Only in media and Cruzer fantasy land is a 53%-22%-18% Trump win considered "bad news".
Enjoy watching Cruz finish dead last in a few days, and then again some more on April 26. ToasTED.
Posted on 04/15/2016 5:25:20 AM PDT by Iowa David
Donald Trump is poised to win New York in a landslide on Tuesday but he could leave as many as two-dozen critical delegates on the table by failing to win an outright majority in every corner of the state, according to new congressional district-level polling provided to POLITICO.
http://politicalmachination.com/poll-new-york-2016-presidential-primary-2/
(Excerpt) Read more at politico.com ...
what two more people , come on name them who was running in TX at that time.
There were about 15 candidates on the TX ballot.
No question.
I live in the People's Republic of Maryland.
If Trump gets an absolute majority in NY, which could easily happen, he gets all the delegates. If not though, NY delegates will be decided by congressional districts. The republican candidate for Congress from the 16th Congressional District in the Bronx got about 3% of votes in the last election, and there are even registered republicans there. If Cruz can get a majority of those very few republican votes, that gives him all three delegates from the 16th, which is as many delegates as Trump will get for winning a majority of votes in districts that will help in the general election. The difference is that Cruz met face to face with a large proportion of interested republicans in the Bronx, an impossible task in less lopsided districts.
Even three delegates will matter, and that worries me. If Cruz can take even a couple congressional districts and also deny Trump a statewide majority, that will make his strategy matter a lot. Considering how little time and money Cruz has invested in NY, going for the districts no one else would bother with really is is a brilliant strategy. He's not proving he would be the best in the general election; he's gaming the system for New York's primaries. And he's doing it as well as is possible against a candidate as strong as Trump in that state.
Be serious.
There were not 13-14 people that Texans were agonizing over.
You are just making excuses.
And AGAIN if Cruz was the darling of the state, then it would not matter of there were 500 people.
“Keep it up with the ad hominem attacks, but I know your game”
You don’t even know the proper usage of ad hominem. Goodness knows what game you are talking about.
Per Ballotpedia, there were 13 candidates on the Texas primary ballot.
Here's a copy of the link: https://ballotpedia.org/Presidential_election_in_Texas,_2016#Primary_election
And he's holding back on the investigation:
Lyin’ Ted Cruz Campaign Refuses To Give FEC Details of Campaign Loans From Goldman Sachs…
I’m a born-and-bred Texan of almost seventy years and I can assure you I’m not enamored with the Canadian.
but how many was running at the time?
When a person wins the general election, they get to be President of the whole country.
The rules you stated reflect something similar to that of the general election. The Colorado rules are a far cry from that.
We’ll find out next week.
When they pushed the undecideds, it shrinks to 9%, Trump is roughly at 51%, Kasich 26% and Cruz 14%.
With that said, the Politico report is wrong in one respect: If Trump is held under 50%, Cruz wouldn't get a single delegate of the 14 statewide delegates that are up for grabs because he didn't meet the 20% threshold.
Trump would then get roughly 2/3s of the statewide delegation with a split of roughly 10-4 or 9-5. (We'll assume 10-4 because Trump more than doubles Kasich's support.)
Trump is in position to win all 27 CDs. He's over 50% in 10 of those districts. He's under 50% in 17. Kasich is second in 15 districts and Cruz 2 (CD 9 and 10).
The MOE is terrible >6% in CD 7 (D+34), 8 (D+35), 13 (D+42) and 15 (D+43) where there aren't that many Republicans.
The split would be 74 Trump, 19 Kasich, 2 Cruz in this absolute worst-case scenario.
Assuming a uniform shift if Trump actually breaks 50%, it's 80/13/2 as 4 statewide and 2 CDs would move into the Trump > 50% category. If Trump gets to 53% (RCP average), it becomes roughly 84/10/1. At 55%, it would swing to 85/9/1. At 60% (best case) you'd be looking at 92/2/1 and even the three remaining CDs where Trump allegedly runs worst (CD 10, 15 and 24) would be marginal for 50%+1.
I've been saying all along that Trump will likely take somewhere between 80-90 of the delegates in NY and nothing here indicates otherwise.
Also note that these guys were off significantly in Wisconsin, but the CD level stuff is extremely helpful to figure out what districts to look at on Tuesday.
When they pushed the undecideds, it shrinks to 9%, Trump is roughly at 51%, Kasich 26% and Cruz 14%.
With that said, the Politico report is wrong in one respect: If Trump is held under 50%, Cruz wouldn't get a single delegate of the 14 statewide delegates that are up for grabs because he didn't meet the 20% threshold.
Trump would then get roughly 2/3s of the statewide delegation with a split of roughly 10-4 or 9-5. (We'll assume 10-4 because Trump more than doubles Kasich's support.)
Trump is in position to win all 27 CDs. He's over 50% in 10 of those districts. He's under 50% in 17. Kasich is second in 15 districts and Cruz 2 (CD 9 and 10).
The MOE is terrible >6% in CD 7 (D+34), 8 (D+35), 13 (D+42) and 15 (D+43) where there aren't that many Republicans.
The split would be 74 Trump, 19 Kasich, 2 Cruz in this absolute worst-case scenario.
Assuming a uniform shift
If Trump actually breaks 50%, it's 80/13/2 as 4 statewide and 2 CDs would move into the Trump > 50% category.
If Trump gets to 53% (RCP average), it becomes roughly 84/10/1.
At 55%, it would swing to 85/9/1.
At 60% (best case) you'd be looking at 92/2/1 and even the three remaining CDs where Trump allegedly runs worst (CD 10, 15 and 24) would be marginal for 50%+1.
I've been saying all along that Trump will likely take somewhere between 80-90 of the delegates in NY and nothing here indicates otherwise.
Also note that these guys were off significantly in Wisconsin, but the CD level stuff is extremely helpful to figure out what districts to look at on Tuesday.
Nice spin, Iowa David.
Only in media and Cruzer fantasy land is a 53%-22%-18% Trump win considered "bad news".
Enjoy watching Cruz finish dead last in a few days, and then again some more on April 26. ToasTED.
He didn’t get 50% in WI either if I recall.
So the MSM is now saying Trump won’t get 50% of the vote?
Sit down...
Doesn’t matter. It’s still his home state. He won his Senate race with a majority of the general electorate. You’d think he could scare up a majority in the GOP presidential primary, notwithstanding a couple three extra rapidly fading candidates. Wrong. Doesn’t say much for Cruz. He ran in the teens in the must win states of Florida and Ohio, and is polling the same in the must win state of Pennsylvania. The guy’s a loser, face it. And a completely unlikable a-hole.
"Looks like"? Based on what? Your wishful thinking? Every reputable pollster has Trump above 50% in New York. Literally his worst poll is this one, at 49%. He's going to crack 50% statewide easily.
Meanwhile, the poll in your breathless POLITICO piece has Ted Lose at 14% in New York. Ouch!
Oh yeh its always going to be bad for Trump..I’m sick to death of the lefturd propaganda.
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