—and is widely expected by financial analysts to win the state on Tuesday. Heading into Sunday, Trump was close to 75 cents—and he is now over 90 cents projected to be the winner.
“The markets have really been ahead of the polling and ahead of the pundits,” Rothschild said. But your best bet for accurate and reliable political predictions, it turns out, is actually the marketplace.”
It appears as though Cruz is headed for an epic defeat on Tuesday in Indiana, If Cruz loses in Indiana, it is widely expect that Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination for the presidency outright before the Republican National Convention in Cleveland in July—and that neither Cruz nor anyone else including Kasich will be able to stop him.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
“Trump will clinch this - and when he does I expect Cruz to endorse him.”
“flame away”
I used to be a Cruz supporter...until I started looking at his positions on immigration and trade vs. Trump’s. No, Trump is certainly not an ideological conservative by any measure, but he is a practical conservative - in conserving our nation’s strength and protecting its (which is to say, OUR) foreign policy and trade interests. His willingness to take on PC in all of its forms, and to REALLY go after Hillary and the Dems, plus his mastery of the media, are huge (”Yuuuuuuge”) pluses. I am, frankly, not too thrilled to see all of the GOPe support for Cruz - I know that they are all whores, and will do ANYTHING to preserve their power and privileges, but this is very disconcerting...and makes Heidi Cruz’ Goldman Sachs connections look downright scary.
I was very happy to see the 2 of them getting along early on, thinking that if Cruz didn’t win, he’d certainly be a good Veep choice (Trump would never take 2nd place to anyone for any reason, so that wouldn’t have been an option). However, as time has passed, and especially lately, I’ve become more and more disenchanted with Cruz’ methods. They don’t match his prior rhetoric, nor (especially) my expectations, as he is a very dirty player. That has been very disillusioning for me.
I’m not so sure that Cruz will endorse Trump. He’s set himself up to have a VERY difficult time walking back his comments about Trump over time (and, of course, that certainly works both ways). Cruz has an ego that is at least as big as Trump’s (and that IS saying something), and saying “I’m sorry” or “Hey, now that I lost, vote for the guy that I’ve been excoriating for the last 6 months” isn’t so easily done. I really hope, for the sake of the country, that you’re right - we need everyone possible on our side (that #NeverHillary side).
It’s going to take me a long time to forget the nasty, malicious, premeditated wholesale lies Cruz told about Trump. If Cruz apologies, ok; it’s over. But who on earth expects him to apologize?
Of course he didn’t get a boost from Pence. Worst endorsement ever. Sounded more like and endorsement for Trump than for Cruz.
“Dear Karl...a limited duration reprisal campaign is NOT a war. You go in. You beat the hell out of them. You leave.
You DO NOT stay to ‘build a nation’ and see thousands of your own get killed.
Are they really this stupid?”
The problem is now, and has ALWAYS BEEN, that he and his ilk think that WE are really this stupid.
That is the essence of the GOPe problem - they think that we are brainless puppets to be manipulated every election cycle, that we don’t think for ourselves, that we have no memories of the promises that they made to us and broke (never having intended to keep them in the first place). Their treatment of the Tea Party as a bigger enemy than the Dems and Obama was prelude to what we’ve been seeing for about the last year. Well, GOPe, in case the message hasn’t gotten through, WE are sick & tired of you, we can’t stand you, we wouldn’t piss on you if you were on fire...and Rove would likely be lit on fire by most of the base, with great pleasure.
It’s a great installment...but I read it yesterday. Not complaining at all, but something this good, you want more of. :)
Yep. If he had stuck to his principles and spoke about his accomplishments and what he intended to do as president instead of taking every opportunity to bash Trump, who knows how the race would look at this point? The wheels are totally off the Cruz campaign now.
“Of course he didn’t get a boost from Pence. Worst endorsement ever. Sounded more like and endorsement for Trump than for Cruz.”
‘If Rove is really that stupid, you wonder how anyone ever won with him as a guide.’
The only reason Kerry didn’t best Bush/Rove was the Swiftboat Veterans for Truth. Recall, too, that Rove never had a civil word for the SVfT. He thought they were too divisive.
best = beat
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I believe you are 100% wrong in this assessment.
Trump has a very limited budget, it is his own money. He has never been a tax and spend other peoples money, he has been a borrow and spend and pay it back and keep the profit person. He is not borrowing for this contest, he is simply trying to do this on the cheap and I think he has been very effective. We do have a representative Democracy. I don't think there is anybody in any political office any smarter than Trump. People said George W was dumb. How silly, he was a fighter pilot. People say Trump is dumb, how silly he graduated Wharton and is a Billionaire 10 times over.
Trump is not a dummy, he accomplishes what he sets out to do, I am impressed.
He will beat Hillary like a drum.
I thought so too! Almost everybody hates Boehner and knows he's a filthy liar. Besides that, he's demonstrated that he's on the Bush team and research shows he ALWAYS HAS BEEN!
Principled stated:
“We have a representative democracy”
This is a false statement. Our founders hated democracy considering a form of Tyranny by majority that is short lived and violent. We live in a Constitutional Republic. There is no legitimate reason in a Republic for the existence of Super and Unbound delegates other then to protect a ruling class.
I listened to it live, and I kept saying to myself, “Did he even once use the word endorse?”
And he didn’t.
It was basically a CYA session.
I just might let the fire burn for a while and THEN piss on them. :>)
Yep. Gotta protect his re-election bid.
The Swift Boat Veterans were my favorite part of that entire campaign.
They gave rise to the jokes about Kerry on clandestine missions up nameless tributaries, rivers, nations.
Just reporting for duty, ya know. :>)
“I remember Christmas of 1968 sitting on a gunboat in Cambodia. I remember what it was like to be shot at by Vietnamese and Khmer Rouge and Cambodians, and have the president of the United States telling the American people that I was not there; the troops were not in Cambodia. I have that memory which is seared — seared — in me.”
However seared he was, Kerry’s spokesmen now say his memory was faulty. When the Swift boat veterans who oppose Kerry presented statements from his commanders and members of his unit denying that his boat entered Cambodia
the last 3 lines were a quote from the WaPo
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A27211-2004Aug23.html
The Swift-Vets were heroes. We owe them so much. I lived in MA at the time, and listened daily to Howie Carr. He loved to play that “seared, SEARED” quote on his show. He found humorous uses for it.
That was the election cycle I learned that Kerry’s nickname was Rice-Butt. Apparently he fragged himself, accidentally, in the rump with hard rice kernels. Word was he applied for and received a Purple Heart for these hinter ‘injuries.’
I think it’s a combination of stupid - and very shallow thinking.
Superficial thinking vs strategic thinking.
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